UFC 112: Breakdowns and Predictions

Two World Championships will be on the line when the UFC travels to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this Saturday. The outdoor event will be held in the city of Abu Dhabi, where a couple of pound-for-pound greats will defend their crowns, and two legends will finally meet. We will also get to witness a slew of up and comers fighting for UFC relevance.

Beware of the time difference. UFC 112 will run early in America. If you order the event at the usual time, you should watch out for Internet spoilers. I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Yeahhhhh! Got in that butt!!! Hammer time!!!

Demian Maia Vs. Anderson “The Spider” Silva

Key Victories:

Maia: (Chael Sonnen, Dan Miller, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman, Nate Quarry )

Silva: (Rich Franklin, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt, Patrick Cote, Thales Leites )

Forecast:

This isn’t a bad fight by any means; however, I must admit that I was really looking forward to seeing Anderson fight Vitor Belfort. I bet the UFC wishes they would’ve kept Dan Henderson. After a dispute over the UFC reneging on a promised title shot, Hendo sought greener pastures in Strikeforce. With a replacement needed, the UFC went with the next contender available. One could call it being in the right place at the right time. In any case, We will get to see the best striker in MMA fight the best submission artist in MMA as Demian Maia takes on Anderson Silva.

Before doing a 360 degree face dive (courtesy of a Nate Marquardt cross), Demain Maia was riding a five fight win streak. Many were deeming him the guy to beat Anderson Silva. This all really shows the nature of the fight game. One loss can tarnish the excitement level leading into a fight. Can you imagine the hype of this bout had Maia never fought Nate Marquardt? With that said, Maia is a deserving contender in this bout. Marquardt is coming off a loss to Chael Sonnen, and Sonnen lost to Maia at UFC 95.

Maia is considered by many as the best submission fighter in MMA. For example, you know that random chick you hooked up with on Spring Break? You wanted to get in her guard. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time. When it’s over, you realize you’ve made the biggest mistake of your life. Now you’re paying for it with a terminal STD. Get in Maia’s guard, and you will pay for it…terminally!

Out of his 12 wins, eight have come by submission. His grappling credentials could fill a book from cover to cover. He is a second degree black belt who is currently training at Wand Fight Team. The team is led by UFC middleweight Wanderlei Silva. Maia has trained with Anderson, Lyoto Machida, and the Nogueira brothers in the past.

On many lists (mine included), Anderson Silva is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Whether he takes that honor on your list or not, we can all agree that he is and will go down as one of the greatest Mixed Martial Arts fighters of all time. Training at Black House, Silva is a black belt in BJJ, Judo, Tae Kwon Do, and most recently received his yellow rope in Capoeira. His laundry list of victories over middleweight contenders has propelled him to move up and dabble in the light-heavyweight division.

We last saw Anderson humiliating Forrest Griffin with his evasive skills. To add to the embarrassment, he ended the fight with a jab while stepping backwards. That fight was an eye-opener for all fans of MMA. Forrest Griffin is a top 10 light-heavyweight fighter and a former UFC Champion. Anderson Silva made him look like an amateur. It was as awe-inspiring as much as it was depressing. There is a clear definition of elite and whatever Anderson Silva is.

Keys to Victory:

The keys to victory in this bout couldn’t be anymore obvious. Demian Maia has to find someway to drag Anderson into a jiu jitsu match. He will need to look constantly for takedowns and opportunities to pull guard. Sounds easy enough. The one problem? Every fight starts on the feet. In MMA, Anderson Silva is easily the most dangerous striker in the world. Maia will need to use his stand up to disguise his shot attempts.

He should stay away from really deep outside shots. A telegraphed shot could mean eating a huge knee. Anderson hasn’t shown the greatest of takedown defense. If Maia is to expose this minor hole, he will need to really set up his shots. Setting up shots requires some form of striking or feinting. He needs to make Anderson believe he’s striking when he’s truly intending on changing levels and attempting a takedown.

