Originally posted at kylebunch.com
NBA fans and experts—I’ve got a guarantee for the 2008-09 season. I must apologize to my Lakers and fellow purple-and-gold fans before I make it—but as much as I love the Lake Show, this is just science:
The Portland Trail Blazers will finish with the best record in the Western Conference.
I issue this promise not simply because of the awe-inspiring collection of young talent they have assembled. From Roy (who, mark my words, will be this year’s CP3, vaulting into the upper echelons of NBA super-stardom in ‘08-09) to Oden to Aldridge to Bayless, everyone knows this team is stacked.
If top young basketball talent were supple human flesh, Kevin Pritchard would be the Buffalo Bill of the NBA. That’s no revelation.
I’m betting big on the Blazers because of several intangible factors, which will more than compensate for the team’s relative lack of experience. In every sport there are those teams, perched at the right intersection of opportunity and readiness, whose preparation gets a nice assist from external circumstances beyond their control to propel them past reasonable expectations.
The Blazers are in that magical spot this year, thanks to these six factors:
1. Kobe’s pinky (and postseason chip on his shoulder)
With their finish last year and the return of Bynum, the Lakers are certain to start the season as the odds-on favorites to win the West. And I do believe that by the time the Western Conference Playoffs are through, the purple-and-gold will rise to the top again.
But while Kobe and the Lake Show will start 2008-09 with something to prove, that proving ground lies exclusively in two spots: Boston and the NBA Finals. The Lakers could sport the best regular season record in history next year, but it won’t help them live down the embarrassment of games four and six if they can’t get it done in the playoffs.
Kobe’s got his MVP; he’s proven he can lead a team to the top of the regular season heap. Phil Jackson is a master of pacing his teams for the postseason.
Add in the injuries—Kobe’s pinky, which, unless there’s been a second opinion I didn’t hear about, still needs surgery and Andrew Bynum’s still-untested rehabbed knee—and if the Lakers know what’s good for them, they will pace their output and try to peak in April-June, instead of December-March.
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2. New Orleans, CP3, and the Loss of the Surprise Factor
New Orleans enjoyed a good two or three months before anyone took them seriously last season. Not going to happen this year.
Sure, Chris Paul is young and potentially still getting better. And Tyson Chandler, David West, and Peja form a nice core that will keep this team competitive for some time.
But everyone who comes to play them this year is going to bring their best. They may step up, respond, and remain in the hunt—but do you really want to bet on them improving upon their 2007-08 next season?
3. Aging Western Powerhouses
The Suns and Mavericks each made blockbuster deals last year, both of which just increased the miles on their respective squads. And the Spurs are so old, they’ve started making out a Bucket List.
Even if more time in Phoenix enables Shaq to gel with Nash and the Suns core, you really think he’s playing more than 60 games this year?
And while J. Kidd may be good-to-go in more games than Shaq, did you see his defense against the top PGs of the West? Chris Paul, Deron Williams, heck even Derek Fisher—they all ran circles around him last year.
Is a summer spent playing ball with USAB and not resting up (see next item) really going to improve those results?
4. The Olympics
While Western superstars Kobe, Pau Gasol, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Jason Kidd, and Yao Ming (and potentially Manu Ginobili and Dirk Nowitzki too) are off gallivanting in Beijing, B. Roy and the Blazers will be back in Rip City, working out and getting a bit of rest.
You’ve already got fresh, young legs—now you have the chance to rest while the rest of the top teams have to wear out their best players in pursuit of Olympic glory? It’s downright unfair…and Portland must be salivating over the advantage it confers upon them.
5. Raef Lafrentz’s contract
OK, this one isn’t exactly an intangible or an external factor—NBA GM’s covet expiring contracts like the Lafrentz monstrosity almost as much as LeBron covets a New York home address—but it might be the biggest and perhaps most-overlooked thing the Blazers currently have going for them.
Not only do the Blazers have the most-talented young team in the league, in Lafrentz’s expiring $12 million deal, they’re sitting on the single best piece of trade bait out there. If Mitch Kupchak managed to turn Kwame Brown into Pau Gasol, what could Pritchard do with Raef’s soon-off-the-books millions? Frightening.
(And equally or perhaps even more scary—Pritchard or Lafrentz this year for a top veteran or a couple role players, still have free agent dollars to spend with Steve Francis’s expiring $17 million contract, and next year he’ll get to do the same thing with Darius Miles’ expiring $9 mil per deal.)
