Triplets vs. Stud RB Theory

There was a time when the accepted approach to a fantasy football draft was to draft running backs in the first two, sometimes the first three rounds, regardless of draft position.  Drafting two RB’s these days in the first two rounds just might make you an “also ran” before the draft is even over.  Certainly if you go three.  An opposing theory, Triplets,  would have owners taking a RB, QB, or WR in the first three rounds.  The order would be determined by best available at those positions, but RB would be the logical starting point.  This could also have you skipping over a RB that could outscore the QB or WR taken because you stick to the rule.  In these days of RBBC, stud QB’s, and the emergence of points per reception and the fantasy WR, old school draft strategies just may not hold up.  The importance of preparing for your draft position should determine your theory.

Recently I was testing the Two RB theory during a Mock Draft at Fantasy Football Calculator.  I had the #1 pick so LT was mine.  Sticking to the theory of taking the best RB available at the end of round two, Reggie Bush became my second back.  This would not have happened if I was drafting for a league.  Sure, I get another pick right after that, but what if I had been in a different draft position?  This theory could have had me passing on a player that would severely outscore my 2nd draft pick.  With this in mind I decided to spend a day at work conducting Mock Drafts with Football Guys Draft Dominator software (Don’t tell my boss).

There were 24 Mock Drafts performed on that day.  One for each draft position using the two RB theory and one for each draft position using the Triplets theory.  The goal was to see which theory applied best to each draft position.  Here are the settings that were used…

Starters:
1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 DT

Scoring:
Passing: 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 20 yards, -2 per INT
Rushing/Receiving: 6 pts per TD, 1 point per 10 yards, -2 per fumble

The computer teams used varying ADP rankings from five different sources to ensure they were not going by the same list, you know, more like a real draft.

The value at each position is ranked by the projected points over the course of the season.  There is full roster, starters, and the starting RB’s in the resulting draft.  In parenthesis after the players is the Average Draft Position at Fantasy Football Calculator.

DISCLAIMER: This is by no means a science.  Yes, there are holes all over it, but numbers are fun!  The projected points are taken from the draft software.  Players picked were taken according to best available for the theory according to the projected points.

So let’s get on with a breakdown by draft position.

PICK #1

2RB Theory:  With the first pick I went with LT (ADP-1.01).  In the second round the rest of the teams will determine what RB I have left and Jamal Lewis(ADP-3.01) is the go to guy.  That is quiet a reach to stick to the plan.  In the swing I go with Chad Johnson at 3.01.

Triplets: LT (ADP-1.01) is again the first pick here in this spot.  In the second round the best WR/QB available is Larry Fitzgerald (ADP-2.08).  The swing to round three rounds out the triplets with Drew Brees (ADP-3.09) at QB.  For the record here, waiting on RB makes LenDale White the #2 back.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2347
Trip Overall: 2316

2RB Starters:1802
Trip Starters: 1727

2RB starting RB’s:494
Trip Starting RB’s: 471

Summary: Taking LT gives you the flexibility to go in different directions as he often scores as much as two guys.   Sticking to the triplet plan causes me to lose some points here in each area as I have to reach for some guys.  Having LT still makes up for that.  Two RB appears to be the way to go here.

PICK #2

2 RB Theory: In the #2 spot we go with Adrian Peterson (ADP-1.03) here.  Round two and three are the same here as I again have to reach for Jamal Lewis (ADP-3.01) as the best available back and Chad Johnson as the best left on the board in round 3.

Triplets: The first three fall the same in the second pick spot here as they did in the first round.  LT (ADP 1.01), Fitz (2.08) and Drew Brees (ADP-3.09).  LenDale becomes back #2 again as well.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall: 2267
Trip Overall:2289

2RB Starters:1689
Trip Starters:1703

2RB starting RB’s: 443
Trip Starting RB’s:471

Summary: If team #1 had taken LT this would be drastically different results I believe for the Trips.  But they didn’t and we can’t control who the other team takes.  Advantage-Trips.

PICK #3

2 RB Theory: We are now out of the LT/AP field.  With the #3 pick I go with Steven Jackson (ADP-1.04) and again reach for Jamal Lewis (ADP-3.01) as the best back available in round two.

Triplets: This time around the triplets are Brian Westbrook (ADP-1.04), Larry Fitzgerald (ADP-2.08), and Drew Brees (ADP-3.09).

