A Different Look at The NBA's Rookie Class

Now that the season is over, it’s time to reflect a little on what we learned about the class of 2009 now that the regular season is complete. The class lost its top pick before the season even started but still had excitement scattered throughout the league. But instead of ranking these players on who had the best season, I’m going to rank them on who I’d want from here on out.

There is a key difference between the two. For instance, Emeka Okafor had the best rookie year, but everyone saw the potential in Dwight Howard that made him more desirable in the long run. Or the fact that even though Michael Beasley had more talent and decent numbers, Brook Lopez was in much greater demand because he looked like he could compete on a good team in the future – and Beasley doesn’t have that competitive bone by the way. Even though Adam Morrison was second in rookies PPG, no GM was fooled thinking he was a player in this league.

And lastly before the list, each player has a comparison that is either because of their future skill level, role, or combination of the two. Now the list:

1. Blake Griffin – Best case scenario: Kevin Garnett

He still is the player that has the highest ceiling from this class. We know from his play in college that he plays with a fire that teammates feed off of and will surely elevate the play of the Clippers next season. His jumpshot was developing as his college career wound down, and aside from his injury concerns, is the only question mark from him being an elite player.

2. Terrance Williams – Best case scenario: Scottie Pippen

Williams proved down the stretch of the season the talent is there. But unlike a talent like fellow rookie Tyreke Evans, he can help a team out in a variety of ways, most notably on defense and distributing the rock. The numbers weren’t there for the majority of the year, but he found a way to adjust his game to the NBA. The one thing that could prevent him from being a top notch sidekick is his attitude, which was problematic at times during the season.

3. Ty Lawson – Best case scenario: Chauncey Billups

The top PG coming out of this class (more on that below). Being his biggest question mark coming out of college, Lawson has proved his jump shot could translate into the NBA game, shown by his 41% 3 point percentage. He has given the Nuggets a safety blanket in case Billups is not with the team in the near future. It’s amazing how he can fit in with quite the set of personalities and get everyone on the same page. He excelled attacking the basket and remained efficient in the process, something other PGs were lacking. And defensively, the team doesn’t miss a beat when Billups comes on the floor.

4. Darren Collison – Best case scenario: Chauncey Billups

Once an untouchable beast, Chris Paul has now become available with the play of the rookie out of UCLA. You know you have a talent on your hands when that happens. He proved scouts wrong saying he peaked in college and had no room for improvement in the NBA. On top of the leadership, the thing that sets him apart from the rookie PG bunch is his defense. Collison is a very willing defender who knows how to set the tone on that end, something UCLA is wishing they still had.

5. Stephen Curry – Best case scenario: Ray Allen

Although playing PG in Golden State, Curry will eventually be moved over to SG on a good team – and won’t be asked to carry the load. If he can ever become the third option on a team, like Allen is in Boston, they will have a very good role player in their lineup. He overcomes the size issue by his ability to knock down shots, put the ball on the floor, and his effort on defense.

6. James Harden – Best case scenario: Manu Ginobli

Harden has not received the minutes most thought he’d get coming in to the league, but he has shown the potential. He has the set shot, the ability to create, and can also defend. He will be a sixth man of the year candidate as early as next year. And given the supporting cast, will be put in a role that he has a chance to succeed in.

7. Jrue Holiday – Best case scenario: Derek Fisher

As a nothing spectacular but no holes type of game on offense, Holiday has a future in the league. But the reason he made this list was his defense. He showed he has the potential to be a lockdown defender in the league. As the youngest player in the league, he still has room to grow, to improve his shot off the dribble. Even though his stats didn’t stick out at anyone, he has the type of game that can lead a team to a title, much like Derek Fisher has done over the years.

8. Serge Ibaka – Best case scenario: Horace Grant

Ibaka is a perfect fit for the Thunder. He won’t be asked to score much and he fully understands his role. He protects the basket, cleans up the boards, and scores his points either in transition or off of offensive rebounds – exactly what a superstar like Kevin Durant needs around him in the future. His face up game was starting to come around, and although I doubt it will ever be top notch, if it did he’d shoot up to the top five of this list.

9. DeJuan Blair – Best case scenario: Udonis Haslem

Blair was a classic example of a good role player. Already having various knee problems, it’s widely known his career is limited in potential and length. However, the work he does on the block and boards didn’t go overlooked around the league. I for one am looking forward to his matchup on Dirk Nowitzki in round one.

10. Marcus Thorton – Best case scenario: Eddie House

Thorton proved can score in this league. He has the jump shot that team would ever turn down but combines it with a rare fire inside. Overcame his size issues with a great effort level (I can only imagine Michael Beasley if he had the fight of someone like Thorton). What earned him a spot in the top 10 over Taj Gibson was he could combine it with some defensive ability.

The first thing that sticks out is that Tyreke Evans is not on this list. That Brandon Jennings is not on this list. And I’m going to jump right in to that.

Let’s start with Evans. Although he statistically had the best rookie season out of the entire bunch, this list is comprised of who I’d want going forward. He is going to continue to score and collect some rebounds, but that is all I see in him. He is not a PG. His assist ratio was one of the worst in the league. He also is not a good shooter. When one brings up his name, the only subject they want to talk about is the way he can attack the basket. Never is the term ‘defense’ or ‘passing’ used in his scouting report. I see his path following one of Corey Maggette. A slasher that left school after one year who can put the ball in the hole but offers little else. The only way he joins this list is by moving to SG, developing a jump shot, and playing within his game – and I just don’t see all those happening.

As far as Jennings goes, he brought some leadership to a team in desperate need of it. He brought some wins to a team that was on the outside looking in of the playoffs. But the Bucks resurgence had more to do with Andrew Bogut than Brandon Jennings. It’s easy to give the rookie all the credit but fans will clearly see such was the case when the Bucks get annihilated by the Hawks. But just remember this, when his shot was falling, everyone was excited. He burst on to the scene with the 50 point night. He is a great player when his shots are falling (see game one of the playoffs series) – but that’s like saying Larry Hughes is a great player when his shots are falling. After the All-Star break he calmed down and shot 36% from the field. Although I like Jennings chances more than Evans, he has a long ways to go in the efficiency column before I’d take him over Lawson or Collison.

The collective theme is that neither of these two players stick out as championship caliber, while the ten listed above do. Which brings me to the second thing that sticks out about the list – each and every “best case scenario” player has a championship ring. That’s the best way to determine whether someone is going to make it in this league. Take a second and ask yourself if he could have had a role on the following squads: Kobe’s Lakers, Garnett’s Celtics, Duncan’s Spurs, Wade’s Heat, Billups’ Pistons, O’Neal’s Lakers, Jordan’s Bulls, or Olajuwon’s Rockets. Evans, for instance, didn’t fit any of those squads, whereas a player like Stephen Curry could fit a few. I’d rather want a Rajon Rondo, Ron Harper, or Derek Fisher running point as opposed to an Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, or Mike Bibby – but that’s just me. As for you, would you take Evans over Lawson or any of the ten listed above?