It could prove beneficial for Maia to look for the shot early. Anderson tends to feel out his opponents for about 2-3 minutes inside the opening round. Maia can shake things up early by making this a grappling struggle. He doesn’t want Anderson getting into a groove on his feet. When Anderson goes into Michael Jackson mode, Maia should feint a punch and quickly shoot for a takedown. He shouldn't sit there and paw at the empty space where Anderson’s head once was like a game of Whack-a-Mole. You’ll leave yourself open to counters.

Anderson should obviously keep this fight standing. If the fight somehow goes to the ground, he should remain calm (like he needs me to tell him that). While his grappling isn’t Demian Maia material, he is a black belt in BJJ. He has submitted guys like Dan Henderson and Travis Lutter in the past. I’m not saying he can submit Maia. He should use his skills to create space and get the fight back on the feet.

Anderson should emphasize his sprawl more than a knee to stifle shots. While flashy, the knee is too risky. Maia could survive the knee, get the takedown, and gain a huge offensive advantage. Anderson should stay on the move often. Maia could try to close the distance and force him against the cage. As much as a cage can be used to defend takedowns, it can also be used to secure them as well.

On the feet, Maia has had issues with keeping his hands up in the past. He is still improving in that aspect of fighting. Anderson should look for holes and make him pay for every mistake.

Prediction:

While I don’t see a complete catastrophic repeat of Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites, I do sense small similarities. This isn’t the best fight stylistically. Some MMA “experts” use the term grappler interchangeably. There is something completely wrong with that sentiment. Wrestling and BJJ are not the same art. Demian Maia is world class BJJ artist; however, he isn’t a great wrestler.

Barring a miracle shot reminiscent of Charlie Conway’s in The Mighty Ducks, I don’t see Maia offering much for Anderson on the feet. We could end up seeing this great BJJ artist who can’t stand or get the fight to the ground. If Maia’s chin holds up, it will be an ugly fight.

Look for Anderson to hurt Maia midway in the first round. Maia will drop to the ground, but Anderson will refuse to follow. Shoving off takedown attempts, Anderson will completely floor Maia in the second round. The referee will finally step in to halt the action. There won’t be any “Quacking” in this bout.

Hear, Hear! Ginger!

“The Prodigy” B.J. Penn Vs. Frankie “The Answer” Edgar

Key Victories:

Penn: (Matt Hughes, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez, Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson, Takanori Gomi, Matt Serra, Jens Pulver, Caol Uno )

Edgar: (Sean Sherk, Tyson Griffin, Jim Miller, Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher, Mark Bocek )

Forecast :

UFC: Gray Maynard! What did the five fingers say to the face?

Maynard: I dunno?

UFC: Haha! Slap!!!

This epic Dave Chappelle skit describes Gray Maynard’s situation perfectly. Undefeated in his MMA career, Maynard has won seven straight in the UFC. One of those victories was over the now No. 1 contender, Frankie Edgar. While Edgar is an exciting contender, I believe Maynard was more deserving of the title shot.

Despite the awkward situation involving Gray Maynard, the UFC gives us a compelling bout as Frankie “The Answer” Edgar tries to topple the lightweight king, B.J. Penn. “The Prodigy” is a nickname that fits Penn to a tee. He achieved black belt status in BJJ with only three years of training. He was also the first non-Brazilian to win the black belt division in the World Jiu Jitsu Championships. Along with his world class grappling, B.J. adds elite boxing skills that rival the best in the sport.

Since losing to GSP, Penn has rededicated himself to his training. He is coming off a cannibalistic beat-down of Diego Sanchez at UFC 107. There is talk of B.J. moving back to welterweight should he win this fight. It would be interesting seeing him compete against guys like Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, and Thiago Alves.

Frankie Edgar would love to thwart Penn’s plans with a victory on Saturday. Edgar stormed on the scene with his upset victory over Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. After that fight, people started to take notice of the Toms River, New Jersey native. Edgar is a slick boxer with a solid wrestling game.