Projected Points:

2RB Overall: 2253
Trip Overall:2267

2RB Starters: 1687
Trip Starters:1725

2RB starting RB’s: 441
Trip Starting RB’s:444

Summary: The big difference here falls in the difference of the starters.  Having to wait on the second RB, this time Edge James (ADP-5.05) fell to us. Advantage-Trips

PICK #4

2 RB Theory: Steven Jackson (ADP-1.04) is the first pick for this position and coming around in the second round we have Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP-2.10).  On a side note, Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are the QB/WR.

Triplets:  Triplets in the 4th position are Steven Jackson (ADP-1.04), Tony Romo (ADP-2.10), and Chad Johnson (ADP-3.05)  Waiting on a 2nd RB is again Edge James (ADP-5.05)

Projected Points:

2RB Overall: 2288
Trip Overall:2300

2RB Starters: 1751
Trip Starters:1765

2RB starting RB’s: 461
Trip Starting RB’s:427

Summary: Although there is quite an advantage at the RB position here for the 2 RB theory, the points are in favor for the Trips in overall roster and starting lineups.

PICK #5

2 RB Theory: Pick #5 we land Joseph Addai (ADP-1.05).  I’m feeling pretty good with him at this spot.  The second round brings us Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP-2.10) again.  Side note, Donovan McNabb and TJ Housh are the QB/WR.

Triplets: The Trips land like this… Joseph Addai (ADP-1.05), Tony Romo (ADP-2.10), and Chad Johnson (ADP-3.05).  Second back ends up being Edge James (ADP-5.05) again

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2225
Trip Overall:2273

2RB Starters:1690
Trip Starters:1686

2RB starting RB’s: 445
Trip Starting RB’s:411

Summary: Although the overall roster is in favor of the Trips, we are starting to see a shift in the players your actually starting.  Advantage- 2 RB

PICK #6

2 RB Theory: Again we land Joseph Addai (ADP-1.05).  The second round brings us Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP-2.10).  Side note, Donovan McNabb and Chad Johnson are the QB/WR.

Triplets: This is where things really begin to be shaken up.  Not being concerned with taking a RB here we can go with the best available of the QB/RB/WR.  Tom Brady (ADP-1.07) is the pick here considering the projected points.  That will give us a drop at RB, but like with LT in the first round, Brady’s points give you some flexibility.  Rounding it out are Maurice Jones Drew (ADP-2.10) and Chad Johnson (ADP-3.05).

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2241
Trip Overall:2350

2RB Starters: 1641
Trip Starters:1758

2RB starting RB’s:445
Trip Starting RB’s:381

Summary:This is by far the biggest difference.  It is also a good example of why we are doing this in the first place.  By not being forced to stick with RB in the first round, the Trips team adds some major points to their starters.  Who cares if your RB’s don’t score as much if the rest of your team is?  Advantage- Trips.

PICK #7

2 RB Theory: The first round takes us to the West Coast for Frank Gore (ADP-1.09).  Round two we are still going Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP-2.10).  Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson are the QB/WR found later.  We are being forced to reach on MJD, and not liking it, watching some higher talent go off the board after our pick.

Triplets: Here we get to see a couple different names.  Randy Moss(ADP-1.08) goes in the first round followed by Tony Romo (ADP-2.10) and Ronnie Brown (ADP-3.06).  Sticking to the plan of the best available QB/RB in round two makes us reach a little for Romo.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2262
Trip Overall: 2254

2RB Starters:1655
Trip Starters:1644

2RB starting RB’s:443
Trip Starting RB’s:355

Summary:It appears going WR in round one hurts the rest of the roster.  Randy Moss was the one to go with though sticking to the plan for the Trips.  Advantage- 2RB’s in all areas.

PICK #8

2 RB Theory: Clinton Portis (ADP-1.09) and Ryan Grant(ADP-2.06) are the two runners picked up.  Side note, Carson Palmer and Torry Holt are added later at QB/WR.

Triplets:  The best on the board at QB/RB/WR is Peyton Manning (ADP-2.03), which is a reach already.  Willie Parker (ADP-3.10) is the RB and our featured WR is Kevin Curtis (ADP-7.11).  Having to go WR in round three makes this position a mess.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall: 2231
Trip Overall:2240

2RB Starters:1633
Trip Starters:1643

2RB starting RB’s: 415
Trip Starting RB’s:351

Summary: Despite the mess that was taking Kevin Curtis in the third round, the Trips hold a slight advantage in starters.  There is a significant difference in the RB value, in favor of 2 RB’s. Advantage-Trips, barely.

