Stanley Cup Predictions Are for April Fools, Volume I

Only a fool tries to predict the historically anything-can-and-will-happen NHL playoffs before the season is even over.

Have you ever met me? There is nothing I do not foolishly believe I can analyze!

And to some extent, I can back it up: I have not wavered from the 16 teams I predicted making the playoffs, only in the order they will be seeded.

To keep this from being too long an article, Volume I will start with the playoff picks for the Eastern Conference:

Washington Capitals over Montreal Canadiens in five games. The Caps have unprecedented scoring in the post-lockout era, and are not significantly worse in the defensive end than Les Habitants. This is really no contest.

Buffalo Sabres over Philadelphia Flyers in seven games. The Sabres will rely on one of the best coaches and goalies in the world to compensate for their lack of star talent. But do not count out the Flyers, who have shown playoff mettle and have one of the deepest group of skaters in the league—both forwards and defence. This spells seven games, and Game Seven is tough to win on the road (last year's Penguins, with two such road wins, notwithstanding).

New Jersey Devils over Boston Bruins in six games. The Devils have more depth than they have had in recent years, but their success is still predicated on arguably the greatest goalie ever. However, Boston has a better defence, and defence wins in the playoffs, right?

Wrong. Post-lockout, a higher percentage of top-scoring teams made it through to the conference semi-finals than teams that had the best defences. Worse for Boston, New Jersey has balance, and that is the best position to be in to keep playing into May. The Bruins are a gritty team and will find a way to win a game or two, but this is a mismatch.

Pittsburgh Penguins over Ottawa Senators in five games. Not to discredit what Ottawa has done this season, but they are not for real: They would not even make the playoffs in the West, will be fielding an inexperienced goalie (as much as I love former Wisconsin Badgers NCAA champion Brian Elliot), and relying on guys that have generally underperformed in postseasons past, like Milan Michalek and Daniel Alfredsson.

In this scenario, Pittsburgh loses out to New Jersey for the division title, but it will be close, and may even come down to the head-to-head. They are still defending champions, should be healthy by the playoffs, and have better forwards, defencemen, and goaltending than their foes, making their advance the safest bet in the playoffs.

Thus, no favourites lose in the first round in the East.

Pittsburgh Penguins over Washington Capitals in six games. The Capitals are not strong enough in their end (the worst defence in the playoffs) to win the kind of tight games that are played in May. They look much like the team key personnel played on in the Olympics: great top-line scoring but lacking depth, defence, and (as it turned out in the Olympics) goaltending.

True, the Penguins have given up the same number of goals in just one more game, but Pittsburgh has proven they can adjust their game on this stage. They not only have the championship pedigree, but the key injuries they have dealt with will help their perseverance and make them better in the playoffs than the regular season when their roster is again full.

To top it off, Pittsburgh added a puck-moving defenceman—so valuable in the playoffs—at the trade deadline. They have everything it takes.

New Jersey Devils over Buffalo Sabres in six games. The Devils have the advantage through 18 players, and considering how minimal Buffalo's edge in net is, this would be an easy enough pick to make if other factors did not point in New Jersey's direction. But the Devils' superior playoff experience more than out-weighs the edge Buffalo gets through home ice advantage, making this an easy call.

Pittsburgh Penguins over New Jersey Devils in six games. I know, I know: New Jersey dominated in sweeping the season series and has home ice. But Martin Brodeur will be 38 years old and have played over 90 games since the autumnal equinox (preseason, regular season, Olympics, and playoffs) by the time this series started.

Marc-Andre Fleury will have played in at least ten percent fewer games at two-thirds the age. Given that there will not be an issue with the Pens lacking confidence as two-time defending Eastern Conference champions and that they have slightly better skaters as a whole, this series is going their way.