6. Clay Bennett and the Sonics debacle
The final dark horse external factor that will buoy the Blazers in 2008-09 comes by virtue of the Sonics' relocation. Where do you think all those spurned Seattle fans will turn? Sure, some of them have rooted against Portland for years and may take awhile to warm to the Blazers.
But there’s literally millions of alienated Pacific Northwest basketball fans—some of the most die-hard round ball lovers on the planet—who will have a void to fill. You think a majority of them are going to turn to Golden State or Minnesota for their pro basketball fix? Clay Bennett spurned the beautiful girl, and chased her right into Paul Allen’s hands, with a jilted lover mentality to boot.
Portland’s about to score a bunch of jilted lovers, eager to show Bennett and the former Sonics what they’re missing. And they’re going to scream loud enough to be heard in Oklahoma City.
A lot of you probably think I’m crazy, even with the reasons I listed above. But that’s the beauty of long shot predictions—you’ll have to wait to talk to me in April.
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about 1 month ago
Great article and I agree 100%. The Blazers have SO much talent that I hear they have to even cut down on some of their upcoming stars to give the 8 best on the team more minutes. The Blazers are not only going to win one championship in 1-2 years, but they are the next big Dynasty with this kind of talent.
about 1 month ago
Nice article Kyle.
What do you expect from Spaniard Rudy Fernandez the upcoming season in Portland?
He is one of most talented guys here in Europe. Will he have a chance?
about 1 month ago
I'm not sold on the Blazers being the 1-seed, though I think they will more than likely be playoff bound this season. Excellent article. Just the right blend of humor and solid facts ("And the Spurs are so old, they’ve started making out a Bucket List" is gold). Also, unlike most people who make bold/crazy predictions, you aren't confrontational. I look forward to more.
about 1 month ago
Kobe's pinky wont be a factor, if he can play 40 or so games last season with a messed up pinky and not miss a beat then with a surgically repaired pinky he'll be just the same.
New Orleans doesn't have to improve on their record they just have to keep it. Even if they lost 2 or 3 more games they'll still be a top team in the West.
Portland won 41 games last year. That means they will need at least a 16 win increase (at least) to claim the top spot. That wont happen. Greg Oden is suppose to be there, but you don't know what he will do this year.
A number one seed is too high for a team that has never finished higher than 10th in the West with it's current players with. Look for at best a 3 seed, at worst a 7 seed.
from about 1 month ago
Last year NO finished in the second place after finishing in 9th the year before (Paul's 2nd season). The point is that it is not that unreasonable for a team with a young stud to rise to the top. In Portland's case, the main studs are Roy, Aldridge and Oden whereas NO has Paul, West, and Peja. Portland should surprise many teams next year as NO did last season.
from about 1 month ago
Actually - in Portland's case the main studs are Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Fernandez, Bayless, Outlaw, and Webster. They have seven legit all star calibre players, whereas NO has Paul and two good support players. Portland also has some good role players and a deep bench. I don't think the youth thig will hurt them as much as some people do though. Rudy has tons of international experience (still has to adjust to the NBA). Roy, Aldridge, Webster and Outlaw are now fairly well experienced. And don't forget about Steve Blake. He is a solid PG and can get everyone involved. Portland will win at least 55 games this year.
from about 1 month ago
Travis Outlaw is average at best, and Martell Webster is not even good. Aldridge is overrated. Oden is untested. They're a pretty good team, probably still worse than New Orleans at every single position. That is not a recipe for the best record.
about 1 month ago
Nice article, but the Buffalo Bill reference makes me wonder about your judgment. Using "subtle human flesh" in a sports article is odd, but we can just call it quirky, and just look at your argument. I agree the Lakers won't have the best record in the west, and Kobe's health will be a factor, not sure it has to be the pinky. I mainly believe that the Lakers overplay their skill level. Kobe is out of this world, but Bynum was shelfed at the end and Gasol came late. Odom is decent, but that bench is sub-par at best. I think their lack of talent off the bench will catch up to them. I think the Hornets are for real, and they don't have to sneak up on anyone, but they're still young at the core, and susceptible to a slight let down. The Aging powerhouses is right on, but I think they'll stick around for about 3 years, not at the top spot though. Olympics may factor in, but most of these guys play or train year round anyway. Good point on the contract, a valuable vet even a star could come over packaged with a young guy. Look for Denver, Chicago, New Jersey to be selling at the deadline. They should get some northwest fans, but it's a long commute to get into the gym and cheer from Seattle. Major problem I see with the top spot is the youth factor, of course. These guys have no ceiling, but right now they don't have a floor either. Injuries. Would have been nice to have a beast in the middle without an Achilles heel (or knee). Finally, Roy deserved to be an all star last year, but so did a number of other players who could have easily pushed him out. The top teams are loaded with all stars and MVPs. The Blazers will be markedly better, and will bump a team out of the playoffs, but still may struggle for that #4 spot. Last year, the Warriors were 9 games out of first place and didn't make the playoffs, the other 7 teams factored in that 8 game spread. So tough in the west.
about 1 month ago
Nice article, I think Portland has the players to create one of the best dynastys ever in the near future. I can't see them going first next year, but I would definitely think top 5.
about 1 month ago
They plan to use Lafrentz's expiring contract themselves to drop under the cap next summer, would have to be a real deal to trade it.
As for Miles he is on a medical disabled retirement and has been waived. His salary is currently off the cap. If he finds a team and plays 10 games after being suspended for 10 games, then his salary goes back on the cap. Another reason to keep LaFrentz's
The Seattle TV market may be available for at least the broadcast KGW games and radio.
Might have to wait a year before the nba goes for that...
Their much more realistic goal is to win 50 and make the playoffs.
Laurel T
about 1 month ago
Well, Pau gasol trades don't happen often, and if there was a trade, whoever the blazers are dealing w/ are going to ask for atleast Bayless, possibly Aldridge or someone else, similar to what the Grizzlies asked for in Crit, or the Twolves asked for in Al jefferson. Additionally, which teams want to get under the cap by '10? NY, NJ, possibly Oklahoma TBAs (although they have not officially said they would), there are a few others, I just cant think of them off the top of my head.
But look at NY and NJ, Oklahoma will be far under the cap at that point in time. NY is a city full of clowns, their players have 0 trade value. NJ has Yi, but hes far from the trading block, it seems they are not putting Vince Carter on the trading block, because they wouldn't trade him for Wally Sczerbiak's expiring contract. Not sure if they will trade Vince Carter, after all they do have to put fans in the seats.
Bynum's knee injury was far from serious, what about Greg Oden's knee? He was out for the whole season, and he is still out. Kobe's pinky? Did you see Kobe & the Lakers roll past the nuggets, jazz, and spurs and finish best in the west with ease? btw, in case you missed it, Bynum wasn't there.
NO losing their surprise factor? who cares about a surprise they are good!
The Olympics won't be a big deal, they will have some rest, and then go to training camp.
about 1 month ago
Utah will finish with the top seed. They were a .500 team before Korver got there, and then they were basically unstoppable. They will put together a great road record next year, and combine that with their 4-5 losses at home and you're looking at a team that is pushing 60 wins and the top spot in the west....
from about 1 month ago
How will they put together a great road record?
What makes you think they'll only finish with 4 losses at home again?
Its a different season and just because you did something last year doesn't mean you'll do it again this year. Look at the Bulls, and Heat for example.
I don't see Utah as the top seed.
about 1 month ago
Nice article, but Portland won't be a #1 seed. Everybody assumes that Oden is gonna come in and dominate the paint, especially on defense. But, he's gotta test that knee out and hopefully he hasn't lost a step. Don't see them higher than a 3 seed next year.
Secondly, you mention them getting cap relief by trading away LaFrentz. But, don't forget that they will owe Darius Miles about 9 mil if he plays more than 10 days either this year or next year, and I hear he's trying to come back this coming season. So, somebody may pick up and that cuts into the cap stash. But, if they keep their talent together, I could see them winning a few championships as they mature and develop more. The future is definitely bright.
27 days ago
Do the Blazers finish in top 5 in West? Maybe but if I had to I'd bet against it.
19 days ago
I agree and disagree with you. I agree that the Blazers will be good and that they will be a team to be reckoned with, but I disagree with you that they will get the top seed. I actually think I'd take the Blazers in a 7 game series over the Lakers for the same reason Boston beat them. To say the least, I'd consider it. I would expect this Blazers team to have strong rebounding advantages over most teams (including the lakers) while also getting a ton of points in the paint. Greg Oden will make them a defensive giant, and that's as close a formula for post-season success as there is, not to mention everyone's unselfish. If they could only get a true point guard, they would be absolutely unstoppable.
15 days ago
LMAO. HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHH The Blazers will be lucky to even GET IN TO THE PLAYOFFS. let alone top in the west....HAHAHAHHAHA wow, you are the worlds largest fucking homer..hahahahahah you fail...quit writing, you're fukcing GARBAGE.
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