LSU Football: A Realistic Preview of the Tigers' Upcoming Season

If you read my article about Alabama football and the realistic outlook for their upcoming season, then you'll know how this works.

I don't pick wins and losses based on individual games.  Instead, I group them into sets of threes.  This allows a bit of flexibility while still giving an accurate outcome.  At least I hope that's the case—we'll have to wait and see how the season plays out to know the answer to that.

First, let's look at the state of these LSU Tigers.  After a great and exciting National Championship season last year, the Tigers look a lot different for the 2008-2009 season.

Key losses include QBs Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux, RB Jacob Hester, WR Early Doucet, DBs Corey Chavous and Jonathan Zenon, LBs Ali Highsmith and Luke Sanders, Mr. All-Everything in Glenn Dorsey, and safety Craig Steltz.

Needless to say, that's quite a bit of talent out the door.

The running game shouldn't have a drop off with the trio they have, starting with Keiland Williams.  Quarterback is the big question, with three players competing for the spot who have combined to complete one pass at LSU.  One of them will need to step up and play well for LSU to have success this season.

Safety shouldn't be a huge concern, nor defensive line.  I would worry a little about linebackers if I were a LSU fan, and a lot about the corner position.

Let's move on to the schedule.

Group 1: Appalachian State, Troy, North Texas

The only game of interest is App. St., which LSU should win fairly easily.  There won't be a Michigan sighting for this season opener.  I don't really need to say anything about the other two.

After three games, 3-0 (0-0 SEC)

Group 2: @ Auburn, Mississippi State, @ Florida

This stretch will end either 2-1 or 1-2.  Playing at Auburn is never easy, but it's especially so when you have inexperienced players at key positions.  Auburn should have a strong defense like they did last year, and QB Kodi Burns should provide a spark in that spread offense.  I see Auburn winning a close one.

Mississippi State should be a win, especially since it's in Baton Rouge.

This next one was easy.  There is no way (well...maybe) that Hatch goes into the Swamp and beats reigning Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow.  On top of that, Florida's defense should be improved from last year with a year of experience under their belt.

Update: After six games, 4-2 (1-2 SEC)

Group 3: @ South Carolina, Georgia, Tulane

Coming off the UF loss, Les Miles will have his guys ready to play.  South Carolina is a nice team with a young QB, but they struggled to defend the run last year.  If that is true this year, LSU could run away with this one, since that will be their strong point.

Georgia at home should be a good one.  However, you have to give the Bulldogs the edge here.  They are considered a National Championship contender that can beat you with the run or the pass.  They have a solid defense as well.  Baton Rouge is tough, but Georgia wins this one.  The only way LSU wins is if Georgia comes in not ready to play because they are looking forward to Florida a week later.

Obviously, Tulane is a win.

Update: After nine games, 6-3 (2-3 SEC)

Group 4: Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas

This stretch will end either 3-0 or 2-1.  Most importantly, these are all SEC games.  As I said in my Bama article, I think LSU beats Bama in this one.  I can hear the boos now for Nick Saban, but he should have his team ready to play.  The last thing Les Miles wants is for the most hated guy in Louisiana to come into his house and beat him.  It should be a close game, but LSU gets the edge here.

Ole Miss at home should be a win.  At Arkansas should also be a win.  Arkansas might not even make it to bowl eligibility.

The final update after the regular season is 9-3 (5-3 SEC).  However, there is flexibility here, and 8-4 (4-4 SEC) is also possible if USC or Bama can squeak a win out.  The best case scenario for LSU, if they overachieve, is 10-2 (6-2 SEC).

That Auburn game will be huge for them—if somehow they can win there, that will really put them in a good position if they can win the rest of the games they are supposed to.  I'm sticking with the 9-3 record (5-3 SEC) though.  I think the winner of the West will end up with a 6-2 conference record.  Whether that's Auburn, Alabama, or LSU remains to be seen.

No matter who comes out of the West, I see either Georgia or Florida winning the SEC.

Of course, this is just my viewpoint.  Let me know what you think.