2010 AL West Preview: Texas Two-Step Includes Offense, But Little Pitching

The season hasn’t started yet and the Rangers have already been rocked by disaster—revelations of manager Ron Washington’s cocaine use (on ONE occasion) have placed the organization under a level of scrutiny (and criticism) that will almost certainly have an effect on the ballclub.

Pitching has routinely been a problem in Arlington, and it will continue to be an issue for at least one more season. Last year was successful, especially by Texas standards, but the team will be hard pressed to match the achievement in 2010.

The organization did nothing during the offseason to improve its pitching staff; in fact, it took a step backwards. As in the old days, the offense will be fine, but it won’t be able to score runs at the pace the pitching surrenders them.

Key Additions: INF Khalil Greene, DH Vladimir Guerrero, SP Rich Harden, RP Darren Oliver, and RP Chris Ray.

Key Subtractions: INF Hank Blalock, OF Marlon Byrd, RP Eddie Guardado, OF Andruw Jones, SP Kevin Millwood, C Ivan Rodriguez, and SS Omar Vizquel.

Key Performer 2010: Rich Harden

Starting Rotation

The Rangers starting pitching is VERY suspect. They got a good season out of Kevin Millwood last year (13-10, 3.67), but because it was his first decent campaign since 2005, they were unable to get much in return for him in terms of trade value (injured reliever Chris Ray).

Millwood has been replaced by oft-injured fireballer Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09), who has made as many as 25 starts just three times during his seven-year career, including each of the last two seasons.

RHP Scott Feldman (17-8, 4.08) has improved each of the last three years, but his underlying metrics indicate that a repeat of his 2009 results is quite unlikely: Too many walks and a poor groundball ratio is not a strong foundation for a pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats (5.4 K/9 last season).

The third spot in the rotation belongs to converted reliever C.J. Wilson (5-6, 2.81), who was solid in the bullpen, but is an unknown quantity as a starting pitcher.  

RHP Colby Lewis, who returns to the major leagues after spending the last two years in Japan, will be the clubs fourth starter.

The final spot in the rotation will likely go to lefty Matt Harrison, who was sidelined for the majority of last season after undergoing surgery in July. While he has posted a 13-8 record over parts of two seasons, his 5.76 ERA and K/BB ratio suggest he won’t easily succeed in 2010.

Rookie phenom Neftali Feliz should get a shot at one of the spots in the rotation, but it appears the Rangers will put him in the bullpen for this year.

Bullpen

RHP Frank Francisco (2-3 3.83 ERA, 25 saves in 29 save opportunities) returns at the back end of the Rangers bullpen. While he is not one of the premier closers in the league, he is certainly serviceable. He has an excellent K-ratio, though his flyball rate (50 percent) is a cause for concern.

Feliz, a righty, will serve as Francisco’s primary setup man—both possess power arms and will have a K-ratio of greater than 1/IP.

Oliver and Ray come in from other organizations and join Darren O’Day (2-1, 1.84) and Dustin Nippert (5-3, 3.88) to add some much-needed depth for the relief corps. Oliver is back for his third stint with Texas

All in all, this has a chance to be a really good bullpen, though I expect there will be lots of movement between the rotation and ‘pen given the track record of the club's projected rotation.

Lineup

The offense is clearly the strength of the ballclub—the lineup is deep, has power and speed, and will score LOTS of runs.

They should field a productive infield.

1B Chris Davis had a fabulous debut in 2008, earning recognition as the Rangers' team rookie of the year, but he slumped badly in 2009 (.238, 21 HR, 59 RBI). Of course, that could have something to do with the fact he struck out 150 times in fewer than 400 official ABs.

2B Ian Kinsler (.253, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB) saw his batting average dip by 50 points, seemingly trading the higher average for a dozen home runs and 15 ribbies.

In spite of the furor that was created when he was forced to move from his customary shortstop position last spring, 3B Michael Young seemed revitalized offensively after moving to third base—his .322 average, 22 homers, and .374 OBP were all his best since ‘05, while his .518 slugging percentage established a new career high.

Elsewhere in the infield, SS Elvis Andrus, 20, made a smooth transition to the big league club last year—he hit .267, with 6 HR, 40 RBI, and 33 stolen bases, leading all shortstops in steals.

Questions abound in the outfield: Will CF Julio Borbon get on base often enough to enable his speed to become a consistent, game-changing factor?

Is Josh Hamilton (.268/10/54 in 336 at-bats) sufficiently healthy enough to enable his power to once again become a game-changing factor?

Ditto for OF/DH Vladimir Guerrero.

Can RF Nelson Cruz (.260/33/76) avoid the dreaded sophomore slump?

And there is the matter of who will backstop the pitching staff.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.233/9/34) has not come close to living up to the potential that made him the key to the Mark Teixeira trade a couple of years ago. Can you say b-u-s-t?

Ditto Taylor Teagarden (.217/6/24)...and the Rangers thought he was worth Clay Buchholz—straight up!

Outlook

The Rangers will score a lot of runs, but they will surrender many more.

I foresee Harden making 24 starts and the club using no fewer than eight starting pitchers throughout the season. The bullpen will start strong, but will suffer as starters shuttle into and out of the rotation and bullpen—and then relievers break down due to over-use and over-exposure.

SOX1Forecast: 75-87, third place.

Texas Rangers — Top Five Prospects

1. P Neftali Feliz
2. 1B Justin Smoak
3. P Tanner Scheppers
4. P Martin Perez
5. P Danny Gutierrez