First off, a hearty congratulations to Justin Morneau for winning the Home Run Derby. I normally do not watch things like this, but I was forced to check up on it every once in a while.
The obvious storyline is Josh Hamilton and his record-breaking 28 home runs in the first round, but Morneau showed great consistency and eventually beat out the slugger.
While I do think Morneau deserves the honor of the award, I think the story of the night belongs to Hamilton.
In this third and final installment of how I would go about "fixing" the Twins, I will address the hole at third base.
Fixing the Twins No. 3: Sign Adrian Beltre, Whatever the Cost
Mike Lamb was signed this past offseason to fill the hole at third base and provide some much needed punch in this lineup. The previous year, with the Houston Astros, he hit a solid .289/.366/.453 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI.
That move seemed like a major improvement over the inept Nick Punto. He started 108 games at third base for the Twins in 2007 and recorded a pathetic line of .210/.291/.271.
I think it would be safe to say that the majority of Minnesota fans were pleasantly surprised when they found out that Lamb would start at third base in 2008. As it turns out, Lamb isn't doing much better than Punto did in 2008. In fact, with a line of .220/.257/.292, he is almost doing worse.
The good news is that Brian Buscher has emerged as a potential third baseman for the Twins this year. Buscher had a brief tryout with the major-league club in 2007, but made his first extended start in 2008. Through 24 games, Buscher has a line of .313/.337/.410.
While better than both Lamb and Punto, Buscher certainly lacks in the power department. He only has one home run on the year, and has a total of three in his major-league career.
A slugger at third base may be just the addition the Twins need to get over the hump and beat out the White Sox for the AL Central.
With the need for offense at the left corner established, let's discuss defense.
Lamb, in his 54 third-base starts this year, has only four errors, taking his fielding percentage to .970. The fielding percentage of an average player in the same number of opportunities is only .960, so Lamb is above average in that category.
However, Lamb is below the league average in the same number of opportunities in range factor. Punto is also below average, but Buscher is 21 points ahead.
Punto has only eight starts at third this year. He hasn't given up an error, but his small sample size is deceptive. Buscher, on the other hand, has 23 starts at third in 2008, and has three errors. The fielding percentage of an average player with the same opportunities is seven points higher than Buscher.
While not as big of a need as offense, the defense could always stand to be upgraded. Enter: Adrian Beltre.
It is common knowledge now that Minnesota has inquired to Seattle regarding Beltre. The Mariner third baseman is an obvious upgrade at the plate, as Beltre is hitting .259/.329/.440 through 92 games. He also has 16 home runs and 46 RBI.
With the absence of Michael Cuddyer (possibly for quite a while) the Minnesota lineup has a noticeable dip in production against left-handed pitchers (save for Alexi Casilla).
Beltre, a right-handed batter, has a huge increase in numbers when facing a left-handed pitcher. When Beltre faces right-handers, he is currently hitting .234/.288/.410. Against lefties, however, his numbers drastically improve to .351/.467/.554.
Beltre is also a defensive improvement.
While just about even with the league average for the same number of opportunities for fielding percentage, he is noticeably higher in range factor. In fact, his RF/G of 2.59 is just below last year's AL third base RF/G leader, Melvin Mora (2.90).
Beltre is one of the best third basemen in the league, and is always in the running for the Gold Glove award. With a Beltre/Punto combination at third, Minnesota would have one of the best defensive duos at that position in the entire league.
There shouldn't be a question that Beltre is an improvement over the current options the Twins have at third base. The only question that remains, then, is how much Minnesota would have to surrender to acquire such a talent.
Beltre is set to earn $13.4 million in 2009. While that number may immediately turn some people off, let's not forget that Minnesota can afford it.
After the loss of both Hunter and Santana, the Twins' opening-day payroll in 2008 was $14,506,734 less than it was in 2007. Also, this contract needs to be put into perspective. Justin Morneau is set to make $14 million a year from 2010-2013.
