Looking at Fantasy Closers In 2010

Update

Jon Rauch, Minnesota Twins. With Joe Nathan out for the year, the Twins were going to go with the “Closer by committee” approach. That thought process lasted all of one week. Ron Gardenhire announced that Jon Rauch would be given first crack at the closer job in Minnesota.

Rauch closed briefly for the Washington Nationals a couple of years ago, but he should be considered as a No. 3 fantasy closer and nothing more. He might get you some saves early on, but it wouldn’t shock me if he lost his job mid-way through the season and the Twins make a trade for a more proven closer.

Jason Frasor, Toronto Blue Jays. Despite his 6.75 ERA this spring, Frasor was named Blue Jays’ closer over Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg. Frasor had a 2.50 ERA and 11 saves last year for the Blue Jays, but don’t expect anything spectacular from him in 2010.

Like Rauch, draft Frasor as a No. 3 fantasy closer in 2010.

Original Post

Here are my fantasy closer rankings for 2010.

Dennis Eckersley Division

These are your cream-of-the-crop, top closers headed into 2009. These guys are No. 1 closer material in any fantasy league.

1. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers. As long as Broxton is not facing Matt Stairs on a nightly basis, he should be the No. 1 fantasy closer in 2010. What separates Broxton is his ability to make batters miss.

Broxton led all relievers in strikeouts with 114 and his K/9 has increased three years in a row. Pencil in Broxton for 35 plus saves and 100 plus K’s.

2. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees. Someone should tell Rivera he will be 41-years-old next November. Remarkably, with just one pitch, Rivera keeps moving along.

Until Rivera’s arm falls off, I am not going to bet against him. Look for another Riveraeque season from Mariano in 2010. That means 40 plus saves, an ERA under two, and a WHIP around one.

3. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins. Nathan finished second in the major leagues in saves in 2009 with 47 (career high) and it’s quite possible Nathan could lead the majors in saves in 2010. I expect the Twins to be very good this year and Nathan should benefit from the couple of extra wins the Twins are going to get.

Nathan has been a very consistent fantasy closer over the years

Outside of Rivera, Nathan is the safest closer in the game. Nathan also had 11.3 K/9 in 2009, which was the highest of his career.

4. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox. Papelbon had an odd year in 2009. Outside of Papelbon’s BB/9 (3.0), his peripherals were right in-line with his career averages. However, it seemed like Papelbon was always nibbling on the mound and constantly had runners on base.

As long as Papelbon continues to pitch for the Red Sox, he will have plenty of opportunities to close games. Expect around 35 saves and an ERA around 2 from “Paps” in 2010.

5. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals. Soria had hurt in the middle of last season and didn’t have as many saves as we are accustomed to. The Royals’ closer did manage to net 30 saves and 11.7 K’s/9—a career high.

Barring any injury, Soria should return to the 40 save plateau in 2010.

Tom Henke Division

The next 4 are right under the great closers but will still put up solid numbers for you in 2009

6. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres. All Bell ever needed was a chance. Bell got his chance to close out games last year for the Padres and boy did he ever take advantage of his opportunity.

Bell led the National League in saves with 42 and struckout an impressive 10.7 per nine innings last season. Due to a lack of offense of the Padres will play a lot of close games in 2010, which works in Bell’s advantage. He could lead the league in saves again.

7. Francicso Rodriguez, New York Mets. After four consecutive seasons of netting 40 plus saves, Rodriguez fell a little short in 2009. That had more to do with “KRod” playing on the pathetic Mets than anything else.

While Krod will get his saves in 2010, his peripherals continue to decline, which hurts his value somewhat. His WHIP has increased four years in a row and his K’s/9 have decreased four years in a row. Not a good trend to be on.

8. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants. Wilson had a very under the radar season in 2009. Like Bell with the Padres, Wilson benefits from the Giants’ poor offense. He will have the opportunity to close plenty of games this season.

I look for Wilson to net between 35 and 40 saves with an ERA just under three.

9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds. Can you believe that Cordero is entering his 12th season in the major leagues? Doesn’t seem like he has been around that long.

Nevertheless, after having a very poor 2008, Cordero had a nice bounce-back season in 2009. Cordero saved 39 out of 43 games last year and finished second in saves to Bell. The Reds closer should have another year with 35 plus saves in 2010.

