2010 NBA Playoffs: A Cautionary Tale for LeBron James and the Cavaliers

As the NBA Playoffs get underway, the Cleveland Cavaliers—fresh off a second straight season in which they led the league in victories—are clearly one of the favorites to win the championship.

At the beginning of the season, most experts tapped Cleveland, Orlando, and the L.A. Lakers as the teams to beat—an easy prediction to make, and one that has held up.

For Cleveland, especially, the pressure is on to deliver a title. LeBron James has turned in another MVP-like season, and acquisitions like Shaquille O’Neal, Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Leon Powe have made the Cavs a more formidable opponent than they were a year ago.

Not so fast, however. A glance at recent NBA history reveals a pattern that is not promising for Cleveland—or any other franchise without a championship in their past.

Take all the talk of parity in professional sports, and throw it out the window. In the NBA, especially, the concept has been a myth. When it comes to winning the ring, a handful of teams have dominated the league over the past 30 years.

Beginning with the Lakers of Magic, Kareem, and company in 1979-80, only eight teams have tasted championship success in the last three decades.

Two teams—the Lakers and the Bulls—have won half of those 30 championships. Add in the trophies claimed by Boston and San Antonio, and four teams have won 22 of the 30 titles.

In the past decade alone, seven of the 10 championships were claimed by the Lakers (4) and the Spurs (3).

The harsh reality of the NBA is that, somehow, the rich seem to get richer.

Since 1979-80, the Lakers have won nine championships. That’s nearly one-third of the titles, claimed by one team.

The Bulls of the Michael Jordan era won another six. Boston and San Antonio each won four.

During that span the Detroit Pistons claimed three titles, and the Houston Rockets—in part, thanks to Jordan’s disappearance from the league—won two.

Miami and Philadelphia? They’re practically afterthoughts, with one championship apiece.

What does it mean?

If you’re the Lakers, history is on your side. If you’re Cleveland or Orlando, however, it’s nail-biting time. The odds are, quite simply, stacked against you.

That’s not to say that Boston or San Antonio are favored over the Cavaliers or Magic just because they’ve won multiple titles before.

It does, however, reveal a simple truth: Winning an NBA championship isn’t easy.

It is far more likely, however, when you’ve done it before.

That’s why the Lakers, despite their late-season missteps, should be favored as the playoffs begin.

Cleveland appeared to be the team to beat a year ago. Then their weaknesses were revealed by Orlando’s efficient performance in the Eastern Conference finals, and summer vacation began two weeks early for the forlorn Cavaliers.

To their credit, they did not rest on their laurels. They went out and restocked, and are a much better and deeper team.

Even so, an Achilles heel has emerged in recent weeks—that of poor free throw shooting. As a team, Cleveland shot just 72 percent from the line this season, the worst average in the league.

Guess who was second from the bottom? Orlando.

Aggressiveness and the ability to get to the line are paramount in the postseason, and the Cavaliers and Magic exhibit both. However, if they don’t convert their free throw opportunities, it may cost them dearly.

They’re likely to meet in the Eastern Conference finals, where their poor free throw percentages would simply cancel one another out.

Whichever one advances to the championship series would be vulnerable, however, if matched against the Lakers, Mavericks or Nuggets, all of whom are more accurate from the charity stripe.

It could get especially ugly against the Mavericks, who led the league by converting 81.6 percent of their free throws.

The fact remains that the path to a first NBA title is never easy. That skews the odds against teams like Cleveland, Orlando, Denver, and Dallas.

It’s why the Lakers, with their 57 wins and history of NBA Finals success, remain the favorites to win it all.

It’s also why the 50-win Spurs and Celtics should not be overlooked. The Spurs, in particular, are dangerous, since their four titles came with current cornerstones Tim Duncan and Greg Popovich in tow.

When a team’s postseason pedigree includes multiple championships, all bets are off. History reveals that they clearly have an advantage on the road to the NBA Finals.