He is also a purple belt in BJJ. His biggest victory came with his win over Sean Sherk at UFC 98. Edgar stuffed takedowns and out-pointed Sherk to a unanimous decision victory. Kids of New Jersey! Be like Frankie! Remember, you don’t have to shoot steroids, use spray-on-tan, or fist pump to make it in life. I had to go there. That poor state has become synonymous with the Jersey Shore (MTV Show).

Keys to Victory:

It seems like Penn is presented with the same problems in every fight. His opponents come in to outwork him and get the fight to the ground. B.J. comes to work his boxing and demonstrate otherworldly takedown defense. Except for a minor hiccup or two, his strategy for this fight will remain consistent with prior ones. He needs to outbox Frankie and stuff the takedowns—now for the hiccups.

Frankie Edgar has great boxing skills. He couples those skills with a nice outside shot. B.J. needs to stay sharp. He needs to use angles to pick Edgar apart on the feet. Edgar is a small lightweight. B.J. should have a slight size advantage. When the distance closes, he should work the single collar and utilize some dirty boxing (B.J. has a nasty uppercut).

The great thing about B.J. is how he always seems to dictate the pace of a fight. The same thing applies here. Don’t get in a scrap-fest full of grappling transitions and wild haymakers. He should keep the pace steady, preserve his energy, and use his superior technical boxing to work Edgar on the feet.

“The guy who beats B.J. will be a complete fighter. He’s gonna have to do it all,” Frankie Edgar said in his pre-fight UFC interview. He’s absolutely right. I know people love using the phrases “he has a puncher’s chance” or “anyone can get caught.” Even though those things are true, do you really want your title shot to rest on a couple of clichés?

Sporting a chin of metal adamantium, B.J. Penn has never been dropped standing. If Frankie is to win this fight, he will have to implement a well-rounded strategy. He needs to be aggressive. Don’t come in with your chin extended like a Pez dispenser throwing redundant combinations (whistles, Diego Sanchez). He needs to use good boxing defense and quick combinations on the outside. When an opportunity opens, he should shoot in and attempt a takedown. Whether he gets it or not, he needs to keep doing this throughout the entire fight.

I know Diego implemented the same strategy and failed. The difference lies in Frankie’s dynamic boxing skills. He can present enough problems for B.J. on the feet to disguise his takedown attempts better. We’ll see how his chin holds up. Diego had never been hurt until he fought B.J. It’s safe to say that Frankie’s chin will get tested. His beard has held solid so far, but he has never fought an elite level boxer of B.J.’s caliber.

Prediction:

Frankie Edgar is a great fighter with a bright future ahead of him. It simply isn’t his time. B.J. is better at almost everything Frankie is good at. Even with the better wrestling game, I don’t see it working for Frankie in this bout. Next to GSP, B.J. has the best takedown defense in the sport. If Frankie is to win, he will have to edge the standup battle. I don’t see that happening at all.

Frankie will impress in this bout. He’ll give B.J. a sterner test than previous opponents, but it won’t be enough. Frankie won’t have an “Answer” for B.J. as “The Prodigy” outpoints him and takes the unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes. A true American hero. He stopped Royce Gracie. He can stop Health Care.

Matt Hughes Vs. Renzo Gracie

Key Victories:

Hughes: (Georges St. Pierre, B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, Hayato Sakurai, Frank Trigg, Royce Gracie, Matt Serra, Chris Lytle )

Gracie: (Carlos Newton, Pat Miletich )

Forecast :

In an attempt to keep “The Greatest Welterweight of All-Time” relevant, the UFC has signed Renzo Gracie to take on Matt Hughes. 5...4...3...2...1...My Hughes rant will now begin.

How is Matt Hughes the greatest welterweight of all-time? Unless we’re counting quantity over quality, I believe GSP is more deserving of that honor. I respect what Matt Hughes has done. He is an incredible fighter and a future Hall of Famer, but come on. Even non-hardcore fans can see past this pre-fight glamour.

In the past three years, Matt Hughes has only fought four times. Along with two state championships in High School, he was a two time NCAA Division I All-American Wrestler. He has competed in ADCC and amassed victories over guys like Ricardo Almeida and Jeremy Horn. Currently training at his own gym (H.I.T. Squad), Hughes remains confident in his ability to rise above and retain the welterweight title.

