Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds & Pick: April 5th 2010

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Free MLB Pick: Florida Marlins +108 odds
Visit Touthouse.com for more MLB baseball picks from Matt Fargo

Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. The Mets are in an early season funk before the season even starts. The offense is in just as bad shape as it ended last season as both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are starting the season on the DL. Daniel Murphy is out as well while closer Francisco Rodriguez just returned to the team on Sunday after tending to his injured brother so he is far from there mentally. Monday’s starter Johan Santana had a rough spring and his success against the Marlins is not going to be enough to make him turn the corner right away. Despite posting a 1.29 ERA in two starts against Florida last season, the Mets lost both games. As for the Marlins, I am not sold on their offense but in this matchup it is the better unit. That offense will be behind Josh Johnson who has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. While Santana is the big name and has pitched extremely well against the Marlins, Johnson is unbeatable against the Mets. He is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts with Florida going 8-1 in those games. In games pitched in New York Johnson is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each outing. 3* Florida Marlins