7. Avoid Drafting Big Men from Unsuccessful Colleges and Conferences
As a Warriors fan, this one hits close to home. Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley) and Adonal Foyle (Colgate), anyone?
More than any other position, big-man skills need to be tested against elite competition. It is absolutely vital to see where these guys stand, because the adjustment from college to the NBA is usually hardest for a big.
The development period is often much longer, even for elite prospects. You know this rule will come into play when NBA GMs fawn over a guy because of his height, offering wisdom like “you can’t teach size.”
Very true, but if anyone could teach basketball, they would have learned by now.
The reality is, coming from an inferior league and playing against inconsistent talent hampers the development of any athlete.
And don’t forget the most important part—big men are prime candidates for college coaches looking to recruit a Final Four team. If they have one iota of talent, they’ll likely get picked up somewhere.
A legit big man is too valuable and too rare at the college level to get missed. If your guy slipped through the cracks in college—he’s probably not worth your time.
Recent Offenders: Alexis Ajinca, Mouhamed Sene
6. Players Who Wilt on the Small Stage Will Wilt on the Big Stage
This one is tough to enforce—no one wants to hold it against the guy who blew it in the most important game of his young career. But at the same time, credit is due to those players who elevate their game at the biggest moment.
If two players are relatively equal in ability and pro-projections, yet one played the role of Mr. Big Shot on his team, or had the responsibility of being the go-to option, you’ve got to go with Mr. March.
Recent Beneficiaries: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade
5. Beware of Highly-Touted Import Prospects—Especially the Big Ones
Players from abroad are getting quite a few looks from GMs nowadays, and despite the frequent misses and reaches on draft day, many prominent basketball minds are convinced that such players can accurately be forecast.
Maybe they can, but the embarrassing success rate of GMs thus far leads me to believe that they’re not learning fast enough.
Every year, an import arrives in the lottery, and every year since 2002 (when Yao was drafted), we’ve been let down. When your name gets run alongside Andrea Bargnani and Darko Millic, you’re not looking good.
Conversely, lesser-known imports seem to have a surprisingly high success rate. I don’t know why or how, maybe it’s a coincidence.
But I do know one thing—guys like Manu Ginobili and Andrei Kirilenko didn’t even get invited to the green room.
See Also: Rafael Araújo, Nikoloz Tskitishvili
4. Youth is Not a High-Priority Skill
How many times has your club passed on an upperclassman from college because, although he was better than another player, he was a year or two older?
It’s true that younger players may very well possess more potential. But in the NBA, a career could last over 10 years—especially for a lottery pick.
It's not football, and we’re not racing against a four-year window. This isn’t baseball, and we’re not looking for pitchers with fewer than 800 innings pitched. This is basketball, and these kids can play every day if they want.
Give the older kid a chance—potential might not ever turn into anything on the court. And most importantly, people develop at different rates. Just being younger doesn’t even guarantee a guy has more potential.
With a high draft pick, don’t be in a rush to take Marvin Williams over a Chris Paul. Unless the gap in potential is immense, you’ve got to take the wire-to-wire stud, even if he wasn’t born in 1990.
Why not? Marvin Williams
3. Do Not Draft Unproductive Players, Period
DeAndre Jordan is going to be so bummed to hear this.
Unless the kid is a projected top-three pick, if he has enough potential to even garner pro-interest despite being unproductive, you should be wary of the fact that he’s coming out.
Also, the college game is not as intense, bruising, or as competitive as the NBA game. Simple logic—if he’s not good at the lower level, don’t draft him over a guy who was, and then expect him to outperform said more-successful player.
When put that way, it seems kind of silly, doesn’t it?
Please see: DeAndre Jordan
2. Ability Should Trump Attitude
This one is always hotly debated, as well it should be. You will have guys who bomb out of the league due to nothing but their horrible character. This happens in any sport, and any profession.
However, when drafting a guy you expect to help improve your team, you’ve got to weigh the good against the bad. I’m not saying character issues should be ignored—guys like Chris Washburn and had clear warning flags all over their pre-draft bio.
However, when you have a truly special talent, with a manageable character flaw, you’ve got to take the chance. In the NFL, a guy like Carmelo Anthony might have fallen to the middle of Round One—just look at Randy Moss. And what if Michael Beasley fell to the Knicks?
My point is that some flaws are permissible, and should almost be expected. Not everyone can be a goody two-shoes, and even if they are, it could be a front.
Look at how much bad press Kobe Bryant got for a few years before recently reviving his image. You run the risk either way, so make sure you’re at least getting your money’s worth on the court.
Example: Michael "B-Easy" Beasley
1. Always Draft the Best Player Available, Never Draft for Team Need
By far the most important rule of NBA drafting also seems to be a barometer of NBA prospecting success. Teams who draft best player available tend to (gasp) get the best player available. Teams who draft by need frequently get busts.
