It's NHL Playoff Prediction Time Again

Well a year has passed since I was a soothsayer for the NHL playoffs and now I must put on my conical hat again and predict who will win each playoff series.

I was 7-1 in the first round last year and then mediocre the rest of the way.

This year will be tougher to predict because there are many new teams in the playoffs this time and it is uncertain how they will do. Also many teams that should have had an easy first round instead drew their worst possible opponent.

Like last year, certain teams and players have extra pressure on them which may affect their lineups and their personal futures in the off season should they fail to perform as expected. So like last year, I'll list the players and teams who have even more to lose if they don't advance to the second round before I make my picks.

Players Under The Gun

Nos. 1 & 2: Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau

Which forward line did most Canadian fans unofficially vote as the worst on Team Canada? You got it, Joe, Pat, and Dany. Dany can be forgiven if the Sharks choke because it's his first year, but not Joe and Pat. After the repeated failures and sub-par, underachieving performances of past years, I speculated that general manager Doug Wilson would really shake up the team and deal either one or both of his underachieving playoff non-stars, but instead he opted to try to upgrade their performance by adding Dany Heatley. Whether that is enough or if that was the correct policy will now be officially tested. So far, the decision to trade Thornton to the Sharks by the Boston Bruins, which left many people wondering if the Bruins management had gone mad, has instead made them look like geniuses. If the Sharks underachieve again, Wilson may finally be forced to pull the trigger instead of repeatedly giving them their last chance, final chance, last, last, chance, etc.

3. Evgeni Nabokov

Joe and Pat are joined by their teammate, Evgeni, who was the goaltender in possibly the worst game a Russian team ever played against a Canadian team consisting of NHL pros. His status as a No. 1 NHL goalie plummeted, and the slump the Sharks had during the latter part of the regular season hasn't helped. He's also getting older and like Joe and Pat, he might be playing for his future in San Jose.

4. Roberto Luongo

What a difference a bad playoff round against the Chicago Blackhawks makes. Before that series, Luongo was seen as the strength of the Vancouver Canucks. Now he's seen by many Canucks fans as the team's weakness despite winning the gold medal for team Canada. Luongo was brought in not merely to win a playoff round for the Canucks, but to be able to compete equally with the big boys like Detroit, and bring home the Cup. He has the most to lose of any Canuck in the first round. If Los Angeles ousts Vancouver because of bad defense and goaltending, there could be a major shakeup in the offseason.

5. Alexander Ovechkin

Ovechkin shouldn't be on this list, but he made it because he played on a bad Russian team in the Olympics in which Canada was able to make him invisible. He probably won't have a problem against Montreal, but if any team takes the trouble to study the Canadian game plan and figures out how it was done, he might run into serious problems in the later rounds against more talented teams.

6.  Martin Brodeur

Brodeur is now nearing 40, and lost his starting position on team Canada. He's still a great goaltender, but the Devils have been put out too early, too frequently in latter years. He has to show that he still has it to take the Devils deep into the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, the Devils drew the Flyers in the first round, a team that has a winning record against New Jersey, so there is a real chance that Brodeur could go home early again. He can't let second-string goalie Brian Boucher out-duel him.

Teams Under The Gun

San Jose Sharks

It almost goes without saying that a team with three players listed on the pressure-cooker list should itself be on a team list of that nature. There was pressure on the team last year to at least make the third round, and instead it failed to advance past the first round after being treated like marshmallows by Anaheim. Only Dan Boyle looked like he belonged on the same ice as the Ducks. This year, there is no heavy hitting Anaheim team to face in the first round, but if they lose again, it will be even more damning. A loss might not only mean the end of the obvious culprits listed above, but several veteran defencemen, except Boyle, and possibly the coach and general manager too.

Vancouver Canucks

It won't be too much of an upset if Los Angeles wins, but there are high expectations in Vancouver, especially since Henrik Sedin won the Art Ross Trophy. Vancouver imagines itself as one of the elite teams in the Western Conference and a first-round loss would be viewed as a significant step backwards.

Nashville Predators

The pressure should be on the Chicago Blackhawks, but instead it's on the Predators because of off-ice issues. The team will be seen as just spinning its wheels, despite the improved regular season play, if they don't win a playoff round. So they must win to connect with Nashville fans, media, and corporate support. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem likely against the Blackhawks.

New Jersey Devils

After three Stanley Cup championships, the Devils keep exiting the playoffs too early despite a great regular season. They are nearing the end of the Martin Brodeur era, and need to show their fans that they still have a good team even after he retires. Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise will be heavily counted on to produce in the playoffs. Many of their top players are in their mid-thirties and an early exit again might lead to a massive retooling.

So here come the predictions...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Washington—Montreal

It's bad enough that Washington has the most regular season points, but what is worse is that Montreal is easily the worst team entering the playoffs. Burdened with the uninspired coaching of Jacques Martin, who was hired to please French-Canadian nationalists/separatists, Montreal came close to being ousted by the Toronto Maple Leafs in their last game on their own ice. They also lost to the powerhouse Islanders and Hurricanes. The only Canadien that is worthy of the logo is goaltender Jaroslav Halat. All Washington has to do is let Montreal "play its game", and that should be enough. Montreal has lost a team-record eight straight playoff games and that should continue. Montreal made a huge shakeup after its hateful loss to Boston last year. This year, they will probably have to do more of the same, including the coach again.

Washington in four

New Jersey-Philadelphia

New Jersey could not have drawn a worse opponent for the first round from among the bottom four teams, except maybe Ottawa. They managed to oust Pittsburgh for the division crown, but Philadelphia has had their number all year. The unknown factor is Ilya Kovalchuk. He was brought in to make an offensive difference on a defensive team. He has longed to play in the Stanley Cup playoffs on a contender and now he is in a situation where there is probably more pressure on his head than he deserves. He has to find a way to get to Brian Boucher regularly. Philadelphia also has youth on its side. Long ago, Brian Boucher managed to carry the Flyers to the Cup semifinals. He managed to win a pressure game against a supposedly superior Henrik Lundqvist on Sunday. If he can find the same magic, he might oust Martin Brodeur like Cam Ward did a year ago. It is obvious from last year's playoffs and this year's Olympics that Brodeur is no longer the difference-maker he once was.

Philadelphia in six

Buffalo—Boston

Like New Jersey, Buffalo drew the wrong opponent. They would have been happy to play Philadelphia or Montreal, but instead got one of the two bottom teams that have dominated them. Goaltending means nothing if your opponent knows how to beat you consistently, so the edge that Ryan Miller gives the Sabres is gone. Tuukka Rask, whom the Leafs foolishly let go, has consistently wanted to prove himself in the NHL, and now he gets a chance to do it in the playoffs. The Bruins have trouble scoring goals, but somehow have managed to beat Buffalo consistently despite Miller. Playing a physical game will open up lanes of attack. Still, Buffalo should win, but...

Boston in six

Pittsburgh-Ottawa

These teams are meeting for the third time in the Crosby era, and the series is tied 1-1. In the first meeting, an experienced, confident Ottawa easily handled the new kids on the block on the way to the Stanley Cup final. In the second, a demoralized Ottawa easily surrendered to Pittsburgh who took Ottawa's place in the final. Ottawa is the best team of the bottom four, but got probably the worst team, the defending Stanley Cup Champions. On paper, this seems a mismatch, but Ottawa is not the demoralized team of two years ago and split its series with Pittsburgh this year, so they belong on the same ice. But which Ottawa will turn up? The one that can win over ten in a row or the one that can lose over seven in a row? If Ottawa plays with spirit and is not intimidated by the stars on the Penguins roster, there could be upset. Ottawa is also better coached than two years ago, so I think the "good" version will turn up for most of the games. I would not be surprised by an upset but...

Pittsburgh in six or seven

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Jose—Colorado

Oh, if only Peter Forsberg and Joe Sakic were still on the Colorado forward line, and Patrick Roy was still in net. Then it would be a no-brainer. Still, it does point out the difference between these two teams. Colorado has a history of winning playoff series on occasion, and San Jose has a history of losing series, including some to Colorado. Dan Boyle is a good player and Dany Heatly came through on occasion for Ottawa. Then there is Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. There is Evgeni Nabokov who was Team Russia's goalie against Canada. If unknown Colorado can draw on its heritage, if they play physically tough like Anaheim did last year, if they can get to Nabokov, if they can get goaltending like Roy used to give, if San Jose plays like San Jose....Despite the point difference, Colorado did split its series with San Jose. It couldn't happen again, could it?  Could it? This is a long shot, but...

Colorado in six

Chicago—Nashville

The NHL is cursing this matchup because they wanted the Predators to have an easy path to the second round and finally win over the Nashville fans, media, and corporate support. Sadly, the great achievements the Predators made this year will be ignored and forgotten if they don't win this round. That's unlikely, given the Chicago offense. The Predators only chance is to out-goaltend the Blackhawks which is supposedly their Achilles heel. It won't be a sweep but...

Chicago in five

Vancouver—Los Angeles

Vancouver is desperately trying to prove that they are one of the elite teams in the conference. Last year, they easily handled St. Louis in the first round, but had their dreams punctured in the second by Chicago. The shocking thing was that goaltending, supposedly the team's strength, was a weakness. Consequently Roberto Luongo's status in Vancouver has plummeted despite winning the gold medal for Canada. The Vancouver attack is better than last year thanks to Henrik Sedin. In fact, it is now being advanced that offense, not defense, will win the Cup for Vancouver. Los Angeles is just glad to get back in the playoffs and nobody really knows how they will do in this situation. They have a good team and have two things in their favor: They have nothing to lose, and Vancouver's playoff nerves. There could be an upset, but I think Luongo will regain enough of his old self and the Sedins will provide enough offense for the Canucks to prevail.

Vancouver in seven

Phoenix—Detroit

Some people are claiming that a successful Phoenix playoff run will save the franchise. In fact, what Phoenix does on the ice will have little effect on what happens off it. If Glendale can't find an owner that satisfies them, then it doesn't matter how far the Coyotes go. In fact, the NHL would have been better served if Columbus, not Phoenix, had made the playoffs. If no investor believes that the Coyotes can make a profit during the regular season, then they will be moved even if they win the Stanley Cup. It will be interesting to see what the effect will be, if the city council votes and accepts proposals from two franchise suitors today. But if the NHL was hoping for a miracle, their hopes are gone when the Coyotes drew the experienced, hot, Detroit Red Wings in the first round. The well-coached Coyotes will need all that savvy to prevail against a team that won the Stanley Cup two years ago and was the finalist last year. After a slow start, Detroit has found itself and is playing like it did in each of those years. Phoenix's miracle season will end, and possibly the franchise, too.

Detroit in five or six

So that is what my crystal ball tells me. I was 7-1 in this round last year. I don't have the same hopes this year, but I still hope to do reasonably well.