What Could Possibly Happen At UFC 112 (If You're Ordering It Tonight)
It's been about 11 UFC Pay-Per-Views since BJ Penn and Anderson Silva have been on the same PPV card, but the UFC has done it again. The only difference between August's UFC: Declaration and tonight's UFC: Invincible -- other than the fact that they haven't been on the same card since UFC 101 last August -- is the competition this time around. BJ Penn will be fighting a young man who hasn't gotten his props and credentials with any help from The Ultimate Fighter series, and Anderson Silva will be fighting a man who may give a passionate crowd in Abu Dhabi the fight that most fans would have loved to see just one short year ago.
In addition, impactful Wrestling combats deadly Gracie Jiu Jitsu, as the cousin of one Royce Gracie, former Pride Fighter Renzo Gracie fights the man who is still widely viewed as the UFC's all-time premier welterweight, Matt Hughes, Terry Etim takes on Rafael Dos Anjos, and Black House MMA's Mark Munoz faces the only Hawaiian to win any season of TUF, and in my opinion, a guy who should challenge for the Middleweight belt somewhere down the line, "Da Spyda" Kendall Grove.
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Throw the cliche "no chance for the challenger" comments out of the window, boys and girls. I might agree with a few of the favorites to win, but if you honestly think Edgar has no chance against Penn, or that Maia has no prayer against Silva, think again. Not to say I think it will, but I do think it can.
So with that in mind, let's look at the fights at hand:
Munoz-Grove
Both guys won their last fight. Grove trained with Team Punishment and Xtreme Couture in times past, though now he trains with BJ Penn, and Munoz trains at Black House with a real who's who of Brazilians -- the Noguieras, Anderson Silva, Junior Dos Santos, Lyoto Machida, and others. Grove has long limbs and good BJJ, while Munoz can wrestle and knock people out.
The way I look at this fight is that Grove should have as much of an advantage on the ground as Munoz, but Munoz hasn't made anyone tap, so Grove's more likely to exhibit his BJJ game than would be Munoz, the latter of whom has yet to exhibit any BJJ, and therefore may do well to keep it standing for as long as he can.
My Take: I like both guys in this fight, but a win for Munoz won't do much unless Dana White seriously implements this suggestion of which I have yet to see -- for those who have no idea what I'm talking about, post-UFC-111 comments from Jon Fitch declaring that Fitch-Koscheck wouldn't happen in the UFC Octagon, even if it means another shot at GSP, have inspired Dana White to consider putting teammates against one another. At least, that's how I perceived his words to be.
Thanks to MMA Junkie for that (http://mmajunkie.com/news/18579/ufc-president-dana-white-suggests-teammate-vs-teammate-fights-will-be-required.mma)
Anyways, I will pull for a Munoz KO or Submission-by-punches, but also I can see Grove catching Munoz on the ground and submitting him, either in round 1 or in round 2. I always have a tendency to back the wrestlers, but unless Dana is serious about requiring teammates fighting teammates, or unless Demian can catch Anderson Silva, a win for Munoz may not do much for his career, though it will be an accomplishment worth mentioning. Besides, to my knowledge, Grove and Michael Bisping are the only two veteran-level TUF Alumni who have yet to challenge a champion for a title, and Grove in a Middleweight title fight sounds pretty darn intriguing.
Etim-Dos Anjos
Terry Etim and Rafael Dos Anjos I'll say is an interesting fight, but in all truth, this may be a tough one for both guys. Etim's only had two fights in his career in which he came up short, and both of those fights went to the judges. In Dos Anjos' UFC run, three of his fights went to the judges, two of which were recent and both of which were unanimous decisions for him. What that tells me is that Dos Anjos may want to do just enough to outscore Etim, but Dos Anjos himself should be careful, because as Dos Anjos works to outpoint Etim, Etim can catch Rafael in a submission. People say the lightweight class of the UFC is a deep pool with many promising contenders, and to say either of these two guys are future contenders might be an understatement.
My Take: Terry catches Dos Anjos, I think by a Rear Naked Choke, before the end of round number three. Dos Anjos is good, he'll probably outscore Etim throughout the fight, but one wrong move will cause Dos Anjos to give up his back and spell his own doom.
The Triple Header Part I: Hugher Vs. Gracie II: Renzo's turn
Tough for me to call. Hughes' wrestling vs. a more determined version of pure Gracie Jiu Jitsu. Matt Hughes' resume speaks for itself, as does the career of Renzo Gracie, but what this boils down to is who's gonna make the first mistake. Everyone knows what happened when Royce Gracie faced Matt Hughes at UFC 60. The man (Royce) could have tapped to the kimura Hughes had on him, but he was willing to let it snap, so Hughes let it go and let the fists rain down on him.
Renzo's last fight, which was in Pride, was a fight in which his own arm did break. Thus he hasn't fought professionally in three years, but whereas I once thought Renzo was pissed at Hughes, he actually seems focused on Hughes. He feels that Hughes controlling Gracie on the top won't make a difference because Gracie won't tap. Hughes, of course views the Octagon as "his" Octagon, which is definitely a place that Renzo has yet to be.
If only one fight out of the triple-header gets FOTN honors, this could be that one.
