The Lakers' Magic Number Is Eight, Not 16

For this year’s version of the Lakers, forget about the number 16 in the playoffs (the amount of victories a team needs to take the NBA title), the important number is eight.

That is the number of nearly healthy bodies they need to even think about getting to the Western Conference title series let alone the NBA Finals.

Right now the Lakers have about half that number.

Observers have commented that the Lakers are limping into the playoffs.  That isn’t quite true.  They are not limping; they are being wheeled in on a stretcher. 

As for their defense, it has gone comatose and should be in intensive care.

Among the regular starters, the Lakers have only two players—Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol—who are nearly a hundred percent.

Among the fairly healthy reserves, there is Shannon Brown, a sometime starter, along with Josh Powell, Adam Morrison, and D. J. Mbenga.  The latter two have seen little playing time this year, and Powell has shown a great deal of inconsistency when he gets into a game.

The injured starters who are still nursing their wounds include Kobe Bryant (ankle, knee, and fingers), Ron Artest (a mild ankle sprain), and Andrew Bynum (a strained Achilles’ tendon).

Among the front-line reserves that normally see significant playing time, Jordan Farmar has a strained hamstring, Lamar Odom is nursing a sore shoulder, and Luke Walton had surgery to repair a nerve in his back several months ago.  Last night, his back stiffened up again in the final regular season game against the Clippers.

Even worse than Walton’s stiff back is the injury to reserve guard Sasha Vujacic who suffered a severe high ankle sprain in the second quarter of last night’s regular season finale with the Clippers.

The Vujacic injury is perhaps the most significant of all, considering that Farmar strained his hamstring the night before in a win against the Golden State Warriors.

With 36-year-old Derek Fisher and leg-weary Kobe Bryant having to race around the court against the likes of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in their first-round matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Lakers are really going to need two healthy reserve guards who can come in and give them some vital minutes.

So far, I see only one—Shannon Brown.  Although Farmar has promised he will be ready to go Sunday, hamstrings and iron wills are not always compatible.  Usually the hamstrings win out.  Even the slightest amount of pressure could re-injure the muscle.

For hamstrings, the best prescription is rest and more rest. 

I have no idea whether the Lakers will make it to the Western Conference Finals let alone the NBA Finals, but I do know this.  Should they come out of the first round victorious, I would consider it a significant achievement. 

Even though the Thunder are young and inexperienced, they have the speed and the talent to send the Lakers packing on an early vacation. 

There are only two questions that concern the Thunder: their youth and their lack of playoff experience.  But for the Lakers, there are as many questions as there are players.

Will Kobe Bryant regain his usual playoff effectiveness after only a week’s rest?  Will Andrew Bynum even make it through his first practice with the team?  If so, how quickly can he regain his physicality and become a force under the boards? 

Is Ron Artest up to the task of guarding the game’s best scorer—young Kevin Durant?  Will Artest get his three-point shot back?  He was shooting threes at nearly a 40 percent clip before the All-Star break.  In recent weeks, his percentage has plunged to less than 25 percent.

Can Jordan Farmer run at all without re-injuring his hamstring?  How many meaningful minutes can Derek Fisher play and will he be able to slow down Russell Westbrook?

If Bynum is able to play, Odom will join Shannon Brown on the bench.  Odom is usually very effective coming off the bench, but what about Brown?  Lately, he has been more consistent as a starter than a reserve.

Also, Powell, Morrison, and Mbenga—can any of them be counted on to spell the starters without much of a drop-off in performance?

Fortunately, I don’t have to answer any of these questions, but Phil Jackson does.  How well he is able to answer them will mean the difference between another championship and an early exit. 

Just getting the banged-up and disoriented Lakers past the dangerous Thunder in the first round could mark one of his greatest feats in his illustrious coaching career. 

Jackson is the key factor beyond a doubt.  How he manipulates his starters’ minutes and finds the most effective eight-man or possibly nine-man rotation will determine the outcome of this series.

How well each player listens to Jackson will determine the guys who will return to the Lakers next season.