Renzo Gracie looks to get revenge for his cousin Royce as he steps into the UFC octagon for the first time in his MMA career. Training at Renzo Gracie Combat Team, he has a sixth degree black belt in BJJ and a black belt in Judo. Guys such as GSP, Matt Serra, and Ricardo Almeida have all studied under Renzo. He hasn’t fought in over three years. It makes you wonder how that will affect his performance. His career took a sudden halt after his DQ victory over Frank Shamrock in 2007.

Keys to Victory:

We need to see a vintage Matt Hughes performance in this fight. He has to bully Renzo to the ground and outwork him. Renzo’s striking is far from elite. Hughes should be fine wherever the fight ends up. He will have to be careful on the ground. In his seven losses, four have come by submission. Renzo will be dangerous from his back. Any mistake could lead to a Dennis Hallman-like upset.

Combinations on the feet will come in small doses from Hughes. He isn’t a technical striker. There are things he can do though. Frank Shamrock landed unchecked leg kicks at will on Renzo. Hughes could use successful kicks to set up feints when he throws punches.

Openings on the feet will be there for miles. Renzo has a tendency to do a nose dive and wing punches when the striking distance closes. Hughes could use this opportunity to set up short one-twos or clinch Renzo and proceed with a takedown.

Renzo Gracie has apparently been saying “the guard will be the key” in his fight with Matt Hughes. While true, it is not his only hope. Renzo will have a slight striking advantage in this fight. He will need to try to exploit that advantage as much as possible. He has to be careful not to leave his hips and over-commit on combinations. Keep it simple. Use small combinations and circle away. It’s easier said than done for a guy who’s made a career out of taking his opponents down.

While your strengths may become your weakness in some fights, your weakness can become your strength in others. Every fight is different. You have to find ways to adjust. If Renzo is taken down, he needs to look for submissions. He doesn’t want to stay under Hughes for too long. When submission attempts fail, he should also use the small space created to get back to his feet. This will be the key to the entire fight. Can Renzo pull off a submission or keep the fight standing?

Prediction:

Eggs. fresh Biscuits, country ham, and Renzo Gracie…mmmmm. Matt Hughes will be having his “country breakfast” served late on Saturday. Look for Hughes to get the early takedown and impose his will on Gracie. Despite taking a beating, Renzo will hang tough throughout the bout. He just won’t be able to stop the takedowns. Hughes will control top position throughout as he takes the unanimous decision.

Boy where you going!? I'm having steak tonight!

Rafael Dos Anjos Vs. Terry Etim

Key Victories:

Dos Anjos: (Rob Emerson )

Etim: (Sam Stout )

Forecast:

This should be a really fun fight. Dos Anjos is a BJJ black belt with some decent Muay Thai to round off his game. Half of his wins have come by submission. He is currently training at Evolve MMA in Brazil and Singapore. Many people remember him for nearly severing Tyson Griffin’s leg at UFC Fight Night 18 with the dangerously deep calf slicer. Griffin managed to survive and took the unanimous decision in that fight.

Terry Etim is a scrappy, exciting Muay Thai fighter. He is blue belt in BJJ. Training out of Team Kaobon and RFT, he is 5-2 in the UFC. He is currently riding a four fight win streak. The biggest victory in his career was over Sam Stout at UFC 89. He demonstrated a versatile striking game that led to him out-pointing Stout en-route to a unanimous decision victory.

Keys to Victory:

If he has any hope of winning this fight, Dos Anjos has to be successful with his takedown attempts. Etim will be too much for him on the feet. Dos Anjos should look to close the distance and shoot in deep. Terry Etim’s major weakness is his takedown defense. When fighters are able to secure a leg, they can usually drag him to the ground fairly easily. Dos Anjos has to compose himself and avoid getting sloppy. In past fights, he’s made silly mistakes that caused him to either get caught on the feet or give up great positions on the ground.