Jeff Montgomery Division

These next five guys are perfect No. 2 fantasy closers.

10. Andrew Bailey, Oakland A’s. Bailey came out of nowhere to win the American Rookie of the Year award. He compiled 26 saves and a microscopic 1.84 ERA in 83.1 innings.

With Bailey inserted as the closer from day one, look for him to top 30 saves in 2010.

11. Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers. Valverde closed in Arizona, he closed in Houston, and now he will close in Detroit. There are two concerns with Valverde.

He is going from the NL to the AL, which is never a good thing and his K/9 has decreased four years in a row. Valverde will get his saves, but I expect him to have an ERA around three-and-a-half.

12. Huston Street, Colorado Rockies. Street has had a weird odd year, even year thing going on. In odd years, he is fantastic and in even years, he has been less than stellar.

Street had 35 saves last year, which was one more than he had the two previous seasons combined. The Rockies should be good in 2010, so Street will get his saves, but I expect his ERA to rise a bit.

13. Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays. If Soriano can stay healthy in 2010, then he becomes the breakout closer in my mind in 2010. Soriano racked up 27 saves last year for the Braves and I certainly think he can improve on that with the Rays.

Playing in the AL East will hurt Soriano’s ERA a little bit, but I don’t see why Soriano can’t save 40 games for the Rays in 2010.

14. Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves. Wagner replaces the above-mentioned Soriano as the Braves’ closer. Wagner could be a No. 1 closer by the end of the year if he stays healthy, but that is a big if.

The Braves are putting a lot of faith in Wagner's two-month stretch last year with the Red Sox and New York Mets. Wagner will lose some save chances throughout the course of the year because I would imagine the Braves will be cautious with Wagner on back-to-back save nights.

The Best of the Rest

15. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs. Will get his chance to close full-time in Chicago. I still think he is more of an eighth inning setup guy.

16. Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers. The 42-year-old keeps plugging along. His 1.87 ERA last year was his lowest since 1998.

17. Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals. Franklin finished third in the NL in saves last year. Only thing holding him back from being a top-10 fantasy closer is his lack of strikeouts.

18. Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Despite leading baseball in saves last season with 48, Fuentes enters 2010 on shaky ground. He screws up early and Fernando Rodney will start getting saves in Anaheim.

Jenks has lost a lot of weight this winter

19. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox. Jenks lost 30 pounds this offseason in an effort to save his job in Chicago. Like Fuentes, if Jenks struggles early he has someone breathing down his neck. In Jenks’ case, that person is Matt Thornton.

20. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies. What a swing of seasons for Lidge. He was the best closer in the game in 2008 and the worst closer in the game in 2009. I say Lidge falls somewhere in between in 2010.

21. Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians. Wood had a much better second half than first half in 2009. Perhaps that will carry over this year. He is a prime trade candidate in July.

22. Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles. Gonzalez goes from sharing saves in Atlanta to being the main man in Baltimore. The key for Gonzalez will be health.

23. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks. Not a fan of Qualls. He is one of those “closer by default” type guys.

24. David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners. I wrote about Aardsma the other day. I say he loses his job by July.

25. Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers. Saved 25 games last season, but it always seems like he is getting hurt.

26. Matt Capps, Washington Nationals. Capps goes from closing games in Pittsburgh to closing games in Washington — That’s a lot of losing in one’s career.

27. Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates. Dotel starts the season as a closer for the first time since 2007. Consistency has always been a problem for Dotel and I don’t expect that to change in Pittsburgh.

28. Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros. This won’t end well at all.

29. Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins. Nunez did manage to close 26 games last year with the Marlins. He walks way too many guys to be a really effective closer.

30. Kevin Gregg, Toronto Blue Jays. Gregg goes into 2010 as officially the worst closer in baseball.

Waiting in the Wings

These are the guys who are slated to be eighth inning guys, but would have value if they became the closer for the respective teams.

Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox. If Jenks struggles in Chicago, Thornton and his 10.8 K’s/9 will step in.

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers. If and when Francisco gets hurt, Feliz could be the next KRod in the AL West.

Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies. Madson filled in for Lidge last year and could do so again if he struggles again.

Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays. Downs would be first in line for the Blue Jays when Gregg loses his closer’s job.

Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels signed Rodney for a reason. If Fuentes gets off to a slow start, then Rodney is in.

Next up will be the fantasy first baseman rankings.

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