2010 Stanley Cup: Why No Team Is Worthy to Win It

The best playoffs in the world are about to begin. They are the best because, like March Madness, the unpredictable happens.

Despite this unpredictability, there are enough constants that a prognosticator who looks beyond the obvious stats and personal biases can accurately foresee the future. In my previous articles on April Fool's Day predicting who would be in and what matchups would take place, I was 16 of 16 on the teams in and had only two seeds (New Jersey and Buffalo) flip-flopped.

Some of the elements of a championship team are grit and perseverence, consistent work ethic and performance, depth (both secondary scoring and blueline), balance (offence/defence) as well as marquee players, goaltending, experience, and a relatively healthy roster. Usually, there are about four teams that stand out from the others in these traits.

Not this year. Every team is missing the following multiple elements that in a normal year would result in my prediction that each would fail:

Washington Capitals

This team has so many fans jumping on the bandwagon that the axles will break. They have no proven goalie, as neither has ever won a second-round series. Much like the team they most represented in the Olympics (Russia), their defense is worse than all but four teams, and they have no scoring depth: 42 percent of their points come from four players.

San Jose Sharks

For three seasons of the last four seasons, the Sharks have bowed to a lower-seeded team in the first or second round. They have a similar lack of scoring depth, with over 36 percent of scoring coming from three players, have been more inconsistent than ever this season (two losing streaks of five or more games).

Perhaps more troubling is that this team has overworked their goalie (71 games played plus three in the Olympics). Evgeni Nabokov will turn 35 this off-season, and his post-season performance has dropped from the regular season in each of the last three seasons when he has played an average of 70 games.

Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago is small and is getting beat up. They will be without a key element to their defence, Brian Campbell: Soupy may not have lived up to his contract, but he eats up minutes, moves the puck and quarterbacks the power play. They are also shaky in net, and have not played well since the Olympic break.

Vancouver Canucks

This team has very little post-season success, making the second round just twice since the lockout. This lack of experience deep in the playoffs will hurt, as will their inability to win on the road (second worst road point percentage in the playoffs) when they will have to play two-three rounds on the road.

They also rely too much on a few scorers, with 46.4 percent of scoring from four players. Finally, with 68 starts (plus four in the Olympics), Roberto Luongo would be the oldest player to win a Cup after starting more than 62 games in the expansion era. They are also not healthy, with three key players (Kevin Bieksa, Steve Bernier, and Mikael Samuelsson) missing time down the stretch; Willie Mitchell and Ryan Johnson are still out.

New Jersey Devils

The last goalie to win a Stanley Cup after playing more than 68 games in a season was Martin Brodeur, and he has been a workhorse again for the Devils, playing in 77 games, but he is seven years older now and played in three Olympic contests. In all three of the past seasons in which he played more than 73 regular season games, his performance has dropped off in the playoffs.

New Jersey also lacks balance, ranking only 19th in scoring. They rely heavily on the power play to get those goals, and there are fewer penalties called in the playoffs. Finally, they lack impact players on the blueline.

Buffalo Sabres

This team has only one star, Ryan Miller. Only four players even scored 50 points, and none had 70. This is why they have not been able to get past the second round of the playoffs, and that lack of experience and star power (probably no player but Miller would even start for any other division winner) will be their undoing.

Phoenix Coyotes

This team has virtually no playoff experience, no star power outside of net, and won a whopping 14 games via the shootout that will not be a post-season option. They would be the worst-ranked offence to win a Cup in decades (24th).

Detroit Red Wings

This team looks as qualified as any, but has key players aging and as a bottom-four seed in the West, would be traveling three time zones frequently in the first three rounds. This team is likely to be worn out by late rounds, and their offence is not what it used to be (14th in scoring, ninth on the power play).

They also are fielding a rookie at the single most important position in sports, and rarely do rookies excel in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The defending champs seem to have all the elements on paper, but their goaltending has been mediocre and they have been sloppy with the puck in their own end. This has led to the team having the worst defence in the tournament (20th in the league) despite a good penalty kill; with fewer penalties called in the playoffs, this means other teams' defences will improve more than Pittsburgh's.

While they are starting to get healthy, this team has been banged up and is not in sync. They have been inconsistent all season and won only five of their last ten games going in.

Los Angeles Kings

This team is far too young to expect a deep run, even though they have plenty of talent to beat anyone. They have not played well of late (four wins in their last ten), and Jonathan Quick may have run into a wall; no other goalie is reliable enough to take them deep. They have already had a successful year and probably lack the desperation to beat better, more savvy teams.

The rest of the pack

Three of the other six teams gave up more goals than they scored, just as three lost more than they won in their final ten games. The rest of the Eastern Conference would not have even made the playoffs in the West. There is a lack of balance in most of the teams, a lack of experience in almost all of them. For any of these teams to win one series would be significant, much less four.

Now obviously, someone has to win it all. But none of these teams would have stood a chance in any other Stanley Cup playoffs. Maybe they ought to make this year's Cup out of bronze instead of silver.