Is Cincinnati Reds Rookie Mike Leake a Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Pick?

Eric StashinApr 1, 2010

The Cincinnati Reds have about as much rotation depth as anyone.

You have the veterans in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. You have the youngsters with experience looking to take the next step in Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. You have Edinson Volquez working his way back from injury. You have the hotshot import in Aroldis Chapman, who is garnering a ton of attention.

Yet there’s another prospect who has been lighting things up this spring and appears to be on the verge of making an impact in Cincinnati.

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When camp opened, no one actually considered Mike Leake, the Reds' 2009 first-round pick (eighth overall), a realistic option to break camp with team. Now, less then a week away from the start of the season, Leake is still in camp battling for the fifth spot in the rotation.

What You Need To Know:

He has yet to throw a regular season pitch as a pro. Drafted out of Arizona State, Leake did get a taste of professional ball in the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he posted a 1.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 19 innings. This spring he’s continued to pitch well, with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 18.0 innings.

He was a two-time Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year and the 2009 National Player of the Year by the American Baseball Coaches Association. During his junior year (2009) he had a stretch of 26 scoreless innings and seven complete games.

MLB.com’s description of Leake after being drafted was, “As a six-foot righty, people may want to overlook Leake as a big-time pitching prospect, but they might be missing the boat. He can throw four pitches for strikes and his poise is off the charts. He may not be that big, but he’s athletic, strong and durable with an extremely efficient delivery. He’s done nothing but perform with the Sun Devils and whoever looks past his size could have themselves a steal.”

Apparently he may have developed a fifth pitch. In an article on the Reds' Web site they say he has five pitches “including a lively fastball and deceptive changeup to go with curve, cutter and slider.”

Baseball America ranked him as the Reds’ third best prospect, behind Todd Frazier and Yonder Alonso. Regarding his repertoire of pitches, they said that “Few pitchers can master a five-pitch arsenal, so it’s possible he’ll have to drop an offering or two as he moves through the minors. For now, Cincinnati will let him use his full repertoire.” He does not have an overpowering fastball (sitting in the 88-to-94 range) and shouldn’t be considered an elite strikeout option, despite what he showed at ASU (he hasn’t shown it yet).

Despite his “polish” as a young pitcher, the truth of the matter is, even with the successful showing in the AFL and this spring, Leake’s probably better off getting a taste of the minor leagues. He hasn’t really experienced taking the ball every fifth day, something that he needs to adapt to.

He needs to learn and mature and master his pitches before getting thrown to the wolves. The Nationals are doing the smart thing, starting Stephen Strasburg in the minor leagues, and the Reds should follow suit.

However, once he gets the opportunity, Leake could prove valuable. If you are in a long-term keeper league or deep NL-only league, he’s likely worth stashing now. Otherwise, bide your time and see how things develop.

What are your thoughts on Leake? Is he a pitcher on your radar? How do you think the Reds should handle him?

If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .

For more looks at prospects, you can check out the following articles: