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The Patriots pick at #22 is the hot commodity of this draft, because the cost is not to high - (a 2nd + a 3rd round pick) and for a lot of teams the #22 pick could be key to getting the player they want, without sacrificing their 1st rd pick:
- Tim Tebow: Buffalo, Denver,
- Colt McCoy: Cleveland, Rams, Seattle
- Jimmy Clausen: Minnesota, Buffalo, Seattle
- Dan Williams, Arizona, San Diego, Detroit, Kansas City
As I see the draft none of the top DE or OLB are going to be there at #22. Therefore I think the Patriots will have to trade up - (Kindle, Dez Bryant) - to get prime value that meets a big need.
Otherwise I think they will get more value for money in the 2nd round.
The wild card for me is if the Patriots have a burning red hot love for Tebow as their next franchise QB. As far as I can understand it might be complicated to settle the new contract with Brady (look at NFL.com for an explanation) this means that the Patriots might have to have that new QB in place for the 2012 season (they can tender Brady for a year).
If the Patriots were to trade down the outcome could be something like:
- (top 10 2nd rd) Aurelious Benn or DeMaryius Thomas WR
- (#44) Daryl Washington ILB
- (#47) Dexter McCluster WR/RB/KR/PR
- (#53) Dorin Dickerson TE/RB/WR (LB)
- (mid 3rd round) Alex Carrington DE
- (#119) Austin Lane DE/OLB