Call it NBA Draft karma. But in the NBA, where prospects are getting younger (despite the one-year amateur rule) and less experienced, it is increasingly unlikely that the team “one player away” could fill that role with a single rookie.
Also, consider your options. Want to have a great player who you don’t know what to do with? Or a lesser player who fits into a role perfectly, but can’t produce at an elite level for several years anyway—by which time you’ve had ample opportunity to fill the need elsewhere, or had new needs pop up.
Adhering to this rule is the number one way to ensure your team doesn’t end up as the sad-sack franchise that passed on the likes of Melo or Wade to get Darko.
Honestly, blowing the draft is one thing. But letting that Hall of Fame prospect—who everybody knew was a Hall of Fame prospect—fall through your fingers because you wanted more depth at point guard is a very hollow, very empty feeling. It might be worse than losing the NBA Championship.
comments (12) write a comment »
write a new comment
2 months ago
Good article put how can you mention players that haven't even played in the league yet? If they don't turn out the way you think, then that will prove you wrong. Use proven players.
However number seven i don't agree with, Dennis Rodman, Ben Wallace, Karl Malone, Willis Reed, and others all come from small school in small conferences.
2 months ago
I don't think Michael Beasley has an attitude problem either.
2 months ago
Great article. I do agree with Michael about number 7. Just look at some recently: Paul Millsap, Al Thornton, Rodney Stuckey. The attitude one is a tricky proposition when there are real attitude problems (Beasley's were a joke). Artest didn't work for the Bulls and Latrell didn't quite work out for PJ and the Warriors. My Knicks are guilty of some of these mistakes. Lets see:
#5: Fredrick Weis, Maciej Lampe
#4: Took Weis; Passed on James Posey
#3: John Thomas (The one I remember best though wasn't a Knick pick; Jamison Brewer, Auburn)
#1: Renaldo Balkman (Rondo goes right after him), Weis [(boy we really screwed up there according to these rules)(next pick: Ron Artest)]
Then there's the EPIC 1996 draft. Knicks had the 18th, 19th, and 21st picks: John Wallace, Walter McCarty, and Dontae Jones. The 20th pick: Zydrunas Ilgauskas. The 22nd pick: Roy Rodgers. The 24th pick: Derek Fisher. Whoops.
2 months ago
I like the article. I don't have a problem with 7 because, well, it's #7, so if a talent like Malone is there then 2,3,5 & 6 trump 7. Plus, of the players Michael mentioned, all but Malone (just by memory haven't researched it) were not drafted in round 1 and needed time to develop their skills. There's always a few guys like that, but they're the exception not the rule. I'm a Cal alum and my big conference school has 5 current big men playing in the nba (no superstars) and 2 on the way this year. They stuck around because they play at a high level every night. Thanks for coming up big in the finals Leon Powe!
I'd say 6 is the one I'd pay least attention to. Tyus Edney, Ed Obanon, Christian Laetner, and Mateen Cleaves all came up big but didn't do much in the NBA. Webber & Hakeem made some college mistakes but had nice careers. Essentially, young guys don't always know how to control the emotions, concentration, and poise. Most men need to grow up a little before they get that finisher persona.
Speaking of finishers, how could you leave Michael picked after Sam Bowie in rule 1. That's the reason the rule exists. You used a lot of real young guys in your argument, some who haven't even played in the association yet. You must be under 20 yrs old. But still a nice assessment.
2 months ago
Good article.
Although I am a fellow Warriors fan, I think that rule 7 doesn't always apply. I think that big men are a risk in general, no matter where they come from, as are "tweeners" at any position, especially for the Warriors. Equally, as a corollary to number 6, shouldn't players who excel on the small stage excel on the big stage? For example, Ben Wallace went to the Div-II Final Four while averaging a double-double, and became an All-American. However, I do know this: rule #7 for Building a Solid Franchise explicitly states: Having drafted him, do not re-sign Adonal Foyle to a six-year, $42 million contract.
In regards to #1, which I agree is always the most important consideration in drafting in any sport: If we assume that the Warriors are following this rule, what are the odds that there is a decent SF/PF in every draft who is extremely thin, but has a huge wingspan? And if this is true, by 2017, will our roster be entirely composed of these players?
Lastly, what do you think will happen if some high-major high-school prospects begin to play a year in Europe like Brandon Jennings will? For example, what if Greg Oden had torn up the Spanish League instead of playing in the National Championship game? Would he still have been consensus #1?
2 months ago
I only needed to read the first line of this article to confirm my thoughts that the Wizards did a masterful job in taking JaVale McGee at 18. I mean, Nevada's kind of a high major, right? And the WAC's pretty competitive. Plus, at 7', it would be a stretch to call McGee a "big man." So he totally doesn't fit the bill, and I can rest easy.