Etim provides no offense from the bottom. Dos Anjos needs to keep moving and landing short punches to keep the ref from standing the fight back up. He should also be weary of Etim’s guillotine when he shoots in for takedowns. Shannon Gugerty fell prey to it at UFC 105. Dos Anjos should choose his submission attempts wisely. Don’t get flashy. A risky attempt could cause him to lose position. Every second on the feet will give Etim more time to score points.

Terry Etim has to do everything in his ability to keep this fight standing. Despite having great Muay Thai, Etim has shown flaws in his foot movement. When pressed, he often moves straight back to counter. He needs to keep a lateral movement and strike at angles. As a defensive precaution, he should square his stance out little more. It could put him in better position to defend takedowns.

Etim should really mix things up on the feet. Try to wear Dos Anjos’s legs out with kicks. He has to be careful. A telegraphed kick could lead to a Dos Anjos takedown. He should use tight, fast combinations. Don’t get overzealous. If Dos Anjos catches him under his hips, he is most likely going for a ride.

Prediction:

Etim may show promise, but he shows no takedown defense. Dos Anjos will rack up takedowns in this bout. Etim’s lack of grappling will be his undoing. Dos Anjos will dictate the action on the ground and get the unanimous decision nod.

Dancing with the Stars: Patrick! You blew that step. We'll probably get a 23.

Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove Vs. Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz

Key Victories:

Grove: (Evan Tanner, Alan Belcher, Ed Herman )

Munoz: (Ryan Jensen )

Forecast:

“Da Spyder” and “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” will open this weekend’s festivities. Fusing your nickname with a little slang is an awesome way to get around copying someone else’s. GSP is pretty cool. I think I’m going to call myself “Da Rush.” Yeahhhhh! That even has a club sound to it. How about “Da Dentist"? Josh Neer is just “The Dentist.” I’m “Da Dentist.” Which one sounds cooler? Last but not least…Fedor. If he changed his nickname to “Da Last Emperor,” he could possibly relate to more American fans.

Jokes aside, Kendall Grove is a tough fighter. Since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter 3, he has composed a 7-3 record in the UFC. He is currently training at B.J. Penn’s MMA. A lack of consistency has plagued Grove throughout his MMA career. Out of his six losses, four have come by first round KO. In his last fight, he took a submission victory over the highly regarded wrestler, Jake Rosholt.

Fighting out of Black House, Mark Munoz is a wrestler, BJJ, and Muay Thai fighter. He wrestled at Oklahoma State University. During his time there, he captured two Big 12 titles and won a national championship at a Division I level. Since getting head kicked by Matt Hamill, Munoz has secured back to back victories.

Keys to Victory:

Being six inches taller than his opponent, Kendall Grove needs to use his height advantage. He should pick his shots from the outside. Distance will be the key. As long as he stays in good range, Grove can land successfully and sniff out all takedown attempts. When the distance closes, he should utilize the Muay Thai plum and work some of those nasty knees. If taken down, he needs to maintain an active guard.

As much as Grove needs open the distance, Munoz needs to close it. He has to find a way inside Grove’s range to work takedowns. Here’s something noteworthy…Overhands are very effective against taller fighters. History has told us that Grove doesn’t have the best of chins…(*Hint Hint*).

Munoz has watch out for Grove’s submissions. Out of 11 wins, he has taken seven by submission. Munoz will have to find a way around those long legs on the ground. He can’t afford to leave any limbs behind during attempted transitions. If he makes that mistake, Grove will be taking the limb home with him as a souvenir.

Prediction:

This is a tough fight to predict. As stated earlier, Kendall Grove is inconsistent. While inconsistencies plague Grove, Mark Munoz is still a work in progress. I could just say coin toss and end the prediction there…But what fun would that be?

Look for Grove to hurt Munoz early. Pressed against the fence, Munoz will succumb to a barrage of knees in first round.






Official Picks

Anderson Silva By Round 2 KO

B.J. Penn By Unanimous Decision

Matt Hughes By Unanimous Decision

Rafael Dos Anjos By Unanimous Decision

Kendall Grove By Round 1 TKO