PICK #9

2 RB Theory: Clinton Portis (ADP-1.09) and Ryan Grant(ADP-2.06) are again the go to guys.  Added later at QB/WR are Drew Brees and Anquan Bolden.

Triplets: Here we again find that Randy Moss(ADP-1.08) is the best QB/RB/WR left on the board.  Tony Romo(ADP-2.10) and Willie Parker (ADP-3.10) round out the Triplets.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall: 2244
Trip Overall:2220

2RB Starters:1652
Trip Starters:1662

2RB starting RB’s:415
Trip Starting RB’s:351

Summary: This one is kind of a toss up.  2RB’s rule the overall and starting RB’s where the starters go to the Trips.  Advantage-Trips for starters.

PICK #10

2 RB Theory: New names, Yeah!  Larry Johnson (ADP-2.02) becomes the first pick.  Ryan Grant (ADP-2.06) is the second back.  Matt Hasselbeck and Torry Holt added later.

Triplets: Randy Moss (ADP-1.08) is available again.  Tony Romo (ADP-2.10) and Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP-2.10) round it out.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2229
Trip Overall:2253

2RB Starters:1649
Trip Starters:1669

2RB starting RB’s:422
Trip Starting RB’s:381

Summary: Big difference here between the starting RB’s.  That’s to be expected since the Trips are never going to draft a 2nd back before the 4th round.  Regardless, advantage goes to the Trips.

PICK #11

2 RB Theory: Larry Johnson (ADP-2.02) is the best reach here with Maurice Jones-Drew (2.10) the reach in the second round.

Triplets: Peyton Manning (ADP-2.03) falls to the 12th pick in this draft.  Reggie Wayne (ADP-2.01) and Edge James (ADP-5.05).

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2221
Trip Overall:2239

2RB Starters:1632
Trip Starters:1656

2RB starting RB’s:423
Trip Starting RB’s:338

Summary: Going with 2RB’s later in the round here we are being forced to reach a little bit on both of our first round picks.  The flexibility of the Trips gives them the advantage.

PICK #12

2 RB Theory: Again Larry Johnson (ADP-2.02) is the best reach here with Maurice Jones-Drew (2.10) the reach in the second round.

Triplets:  Again, Peyton Manning (ADP-2.03) falls to the 12th pick in this draft.  Reggie Wayne (ADP-2.01) and Edge James (ADP-5.05).  I know, the 1st rounder has a lower ADP than the 2nd…it’s the swing and I went by the list I had been using all along.

Projected Points:

2RB Overall:2231
Trip Overall:2228

2RB Starters:1647
Trip Starters:1638

2RB starting RB’s:427
Trip Starting RB’s:338

Summary: Waiting until the 3rd round (reaching on an Edge) for a RB appears to hurt the Trips.  Advantage-2RB.

The point in Fantasy Football is putting up more points than your opponent on a weekly basis.  Let’s have a look at where draft positions fall with putting out the best starting lineup (bye weeks not considered).  The higher projected points for each draft position were used.

Draft Position	Starter Points	Strategy
#1	1802	2RB
#4	1765	Triplets
#6	1758	Triplets
#3	1725	Triplets
#2	1703	Triplets
#5	1690	2RB
#10	1669	Triplets
#9	1662	Triplets
#11	1656	Triplets
#7	1655	2RB
#12	1647	2RB
#8	1643	Triplets

Conclusion: While conducting these drafts there was a similar fault that jumped out at me for both strategies.  This would be reaching for players to satisfy what the strategy called for at a draft position.  It’s clear that a better team could have been put together in some cases if I was able to draft by the best value at that time.

Triplets offered more flexibility but called for a second RB to be taken, at the earliest, in the 4th round.  With the RB theory I would have been forced to pass on a Tom Brady, Randy Moss, or Peyton Manning even if they fell to me in the second round.

Your RB’s will almost always be stronger taking the 2RB theory.  Of course, this can also hurt the rest of your team.

LT and Tom Brady appear to be the serious difference makers, like we didn’t know.

The moral of the story? In the days of RBBC, PPR, and teams throwing the ball all over the field, these old school draft strategies may just be out of date.  It is apparent that there needs to be a follow-up done taking Best Available into consideration…Coming soon!

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