MLB Fantasy Baseball: First-Half Roundup

You think an All-Star break would keep the Roundtable down? Not at all. We put together a list of what you, as an owner, should look for in the second half of the season. We hope, at this point, you'd expect nothing less. So here's what we got. Guys who should play well, guys who drop off, and maybe some other notes to keep in mind as you get ready for the second-half push.   

• Daisuke Matsuzaka is 10-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Doesn't feel that way does it? That's probably because, even though batters are hitting just .202 against him, Matsuzaka spends the better part of his outings throwing a lot of pitches. A pitcher with these stats should have a WHIP around that of Justin Duchscherer's 1.00. Matsuzaka's sits at 1.38. Meaning he has walked a lot of batters and thrown a lot of pitches. He was just 5-6 after the break last year and had an ERA over five.
• Kevin Youkilis' average has dropped 50 points after the All-Star break in his first few full seasons. He looks good now, but seems to be unable to power through August. Be ready to sell at the first sign of a slump.
• Nick Markakis is one of the best second-half players in the game. He hits 40 points better after the break and, since 2005, has hit 17 more home runs (28 vs. 11). You can see he's already started to come on lately, hitting .417 in his last six games. Buy now if you can.
• The more I look at Rich Harden in Chicago, the more concerned I become. Harden allows a lot of flyballs when hitters make contact. In Oakland, there was an abundance of foul territory and a cavernous outfield that allowed most of those to stay in the park. Not the case in Chicago. He may record a few more wins, but I'm expecting an uptick in ERA as a result of the change, despite the weaker lineups.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a fantasy shock this season. The team has provided Ryan Doumit, Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez, and, more recently, Adam LaRoche (hitting .295 since June 1). Last year, the only reputable player on that list was Bay, with Sanchez being given some outside attention in deeper formats. This year, the only one I don't think will continue to play this well is LaRoche. I'd be happy starting any of the other guys all season.
• Another piece we continue to learn is that outside of the top five to 10 catchers, most catchers read about the same at the midway point: .250/8/40. If your catcher is worse than that, time to look to make a move. Better than that, you should be grateful. But that's about what you can get. Drafting catchers is just like drafting a tight end. The elites are worth taking early, but not getting one of those should force you to wait until the end rounds of a draft.
• Adrian Beltre is a hitter that should be much better in the second half. Beltre is sitting at .259/16/46 in a Mariners lineup that has been very touch-and-go all season. He's hitting .393 in his last seven games and has hit about 20 points better in the second half than in the first over his career. Beltre's power numbers have been very solid. RBI numbers are a function of who gets on in front of him. I don't think that post-break numbers of .285/14/45 are unrealistic though.
• Be very careful when projecting second-half numbers. Many teams have played very close to 100 games. Simply doubling current production could get you into a lot of trouble. Temper expectations accordingly.
• Who are some of the best second-half hitters? Ryan Howard, Manny Ramirez, Jack Wilson, Randy Winn, Carlos Delgado, and Rich Aurilia.
• The worst second-half hitters? Youkilis, Brian Roberts, Derek Lee, Gary Sheffield, and Brad Hawpe.

Hitters the 'Table likes in the second half that struggled in the first: Jason Varitek, Magglio Ordonez, David Ortiz, Chone Figgins, Hunter Pence, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Willingham, Mike Aviles, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano.

Hitters to Sell Now: J.D. Drew, Jason Kubel, Milton Bradley, Ryan Ludwick, Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, and Marcus Thames.

Pitchers the 'Table likes in the second half: A.J. Burnett, Scott Kazmir, Erik Bedard, Roy Oswalt, Chris Young, Fausto Carmona, Ted Lilly, Greg Smith, Josh Johnson, and Hiroki Kuroda.

Pitchers to Sell Now: Joe Saunders, Jair Jurrjens, Rich Harden, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Dave Bush, Ricky Nolasco, and Gavin Floyd.

Check out the full Roundtable blog.