UFC 112: Predictable

UFC 112 brings plenty to the table in terms of star quality. There are very few names in the sport bigger than those of lightweight champion BJ Penn and middleweight champion Anderson Silva, both of whom will be defending their titles in Abu Dhabi this weekend.

Matt Hughes' reign as welterweight champion might be long gone but at 36, he is still relatively young in MMA terms, especially given the small but significant number of fighters who carry on competing well into their 40s. Despite losing three out of his last five fights, Hughes still remains sufficiently relevant as a fighter to be a welcome addition to any UFC card.

Unfortunately the card does not stand up to close scrutiny when it is judged according to the competitiveness of the main fights. Anderson Silva has proved time and time again that he is in a class of his own when it comes to the middleweight division, and he has beaten better opponents than Damian Maia. Maia was knocked out less than 30 seconds into his fight with Nate Marquardt last year and Silva is a far superior striker to Marquardt.

The question of just who is going to be able to beat BJ Penn in the lightweight division is being asked with increasing urgency but Frankie 'the answer' Edgar is, in fact, unlikely to provide the answer. Edgar is coming off a fight of the night submission win against Matt Veach, but he blotted his copybook with the first loss of his MMA career against Gray Maynard in 2008.

The UFC seem to have given up on the question of "who can we get to beat Silva or Penn in their weight classes?" and are instead asking, "who can we get to fight Silva or Penn in their weight classes?"

They are fast running out of credible opponents, an opinion which is clearly shared by the bookmakers. Silva and Penn are 1/10 and 1/7 to win respectively. If you wanted to bet on Edgar you would get odds of 11/2 and Maia is 9/2. The disparity in these odds is enormous and reflects the fact that bookmakers expect neither fight to be a close contest.

The Matt Hughes-Renzo Gracie fight could be more competitive but neither man's recent record is remarkable. Gracie has not fought for three years but has lost six of his last 10 fights. Seldom can a man on such a poor run of form have appeared so high up on a numbered UFC card.

The name Gracie still carries a lot of weight in the minds of MMA fans but it is evocative of a previous era and the Gracie legacy is far greater than the total sum of the current Gracie parts. Rolles Gracie was far from impressive in his recent UFC debut and Royce Gracie was comprehensively defeated by Matt Hughes in his final appearance in the UFC in 2006.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that as fighters the Gracies are relics of a bygone age, unable to compete in the modern MMA era. Renzo will be looking to salvage some family dignity after some unconvincing Octagon outings by his fellow Gracies but the bookmakers feel that Hughes, at 1/5, is the strong favourite. Odds of 10/3 on his opponent show that if Gracie does pull off the win it will be considered a major upset.

The most competitive fight which could be made out of all the six fighters headlining the main card would, for my money, be Hughes-Penn III. Penn is surely coming to the end of his lightweight career and has already proved himself capable of competing as a welterweight, he even holds a 2005 decision win over Renzo Gracie during his self imposed UFC exodus.

Penn was winning the rematch with Hughes until he sustained a serious rib injury and a third fight between the two would be an intriguing prospect, although Penn would probably be the favourite given Hughes's advancing years.

There are a number of other welterweights who Penn could test his substantial skill set against, although the two losses to St Pierre mean he would have to firmly establish himself in the division in order to justify a third shot at the Canadian. Silva, like Penn, has exhausted the available options in his division and needs to step up to light heavyweight to find competitive fights.

There are two sides to every good story and an exciting fight needs two evenly matched fighters. Unfortunately, evenly matched fights will be conspicuous by their absence at UFC 112.