UFC 112: Taking Stock of Demian Maia's Chances

This is not the first time Demian Maia has boarded a plane for the United Arab Emirates, nor is it the first time he will compete in Abu Dhabi, but Maia has never faced a challenge like this before.

The Sheikh of the UAE is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu student and fan, and established Abu Dhabi as the center of the competitive grappling world by forming the Abu Dhabi Combat Club, which hosts the two most prestigious events in submission grappling: the Submission Wrestling World Championship and the BJJ Pro Championships.

Held every two years, these two competitions represent the peak of Gi and No Gi Submission Grappling, and Demian Maia is no stranger to having his hand raised in these events. But it is not a grappling tournament that brings Maia to the Middle East this time; he has flown halfway around the globe to hunt a spider.

Anderson "The Spider" Silva is the most dominant champion in UFC history. With a sparkling 10-0 record in the UFC, the middleweight champion seems all but unbeatable. Originally set to fight Vitor Belfort, injury to the challenger threatened to push the match back but Maia was tapped as a replacement.

In stark contrast to the champion's established greatness, Maia's career legacy is anything but certain. As recently as a year ago Maia was hailed as the second coming of Royce Graice, a Brazilin Jiu Jitsu master that dominated his opponents despite a lack of striking ability.

Then came his 21-second KO loss to Nate Marquardt and now it seems many fans have forgotten the mastery of opponents Maia had shown. The loss casts a shadow over everything Maia has done since, and will certainly weigh heavy on the minds of fans and fighters alike this Saturday.

Maia's plan to defeat Silva is clear: Get a takedown, get dominate position, and submit the middleweight champion. Simple and predictable enough, but Maia is faced with a stiff task of bringing the taller, stronger, and more athletic champion to the ground.

Silva has shown an improved takedown defense since the Dan Henderson fight, stuffing the double leg shots of Thales Leites, who, at the time, was assumed to be a tune-up fight for Silva to prepare him for Maia.

If Silva is able to stop Maia's takedowns, this fight has no chance of going the full five rounds. Maia's defensive ability on the feet and Silva's mastery of Muay Thai would lead to a very convincing knockout victory for the champion.

However, it is not impossible to get the champ on the mat and Maia prefers foot sweeps and trips more akin to the takedowns used by Dan Henderson than the traditional single and double leg takedowns that Silva has become so proficient in stopping.

Once on the ground, Maia holds a distinct advantage. While Silva is an able black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Maia is simply on another level than anyone in the UFC with the possible exception of B.J. Penn. If Silva makes any sort of mistake on the ground, a submission victory for the challenger is almost as certain as a knockout victory for Silva on the feet.

It creates an interesting dynamic, one in which Maia really represents the UFC middleweight division's best chance of ever beating Anderson Silva. Other challengers for the belt have certain tools that could allow them to go deeper into a fighter with Silva, possibly survive all five rounds, but while Maia will be, in contrast, a threat of being knocked out, the level of his submission game means he could end the fight in his favor as well.

Chael Sonnen, with his wrestling, could possibly complete a half hour of controlling Silva from top position for a close decision, but his inability to pass guard and finish fights combined with his relativity weak submission defense and striking doesn't bode well for his chances.

In Nate Marquardt's last match with The Spider he was out-struck and out-grappled by the champion, and Vitor Belfort's only course of action would be to stand with Silva, which has yet to work inside the UFC.

So in an odd way, Maia, even with all his flaws, represents the best chance to beat Silva in some time. That said, Maia's chances of finishing the fight awake are not good and an outside factor basically puts Maia's chances of winning at zero.

That factor is weather. UFC 112 will be fought outdoors and the projected temperature at fight time is around 95 degrees. Within minutes of the entering the octagon, both fighters will be bathed in sweat and any grappling will become a slippery mess. In order to get a real shot at finishing a submission, Maia will need to get the fight on the ground almost instantly and that is not likely to happen.

Sadly, I can already hear the backlash that will fall down upon Maia following this match. Many will decry him as not truly being a UFC fighter and will demand his release. Others will just write him off. Maia will still be a top-five middleweight but many will not want to see him face elite middleweights.

I just find it odd that while we all hail Anderson Silva as the pound-for-pound champion, his victims are often cast aside by fans as "bums", "has beens", or "never was".