Ever since Bill James became a household name (okay, maybe not quite a household name), baseball fans have been bombarded with fantasy baseball projection systems. Some of them are accurate (PECOTA), and some aren’t that spectacular (Marcel).
All of them, however, have good intent and essentially the same skeletal structure. These projections put a player’s past performance, recent trends, and age into a formula that adjusts for luck and spits out expected performance values. So, how can we use them to help us with our fantasy teams?
One of the most common mistakes made during fantasy drafts is picking a player who is coming off of a career year. Most people only look at last year’s stats while choosing players.
That strategy certainly isn’t foolproof. Since these projections adjust for luck, using them can help you avoid players who just got lucky last year, while helping you pick the sleepers that are coming off of a down year.
So what I’ve done is take the most accurate projections available, CHONE, and converted them to ESPN’s standard fantasy scoring system. I have ranked the fantasy players by position, and will be unveiling a new group with each article.