A Magical Ending To LeBron's Stay in Cleveland?

Last year’s NBA Playoffs was extremely thrilling all the way to Kobe and the Lakers taking home the championship. I can only hope that this year’s race provides just as much excitement. One series that will exceed these expectations will be the Cavaliers and the Magic when they meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals. And yes, they will both be there.

The Magic dominated the series last year, even though winning 4-2 with some close games might not indicate that. If it wasn’t for LeBron’s heroic three pointer, it’d be a whole lot clearer. Throughout the series, the Magic consistently executed on the offensive end whereas the Cavs were spotty. Dwight Howard had a great series as Big Z was the only player for Cleveland who had a hope of containing the big fellow. They tried Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao but with little success. Varejao, one of the best defenders in the league, proved he had little worth against a team like the Magic. He has no chance against Howard inside and has too much trouble with Rashard Lewis on the outside. When Howard came off the court, Gortat proved his worth last year as he was able to hold his own against Cleveland’s front court – and is now overpaid for what he did in the playoffs. On the perimeter, LeBron was defended magnificently by a combination of Pietrus and Lee. They forced a ton of turnovers out of him and forced his surrounding cast to step up to the plate. His teammates failed him last year and that was the main reason the Magic moved on to the Finals. Mo Williams was one of the critical disappointments that series, even with Jameer Nelson injured, couldn’t take advantage of Rafer Alston at the PG slot.

Since last year, there has been a significant amount of roster changes for two great teams. The Magic lost Hedo Turkolgu to free agency and then traded away Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston to obtain Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. To shore up their depth, they also obtained Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, and Jason Williams. They’ve now become a very deep team as a result. The Cavs were able to add to critical pieces this past year in Shaquille O’Neal, Antawn Jamison, and Anthony Parker. All three could have come in handy last year. To sum it up, both teams are well improved off of last year’s squads.

Most of the nation, to include the media, is in favor of the Cavs for this series. The one factor they love to point at is the acquisition of Jamison at the deadline. This was supposed to be the move that puts the Cavs on top – the guy that is going to open things up for LeBron on offense and be able to defend Lewis on defense. I don’t see it happening. Although he has played well with this team, he’s never been a part of a successful squad in the playoffs. I’m very hesitant to call it a huge momentum shifter because I just don’t think he’ll have impact on this particular series. As far as opening up the offense, it’s not like Lewis ever was a key asset on the defensive end of Orlando. LeBron is still going at Howard once he beats his man and the first help defender. So that argument is pretty worthless. As far as Jamison’s offense, his goal will be to offset Rashard Lewis, let alone out play him. These two guys will have little to do with the outcome of the series but if I had to choose, I’d still go with the younger set of legs in Lewis.

Shaq was brought in primarily with one goal in mind, the defense of two individuals – Howard and Gasol. He’ll limit his first target’s effectiveness inside, provided he can stay on the court. Shaq only averaged 23 minutes a game and a foul every 7 minutes. Considering he’ll be playing against a much stronger opponent and throw in the fact he hasn’t played in awhile, it will be tough to stay on the court for 30 minutes. On the other hand, if the Cavs can get Howard in foul trouble first, they can go with a small-ball lineup and have an advantage. We all remember what happened in the close out game of last year’s Conference Finals when Dwight went for 40 points against the Cavs. If he’s just as effective because Shaq becomes a liability, the Cavs are in trouble.

Losing Courtney Lee will hurt the defense of the Magic, but that is where Matt Barnes comes into play. He along with Mickael Pietrus need to match the performance of last year, where they didn’t stop LeBron but they sure did contain him. If they can repeat on the defensive side and knock down their long range attempts at the other end, Stan Van Gundy has to like his chances.

Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass give the Magic a complete set of forwards off the bench that can shoot the ball. As a result, they won’t have to go with Tony Battie or play their starters for 40 minutes on a nightly basis. This will be especially beneficial to Rashard Lewis as his performance suffered last year with his lack of breaks.

The trade for Vince Carter was done in the thought that the Magic didn’t have anyone on the perimeter that could create for himself when the offense broke down. Although he is averaging fewer points per game in a new role on this great team, he still has the ability to light up the scoreboard on any given night. Since the All-Star break, he has been playing very well on offense. He is getting 1.38 points for every shot taken, a very high number for a SG. To put that in perspective, Kobe is scoring at a rate of 1.26 points per shot this season. So if VC can continue to be this effective in the flow of the offense, the Magic will have succeeded in their offseason trade. However, having not been on a great squad since he came into the league,

 the question is will he accept that role he has in place or will the shot attempts grow with the spotlight of the series.

The man no one is talking about is Jameer Nelson. Even with Nelson absent in last year’s series, Mo Williams still wasn’t able to hurt the Magic in any way. That gives me a lot of confidence in a healthy Nelson to dominate that matchup. Mo could prove me wrong, but I doubt it. I don’t think he’ll be able to stop Nelson in the Magic’s various spaced-out offenses they run.

Bottom line, both of these two teams have improved since they last met with it all on the line. It is the one series to be looking forward to the most outside of the Finals. Matchup wise, here’s how I see the lineups producing:

PG: Nelson vs Williams – Magic, just remember how poor Williams was last year

SG: Carter vs Parker – Magic, expect Carter to embrace his role as a role player to Howard

SF: Barnes/Pietrus vs LeBron – Cavs, obviously

PF: Lewis vs Jamison – Push, expect a very mellow matchup between the two

C: Howard vs Shaq – Magic, very important matchup

Bench – Magic, a very deep squad

Although the majority of the nation is siding with the Cavs, I just don’t believe they improved as much as the Magic this past year. Aside from LeBron’s heroic three pointer, last year’s series could have been a lot worse. Not only will Cleveland lose to the Magic in 6 games again, they will lose LeBron to free agency very soon.