Seattle's payroll, however, has been steadily increasing since 2004. They would love to unload a big contract like Beltre's on a team like the Twins. In fact, their main purpose would probably be to simply unload the contract without having to pay a significant portion of it.
In a perfect Mariner world, though, they would like to get a few good prospects in return for Beltre, as they attempt to reload their farm system. If Terry Ryan was still the GM of this Minnesota team, this possible deal would have been thrown out the window long ago. However the new GM, Bill Smith, is about to show a lot about his temperament.
Is he a mover and shaker at the deadline? Or is he more like Ryan, who tends to lay back and watch the action unfold? Whatever the case, I believe that Beltre should at least be pursued before the deadline gets too close.
Beltre would immediately transfer the Twins from a borderline team to a team that is a threat to go deep in the playoffs.
Minnesota will have to give up at least one top prospect if they expect a chance at Beltre, but I think they can stay away from having to give up too many good players, if they offer to pay the majority of Beltre's contract.
I would predict an opening offer of Brian Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, and another minor leaguer for the slugging third baseman. Another possibility is getting rid of Buscher, if we have plans to acquire a 29-year-old third baseman.
What do you think are some possibilities at third base for the Twins? Will Minnesota go after Beltre at all? Should they?
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about 1 month ago
Yeah, they should. This season we've put our faith in four people at 3B: Buscher, Macri, Punto, and Lamb.
Buscher and Macri- they're simply unproven in the long-term. Both of them looked marvelous, but we've only seen them for a month's worth of games...or less.
Punto- Great defense...but on offense he's mediocre sometimes and terrible other times.
Lamb- Not a huge defensive player, and not a huge offensive player.
Yeah, maybe we can't afford Beltre in a few years if he becomes the next A-Rod. But the 2009-2010 rotation is going to look so good it scares me, and a run at the Series might not be out of the question. But the Twins have been without somebody they can honestly call "their third baseman" since the Koskie era--since he left, it's been mostly by committee.
I think we're going to need another prospect in the bullpen soon. I would only be willing to part with one pitching prospect...probably Mulvey. Macri or Buscher going away would be fine, too. And Seattle seems to want Beltre gone. This could get interesting, and you're right Andrew, Terry Ryan would never go for this. But the Twins don't have Terry Ryan anymore.
about 1 month ago
Lamb played with Houston last year, not the Rangers.
I think it'd be an easy Twins decision if Beltre would cost a prospect or two...but that's not the case. Seattle will need at least one immediate-impact player for someone like Beltre, plus a prospect. With the likes of Denard Span moving through the ranks, Michael Cuddyer might be the first on the list to go (especially it being the case the Young is a natural right fielder, he could move into Cuddy's spot). And with about $5m a year going Cuddyer's way vs. the 13.4 to Beltre, it'd still be a money saver for the Mariners.
Another option is moving a starter in the Minnesota rotation. Maybe Hernandez?? This would allow Liriano to move from AAA to Minnesota, as it seems to be time with his recent outings (7-0 in his last 8 starts and had over 20 consecutive innings without an earned run).
In short, I think Minnesota would have to give more than you think.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the catch, and the comment.
about 1 month ago
Sure! Seattle loves taking our washed-up starters!
I like the idea of Cuddyer and Hernandez for Beltre.
from about 1 month ago
Lol, you are right. Silva and Hernandez would make a great 4-5 punch, right?
about 1 month ago
I like Cuddyer, but if you can package Cuddyer and Hernandez for beltre, I'd be pretty tempted.
from about 1 month ago
If I could give up Cuddyer and Hernandez for Beltre, I think I would in a heartbeat.
from about 1 month ago
I think we'd have to throw in a year's supply of Big League Chew (and a few Latin Techno CDs to keep Silva continually happy over there) for the Mariners to willingly accept Livan in any sort of deal for Beltre...
from about 1 month ago
I'm toying around with a three-team deal that would involve Livan, Cuddyer, and Hughes. I'll work on it and have it up late tonight.
about 1 month ago
The Mariners obviously dont need another innings-eater that has a horrible ERA. We've already got 3 of those that we've grossly overpaid.
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