The Mets can win 90 games this season.
Omar Minaya wasn't lying when he said that on a recent radio interview.
Many people would wonder how I could think that. Well, here we go.
1. Starting Pitching
For the Mets to win 90 games, Santana would have to win 16 games and the second to fifth starters would have to win 12. That equals 64 wins. With that, the bullpen would have to pull out 26 wins to finish with 90 wins.
Here is the breakdown and likelihood of this.
Santana: Recovering from offseason surgery, but should pull out another 16 wins. Likelihood: 90%
Maine: He has to play the WHOLE YEAR. If Maine could pitch the whole year, not averaging about 100 pitches through 5 1/3 innings, then he could pull out 12. Unfortunately, Maine hasn't gone past 25 games in the last two years and still has sporadic control at the best. Likelihood: 25%
Niese: Niese is a good pitcher and I think he could reach 12 wins, but we have to remember he is still a rookie in experience and has never pitched a full year in the major leagues. Likelihood: 40%
Maine: What Maine needs to reach 12 wins is to stop giving up a homerun on every pitch. In spring training he has been massacred and has shown the mental toughness of a two year old. Likelihood: 25%
Perez: ....... Likelihood: 2%
Bullpen: A decent bullpen with a top rate closer that is vastly overused because of how short the SP goes. If the bullpen can get some much needed rest, I can see the 26 wins. Likelihood: 70%
Overall Likelihood: 42%
WE HAVE TO BE HEALTHY. Likelihood: ....
C: 265 AVG 15 HR (combined). Likelihood: 70%
1B Murphy: Must hit at least .280 with 15 HR to make sure Jacobs never reaches the pate. Likelihood: 55%
2B Castillo: NEEDS to hit and field when it matters. Likelihood: 15%
SS Reyes: Must hit at least .285 and steal 60+ bases. Reyes must also give up on trying to hit for power and not be slotted at third in the order. Likelihood: 85%
3B Wright: The lack of power could be attributed to bearing the whole Mets offense last season. A renewed team could see Wright go back to a 25-25 season with 100 RBI and at most 120K. Likelihood: 90%
OF Bay: A great addition in the offseason for a HR starved Met team, he needs to add a 35 HR season with 100 RBI. Likelihood: 85%
OF Beltran: After coming back from surgery, Beltran must be able to patrol the enormous CF of Citi Field. Beltran also has to hit .285 and see 25 HR and 100 RBI. Likelihood: 70%
OF Francoeur: Another strong season with solid defense and numbers resembling .275 AVG, 20 HR, and 85 RBI. Likelihood: 80%
Overall Likelihood: 68.75%
Every team must do worse except for the Nationals, who can play exactly the same way.
37.92%...Heck, let’s say 38%!!!!
Believe people, believe! WE HAVE A 38 percent CHANCE! Sure that’s giving the Mets a little more credit than necessary, but we must stick together! Remember, there is still the chance that the Mets give Perez the steroids to make him worth his $12 million contract.
If everything can become a reality, then we have a 90 win Mets team!!!