With No Tiger in The Hunt, Who Will Take Home The Claret Jug?

I was going to start this article by saying that predicting the winners of golf tournaments is something of a fool’s game, but then I realised that it really isn’t. More often than not, if you plump for Tiger Woods you don’t go far wrong. But with the most famous left knee in sport keeping the great one out of this week’s Open Championship, the race for the Claret Jug has been blown wide open – predicting a winner truly is a fool’s game. Ploughing on regardless, here are a few of my main contenders.

Or rather, a few of the bookies main contenders. Ladbrokes, along with many others, have Sergio Garcia as their 10/1 favourite to finally claim the title he so narrowly missed out on last year. This is not unreasonable – the other ‘El Nino’ (and surely he was ‘The Kid’ long before Fernando Torres?) is blessed with the sort of creative iron play that sets him apart from his peers and it is this, along with a long and accurate driving game, that means he thrives on the links. His form is good as well – he finished a comfortable second in the European Open at the London Club last week. The only weakness is his putting – he seems to lack any confidence in this part of his game, while exuding it in all others. If Sergio gets ahead early, you feel he could go on for a crushing victory reminiscent of Tiger himself. But if he gets drawn into a scrap, it could well be the flat stick that lets him down.

With Mr Woods out, the American challenge looks to be very weak, but there are still a few familiar names to look out for. Phil Mickelson will undoubtedly like to add the Claret Jug to his collection, and Stewart Cink will be keen to add a major to his impressive CV. Both men will hope to make the cut at a minimum. But surely it is another old stalwart, Jim Furyk, who will provide the greatest American challenge. Not in the greatest form this season, the 2003 US Open champion has history at Birkdale, having finished T4^th  in 1998. With 5 career top 5 finishes at the event, it should not surprise anyone if Furyk has a strong tournament. For a longer shot though, how about Hunter Mahan? The American is a great ball-striker (a quality at a premium in any Open) and had a great finish in his first Open at Carnoustie last year. With huge Ryder Cup points on the line, expect him to give a good account of himself. Anthony Kim, a double winner on the PGA tour this year, is another who falls into this category.

But ever since Padraig Harrington wrestled the Claret Jug into Irish hands last year, the big question is whether we will have another European winner this time out. Garcia is obviously a likely challenger, and Harrington himself is just 16/1 to repeat his triumph. Stranger things have happened, but surely the luck of the Irish won’t stretch that far for the likeable man from Dublin. Robert Karlsson, the big Swede, is fancied by many – but while he is undoubtedly a great player he seems to be something of a ‘nearly man’. Expect him to be solid, but unspectacular. A top 20 finish, bolstered by a great final round, is a probably the likely result for another player looking for Ryder Cup points. Perhaps a less heralded player who could cause a stir is Martin Kaymer. The German, who stormed the Challenge Tour last season, looks to have the game to get to the very top and has made a solid start to his first season on the European Tour. If the wind does not get up too much he could be one to watch – and for many years to come.  

Rather excitingly for us English chaps, there are a fair few homegrown contenders that look to have a realistic chance of putting themselves atop the leaderboard. Justin Rose, who shot to prominence with that unforgettable pitch-in to finish T4^th last time at Birkdale, will certainly be hoping that the good memories aid his challenge. A bona-fide major contender in recent times, he will certainly be one to look out for. Likewise, compatriot Lee Westwood should expect a good tournament. Westwood’s game is much like Garcia’s – strong off the tee and a great ball striker - he also has good experience of links courses. Hopefully, what the Worksop man learnt in his near miss at the US Open will serve him well – his would be a worthy and popular name on the Claret Jug. Of the two, you fancy that Westwood just about has the edge – mentally he looks ready to become a major winner whereas Rose is still to step up to the plate on the Sunday of a major.

From that list then, whom do I fancy to win? Well, in this fool’s game, it would surely be foolish to go against the bookies – as everyone knows they are hardly ever wrong. Sergio Garcia has the game, the form and the burning desire to win, but he also seems to have the omens on his side. Spain is having an annus mirabilis – with Rafa Nadal taking Wimbledon and Iker Casillas lifting the Henri Delaunay trophy, would you bet against Sergio making it a treble success on the Iberian Peninsula?