It's another dog filled week for the Box! I gotta say, on some of your caps there Cappy, you are getting pretty close. I think you even picked the trap game (I'm thinking ARI v. CIN is the trap this week, though it MAY be NO v. HOU).
Some notes on the Box picks—where it says "x2!" after a pick, it indicates a Box suggested double down based on a low volatility game. Where it says "Bet Soon," it's indicating that the spread is currently pushable (ie, 3, 7, 10, 14...). It means any spread move is significant, since it requires an additional score or one less score to cover.
Also, I've added (just for fun) the Box's suggested over/under this week. It may not become a regular thing, but I'm adding it for kicks this week. My fun pick this week may be a single game spread/moneyline/over-under parlay. Wheeee!
Here's what the Box has to say:
|THE PICKS||Over /|
|* considers lay in pick order||Under|
|1. NO -0.01 v. HOU Away||40.0|
|2. WAS +10.5 v. DAL Away x2!||44.0|
|3. MIA +10 v. PHI Away - Bet Soon||40.0|
|4. NYJ +9.5 v. PIT @Home||41.5|
|5. CAR +9.5 v. GB Away||41.0|
|6. OAK +5.5 v. MIN Away||38.0|
|7. SF +2 v. STL @Home||33.0|
|8. SD +3 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon||43.5|
|9. CHI +5.5 v. SEA Away||40.0|
|10. DET +2.5 v. NYG @Home||41.0|
|11. BAL +2.5 v. CLE @Home||40.5|
|12. ARI +3 v. CIN Away - Bet Soon||40.5|
|13. BUF +15.5 v. NE @Home||46.5|
|14. TEN +2 v. DEN Away||41.0|
|15. KC +14 v. IND Away - Bet Soon||43.0|
|16. ATL +3 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon||41.5|
Now, the NO game is currently a pick 'em, but the Box doesn't get that, so I have to make it some number less than .5. I went with .01, since making it less than that (I tried all the way to .000001) didn't make a difference in the Box convictions.
My favorites for the Box this week are NO, NYJ, and CAR, all in the top 5. NO will be hell bent this week to punish someone for that embarrassing loss. I wouldn't be surprised if Drew comes out deep and doesn't stop. It'll be a shootout, but with a rusty Schaub, my money's on NO.
NYJ are a.) not as bad as they seem, and b.) not good at all. I think that's the perfect combo, plus an Eric Mangini who's familiar with Big Ben, for a three point loss and a beatdown of the spread. CAR is similar to me, despite the QB problems. I think if the D plays anywhere near the way they played in the 1st quarter of the IND game, it's a game that ends with a three point loss and a beatdown of this massive spread.
My least favorites: BUF, SD, BAL, and SF. Firstly, betting against NE is like mailing a check to the North Pole. Somebody's getting rich, and it ain't me. I'm glad the pick is a distant 13th. For the SD game, it's not hard to figure out how to win: stack the box, and laugh at Philip Rivers. Honestly, he's a step away from wearing a bonnet instead of a helmet.
I would have loved a JAC pick out of the Box here, but it was not to be. BAL is another one—BAL?? It may end up being a good pick if Boller gets the ball. Wait, wait...did I just say that starting Boller is a GOOD thing? Ridiculous.
I agree with you on the STL v. SF game, too—Alex Smith DOES wear a bonnet when he plays. Did you see him launch almost every ball about 5 yards above his receiver's head on Monday night? How did anyone think SF could play on Monday night? Or is that where they put the game that's over early enough to get to bed early enough for work the next day?
In other news, here are the Box's overall W/L record on the year, and over the Box's lifetime (two years). Room for improvement, but respectable (and even profitable) if I were betting every game:
|OVERALL RESULTS: 2007|
|Through Week 10|
|Overall Win %: 54.17%|
|Through Week 10|
|Overall Win %: 57.13%|
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