My Take: I can't get a sure take on the Triple Header fights, because if I say Renzo has no chance in Hell, he might make Hughes tap or POSSIBLY knock out hughes, and the same goes if I thnk Hughes has no chance in hell. In my UFC Fantasy, none of the main card fights go to the judges, but in my UFC man card predictions, Hughes TKOs Gracie in Round 1. Y'all remember how Mir got caught by Shane Carwin a few weeks ago? It could be something like that... and for the record, I had Carwin winning that one, but I think I had Mir getting it in Round 2. Contrarily, Renzo might get his in Round 1.
The Triple-Header Part II: Penn Vs Edgar for the UFC Lightweight Title
Lately, I've heard claims that BJ Penn is the real P4P king of MMA, since BJ has taken on and beaten guys in the UFC at a time when the weltwerweight division was the name given to the 155-pound class. He's fought more than just Matt Hughes and GSP, he's also fought two members of the Gracie clan, Renzo and Rodrigo, plus Lyoto Machida in a fight where BJ was above the Middleweight limit at 191 and Machida weighed in at 225 lbs -- right in the Heavyweight range.
Frankie Edgar has had some pretty strong fights himself: Matt Veach, Sean Sherk, Tyson Griffin, Spencer Fisher, Jim Miller -- a clean record consisting of guys that, other than Sherk, are guys that one could argue might deserve a shot at the belt. His only loss was against Gray Maynard, and that was a decision loss. Edgar himself can outscore opponents too, but what may make him dangerous against BJ Penn is the possibility of a submission on the part of Frankie.
Yes, it's tough to get BJ on the ground unless you're "Rush" or Matt Hughes, and yes, even if you do get BJ on the ground, it's unlikely that you want him on the ground unless you're wanting to pound the daylights out of him from a compromising top position, but I can find some truth to the fact that every time you say Frankie can't do something, he finds a way to do it. If you say "Edgar can't take down Penn", the fight with Diego Sanchez proves that Frankie shouldn't, but Frankie's probably going to end up finding a way to do it anyway. If you say "he's got no chance in hell of knocking out or submitting Penn", people may cite the Joe Stevenson fight or the fight with Kenny Florian as reasons why an Edgar submission would be obsolete, and they may also cite a fight with a guy like Sean Sherk, who CAN knock people out as well as submit them, as a reason why Edgar shouldn't try to keep the fight standing, but Edgar's going to go for the submission or the knockout anyway.
Frankie Edgar is a good fighter, but he ain't a 155-pound GSP, and he ain't a lightweight Matt Hughes. I believe he can take Penn down and he can submit or knock out Penn, but I will admit that it will be tough to take Penn down or even catch Penn. Penn is pretty sick with his boxing, and his BJJ is considered to be one of, if not the best in MMA right now. There's not a whole lot that can be said about The Prodigy that hasn't been said, although I'm sure some people may be a bit surprised that Penn even fought Machida.
My Take: I said my UFC Fantasy predictions had none of the main card going to the judges, and I stick by that, but if Frankie can keep BJ on his toes for five rounds, all the while controlling him and stopping BJ from taking him down, this fight could get a decision win for Frankie, meaning that the pound for pound king of 155 gets dethroned and the question of an unstoppable BJ Penn gets an answer (pun not intended). If you ask me, though, Penn might very well end this before the championship rounds. I'm going to go with Penn by a second round Rear Naked Choke, unless Edgar can get a very close unanimous decision win -- in which I will be very, very impressed by The Answer.
The Triple Header Finale: Silva Vs. Maia for the UFC Middleweight Title
Rich Franklin. Dan Henderson. Travis Lutter. Nate Marquardt, Patrick Cote. Thales Leites. James Irvin. Forrest Griffin.
Ladies and gentlemen, I have just presented to you the victims trapped in the Spider-Web of Anderson Silva... and to think, Anderson Silva's fight with Leites was actually his worst fight.
Not that I personally blame him. Yes, he should have been more aggressive and tried to KO Leites, but if you think about it, exactly what would a BJJ ace like Leites WANT you to do?
Exactly. He wants you to come on in for a knockout so that he can catch you, take you down, and make you tap out.
Demian Maia's striking has improved since the Marquardt fight, as his last fight became the first decision win in Maia's career. What he needs to do is either catch Silva with a knockout blow or take him down and try to submit him. Silva needs to avoid the ground at all costs and try to end the fight early. No flashy dances moves in between rounds or jabs or strikes, just finish the damn fight.
My Take: Most people are expecting this to be Silva-Leites II, but I honestly am not. I'm expecting Silva to finish Demian Maia before the end of round 5 -- if this goes to a decision, I'm officially going to hope and pray that Silva moves up to Light Heavyweight permenantly and just vacates the belt. Demian is good, but Demian also needs to finish the fight early, or else he may just be another Middleweight toy for Silva to play with. It may or may not go this way, but I predict Silva by TKO before the end of Round 2.
All in all, i think this card is going to be a good card, but please, Anderson, don't do to Demian what you did with Thales, please? I really want to see you knock someone out at 185. Then again, Demian could tap Silva out -- it isn't impossible. It could happen.
That's why I watch MMA... because you never really know what's going to happen.




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