Patrick O'Bryant beta, here we come!
2 months ago
Excellent article! Some very great points! Keep up the great work, I'm looking forward to reading more of you!
2 months ago
This may be a controversial comment but i would only draft black players out of big name schools.
There aren't any white superstar players in the NBA. Dunleavy, Steve Blake, David lee, Mike Miller are all nice players but they aren't superstars. Can anyone name a white superstar in today's game?
There are several European players that are good like, Nowitzki, Gasol, Turkoglou, Ilgausakas, and other but I think they tend to be soft. Gasol showed he was soft in the Finals and a lot of people have questioned Dirk in the 2005 finals. He even admitted he gets nervous during pressure situations. Now I know ther are a few exceptions.
Look at today's NBA teams and who their best players are,
Hawks - Joe Johnson (arkansas)
Celtics - Ray Allen (Ucon) Pierce (Kansas)
Bulls - Gordon (Uconn) Deng (Duke)
Nuggets - Iverson (Ucon) Anthoney (Syracuse)
Pistions - Hamiltion (Ucon) Wallace ( UNC) Billups (Colorado)
Clippers - Davis (UCLA)
Miami - Wade (Marquette)
Bucks - Richard Jefferson (Arizona)
Hornets - Chris Paul (Wake Forest)
76ers - Brand (Duke) Iguodala (Arizona)
Blazers - Roy (Washington)
Kings - Artest ( St. Johns)
Spurs - Duncan (Wake Forest)
Sonics - Durant (Texas)
Raptors - Bosh (Georgia Tech)
Jazz - Williams (Illinois) Boozer (Duke)
Now I know there are exceptions, but for the most part in today's game it's black players from major colleges. There are also a lot of good high school players in the NBA like, Carter, James, McGrady, Kobe, etc but with today's rule that you have to go to college there aren't anymore high school players.
2 months ago
oops Vince Carter went to UNC, I forgot about that.
2 months ago
Michael, I'm not sure if you rushed through your homework so you could go outside to play, but your whole point is kind of weak. There aren't just sixteen teams in the NBA, and I'm pretty sure you don't need to go looking in caves to find that information. At first I thought maybe you'd just listed the playoff teams. But upon actually reading the list you just willy-nilly threw down an arbitrary list of 16 teams to make your point. Give the whole story, or else you're just highlighting what you want to see.
White, non-euro superstar: Steve Nash. Judging by the fact that you amended Vince freaking Young to your list after the fact, something tells me your criteria for superstardom are different than mine. If you're judging players by god-given athleticism, raw explosiveness and dunkiflashiness - as would be the only way Vince Young's name should appear on your list - then you'd also have to eliminate half of the guys you named. If, on the other hand, your looking at the best players, judged by MVP votes and all star bids and such, I'd say Nash is as big as they come/
Overall, I agree with your point, but does it really take a revelation to know it?
from 2 months ago
Not sure why you are talking about Vince Young. Hey Jano, this article is about baketball, not bad football players.
Like I said (TWICE) there are exceptions, steve nash is the one I also thought of but I didn't write his name down. He is the exception not the rule.
Yes I only named 16 teams so lets review the other 14 so you can better understand.
Bobcats - Do the have any good players? Okafor (Uconn) Felton (UNC) Wallace (Alabama)
Cavs - Lebron (came out of high school but with today's rule he would have to go to college and he would've went to a big D-1 school)
Dallas - Nowitzki (that's two points for you now Jano) Howard (Wake Forest)
Warriors - Monta Ellis (High school)
Rockets - McGrady (High School) Yao (china, 3 points for you)
Pacers - I guess Dunleavy is their best player (he's white, went to Duke and has underachieved until last season)
Lakers - Kobe (High School)
Memphis - they suck but Rudy Gay is their best player (Uconn)
Timberwolves - Jefferson (High School)
Nets - Right now it's Vince carter (UNC)
Knicks - They don't have any good players.
Magic - Howard (High School)
Suns - Nash and Stoudemire (High School)
Wizards - Arenas (Arizona) Jamison (UNC) Butler (Uconn)
There, feel better now. I would've thought nameing over half of the NBA teams would make the point but I guess you need to see them all.
A lot of players like Kobe, Lebron, McGrady, Jefferson, Ellis, are the best players on their teams but they came out of high school. Like i said before, with today's rule they would've had to go to college and they all would've went to big D-1 schools.
2 months ago
Im not talking neccessairly about superstars in the NBA, im talking about the best player on each team is black and went to a big name school or would've had to since you can't jump from H.S. to the NBA anymore.
write a new comment