Seven Rules for Successful NBA Drafts

7. Avoid Drafting Big Men from Unsuccessful Colleges and Conferences

As a Warriors fan, this one hits close to home. Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley) and Adonal Foyle (Colgate), anyone?

More than any other position, big-man skills need to be tested against elite competition. It is absolutely vital to see where these guys stand, because the adjustment from college to the NBA is usually hardest for a big.

The development period is often much longer, even for elite prospects. You know this rule will come into play when NBA GMs fawn over a guy because of his height, offering wisdom like “you can’t teach size.”

Very true, but if anyone could teach basketball, they would have learned by now.

The reality is, coming from an inferior league and playing against inconsistent talent hampers the development of any athlete.

And don’t forget the most important part—big men are prime candidates for college coaches looking to recruit a Final Four team. If they have one iota of talent, they’ll likely get picked up somewhere.

A legit big man is too valuable and too rare at the college level to get missed. If your guy slipped through the cracks in college—he’s probably not worth your time.

Recent Offenders: Alexis Ajinca, Mouhamed Sene

6. Players Who Wilt on the Small Stage Will Wilt on the Big Stage

This one is tough to enforce—no one wants to hold it against the guy who blew it in the most important game of his young career. But at the same time, credit is due to those players who elevate their game at the biggest moment.

If two players are relatively equal in ability and pro-projections, yet one played the role of Mr. Big Shot on his team, or had the responsibility of being the go-to option, you’ve got to go with Mr. March.

Recent Beneficiaries: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade

5. Beware of Highly-Touted Import Prospects—Especially the Big Ones

Players from abroad are getting quite a few looks from GMs nowadays, and despite the frequent misses and reaches on draft day, many prominent basketball minds are convinced that such players can accurately be forecast.

Maybe they can, but the embarrassing success rate of GMs thus far leads me to believe that they’re not learning fast enough.

Every year, an import arrives in the lottery, and every year since 2002 (when Yao was drafted), we’ve been let down. When your name gets run alongside Andrea Bargnani and Darko Millic, you’re not looking good.

Conversely, lesser-known imports seem to have a surprisingly high success rate. I don’t know why or how, maybe it’s a coincidence.

But I do know one thing—guys like Manu Ginobili and Andrei Kirilenko didn’t even get invited to the green room.

See Also: Rafael Araújo, Nikoloz Tskitishvili

4. Youth is Not a High-Priority Skill

How many times has your club passed on an upperclassman from college because, although he was better than another player, he was a year or two older?

It’s true that younger players may very well possess more potential. But in the NBA, a career could last over 10 years—especially for a lottery pick.

It's not football, and we’re not racing against a four-year window. This isn’t baseball, and we’re not looking for pitchers with fewer than 800 innings pitched. This is basketball, and these kids can play every day if they want.

Give the older kid a chance—potential might not ever turn into anything on the court. And most importantly, people develop at different rates. Just being younger doesn’t even guarantee a guy has more potential.

With a high draft pick, don’t be in a rush to take Marvin Williams over a Chris Paul. Unless the gap in potential is immense, you’ve got to take the wire-to-wire stud, even if he wasn’t born in 1990.

Why not? Marvin Williams

3. Do Not Draft Unproductive Players, Period

DeAndre Jordan is going to be so bummed to hear this.

Unless the kid is a projected top-three pick, if he has enough potential to even garner pro-interest despite being unproductive, you should be wary of the fact that he’s coming out.

Also, the college game is not as intense, bruising, or as competitive as the NBA game. Simple logic—if he’s not good at the lower level, don’t draft him over a guy who was, and then expect him to outperform said more-successful player.

When put that way, it seems kind of silly, doesn’t it?

Please see: DeAndre Jordan

2. Ability Should Trump Attitude

This one is always hotly debated, as well it should be. You will have guys who bomb out of the league due to nothing but their horrible character. This happens in any sport, and any profession.

However, when drafting a guy you expect to help improve your team, you’ve got to weigh the good against the bad. I’m not saying character issues should be ignored—guys like Chris Washburn and had clear warning flags all over their pre-draft bio.

However, when you have a truly special talent, with a manageable character flaw, you’ve got to take the chance. In the NFL, a guy like Carmelo Anthony might have fallen to the middle of Round One—just look at Randy Moss. And what if Michael Beasley fell to the Knicks?

My point is that some flaws are permissible, and should almost be expected. Not everyone can be a goody two-shoes, and even if they are, it could be a front.

Look at how much bad press Kobe Bryant got for a few years before recently reviving his image. You run the risk either way, so make sure you’re at least getting your money’s worth on the court.

Example: Michael "B-Easy" Beasley

1. Always Draft the Best Player Available, Never Draft for Team Need

By far the most important rule of NBA drafting also seems to be a barometer of NBA prospecting success. Teams who draft best player available tend to (gasp) get the best player available. Teams who draft by need frequently get busts.

Call it NBA Draft karma. But in the NBA, where prospects are getting younger (despite the one-year amateur rule) and less experienced, it is increasingly unlikely that the team “one player away” could fill that role with a single rookie.

Also, consider your options. Want to have a great player who you don’t know what to do with? Or a lesser player who fits into a role perfectly, but can’t produce at an elite level for several years anyway—by which time you’ve had ample opportunity to fill the need elsewhere, or had new needs pop up.

Adhering to this rule is the number one way to ensure your team doesn’t end up as the sad-sack franchise that passed on the likes of Melo or Wade to get Darko.

Honestly, blowing the draft is one thing. But letting that Hall of Fame prospect—who everybody knew was a Hall of Fame prospect—fall through your fingers because you wanted more depth at point guard is a very hollow, very empty feeling. It might be worse than losing the NBA Championship.