What to Expect from Mike Pelfrey

Fast forward to 2009 and the Mets are having problems behind Johan Santana as pitchers Oliver Perez and John Maine were struggling with both injuries and inconsistency. At the same time Pelfrey was putting up good numbers through May, a 4-1 record with a 3.88 ERA. Nothing spectacular, but if he could have continued that while throwing 200 innings like he did in 2008, they would have taken it.

But that’s not what happened. Instead the league adjusted to Pelfrey’s stuff and his record the rest of the way was a paltry 6-11 as his ERA ballooned to 5.53 over the final months. The biggest problem seemed to be that without a strong secondary pitch the hitters started hitting his fastball more often. The pitch that had been his bread and butter in 2008 was now very hittable.

What he’s done to prepare for this season, has been to add a splitter. How good is it? It’s hard to say, his numbers in spring training were horrible, but spring training stats don’t amount to much. What matters is how he throws that pitch and unfortunately just throwing it is not enough. He’s got to develop a strong feel for the pitch and learn to trust it. Even if he manages to develop the pitch to the point where it’s league average, if he doesn’t trust it and hitters are able to focus on the fastball when he is in trouble, he’s not going to have much luck.

The success of major league pitchers relies heavily on how much they develop and adjust to the league. This is a big season as far as that’s concerned for Mike Pelfrey. If he adapts and improves on a season where his ERA+ dropped 31 points then the Mets might have a decent no. 2 starter. However, if he fails to adapt and hitters keep sitting on that fastball, it’s going to be a long season in Flushing.

What are your thoughts on Mike Pelfrey? Is 2010 going to be the season he busts out or the season we forget him?

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