Cincinnati Reds: Let's Start Believing

In the 70's, the Reds were the best in baseball; winning six division titles, four pennants, and two World Series.

In 1990 they went wire-to-wire and shocked Oakland in the World Series.

In 1999 they went 96-66, only to lose to the Mets in a wild card playoff game and miss the playoffs.

In the following offseason they brought the best player in baseball back to his hometown.  A few championships seemed a minimum for a team who had been so close the previous year.

Nearly nine years later, none of that promise has come to fruition partly because of injuries beyond the control of anyone. Also, the help promised to Griffey when he arrived never came, and he was left to blame for the team's failures.

This year, the Reds started off slowly and seemed dead in the water. They saw the ace of their staff, Aaron Harang, plummet to an unthinkable 3-11 record. They saw a big middle of the order bat, Adam Dunn, bat only .220.

They saw high-priced closer Francisco Cordero go weeks between save chances. They saw Griffey's production drop mightily from his All-Star season last year.

They saw music star/pitcher Bronson Arroyo have the worst start in 100 years (1 IP, 10 ER), and he has not lived up to his relatively large contract.

Yet as of July 12, they sit only six games out of the wild card.

This may seem like it is not a big deal, especially with four teams ahead of them and a record that is still three games under .500. But for a team that has struggled so much, to be this close is somewhat of an achievement.

If there is anything to be learned from last year, it is that no team should ever be counted out until it is impossible to come back.  The Reds have a chance to prove that point, just as the Colorado Rockies did last year.

It will still be an uphill climb, but it can be done.

The Reds have played 50 games on the road, and 45 at home.  So they will have plenty of games left at home for the rest of the season, where they have a .578 winning percentage.

Also, they play in the same division as the top two Wild Card candidates: Milwaukee and St. Louis.  The Reds will have plenty of chances to make up some ground head-to-head.

The Reds have the players to do it too. If Harang can return to his 2006-07 form and Arroyo can pitch respectably, the staff looks good as long as rookie Johnny Cueto and All-Star Edinson Volquez can keep up the unexpected production.

The bullpen has vastly improved, with Cordero earning his $46 million dollar contract and solid set-up jobs by Jared Burton, Bill Bray, and last year's closer, David Weathers.

Offensively, there have been many players who have underwhelmed Cincinnati fans this year, but they also could make a second-half upswing.

Adam Dunn should not continue to hit .220 all year, and will be able to mix in a few more base hits with his bodacious blasts.

Griffey has been inconsistent, but he could pick it up. Rookie Jay Bruce has struggled as of late, but he has shown the ability to hit Major League pitching.

In the infield, Joey Votto has made a decent case for Rookie of the Year at first base and has given fans glimpses of a promising future.

Brandon Phillips has keyed the offense and defense at second base, committing only two errors all year and doing everything offensively (power, average, and base stealing).

Shortstop has been a difficult position, with four shortstops spending time on the disabled list, but it has also showcased the abilities of both Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Jeff Keppinger.  Both of these players have performed exceptionally at the plate for most of the year.

At third is the enigma of the team, Edwin Encarnacion.  He has looked like he could be an All-Star, getting big hits and turning in Web Gems, but also like a AAA player, launching balls all over the place with his erratic arm and going through prolonged slumps at the plate.

Neither Paul Bako nor David Ross have been anything to write home about behind the plate, but have both contributed at various points in the year.

By my count, there are three starters performing below normal level based on their careers (Encarnacion, Dunn, Griffey), one who can be better (Ross), two who have played as expected (Phillips, Votto), two who have been better than expected (Hairston, Keppinger), and Bruce, who is relatively unproven, but has shown that he can be great.

Pitching-wise, Harang and Arroyo have been worse than normal, and have proven that they can pitch better than they have this year. Volquez and Cueto have been vast improvements from last year.

It seems the numbers indicate more players improving than dropping off for the rest of the year, because, as the saying goes, "you play to the numbers on the back of your baseball card."

The fact that Cincinnati is only six out despite all of the problems they have had shows me that they can improve and make a push for the post-season.

It's a long shot, but there is plenty of reason to believe they can do it.  They have an experienced manager in Dusty Baker, a General Manager who knows how to win in Walt Jocketty, players poised for second-half improvement, a schedule with more home than road dates, and a town that is thirsty for a winner after no playoff victories for either of its teams since 1995.

Watch out baseball; the Rockies of 2008 are coming, and they are the Cincinnati Reds.