What Would Wall Street Do: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

Matt MoscardiAnalyst INovember 13, 2007

IconFirst things first: ALL HAIL THE BOX.

SD won't cover say you? Boxy says otherwise. CLE can't cover? Nay, jerk! Box says and CLE does! All that work to make financials a part of the betting seems not worth it. Or was it?

On the advice of Capper, I altered the stats on which the financials are based, and now the results make a lot more sense. Now, the financials are figured as follows:

The beta is now figured using a ratio of points scored to statistical score—a scaled and redesigned version of DVOA from the geniuses at Football Outsiders.

Basically, it's a ratio of points to team value over average. As an example, if NE is 40% above the average team (which scales to a score of 140), and they score 37 points, the ratio is 37/140 = 0.22. The baseline score is a score of 20 (the historical average) divided by 100 (the most average team possible), or 0.20. What that means is that if NE scored the exact amount of points it "should" score, it would score 28 points. Because they scored 37, they has a higher point to score ratio.

This is a very effective way of describing whether or not a team is performing as expected or not. So when I figure the all the financials using these ratios, the rankings now look like this:

  Sharpe Alpha Beta
Team Rank Rank Rank
ARI 18 22 24
ATL 30 28 27
BAL 26 29 21
BUF 27 25 17
CAR 24 26 16
CHI 23 17 23
CIN 9 10 8
CLE 4 2 30
DAL 2 3 3
DEN 29 30 4
DET 7 6 18
GB 8 13 20
HOU 11 7 5
IND 3 4 9
JAC 19 23 2
KC 28 27 19
MIA 15 14 28
MIN 14 21 29
NE 1 1 14
NO 12 9 25
NYG 6 5 12
NYJ 25 8 32
OAK 20 15 26
PHI 17 20 31
PIT 5 12 11
SD 10 11 6
SEA 13 16 13
SF 31 31 1
STL 32 32 10
TB 22 19 22
TEN 16 18 15
WAS 21 24 7

Almost the same as before, really. But now, I've figured out HOW to use these scores. Or, more accurately, my lovely wife gave me the idea.

She suggested, "Why do you have to tell the Box how many games you want to pick? Shouldn't the Box tell you? Shouldn't there be a threshold?" I don't know why I hadn't thought of it, but it was genius.

But rather than letting the Box tell me what games to bet, (since that means there would be weeks I only bet one game, sometimes zero, and that's no fun) I'm having the Box now tell me what games to DOUBLE the bet. The beta does an AMAZING job of gauging volatility for spread bets, and a Sharpe/Alpha average picks moneyline winners like I pick my nose.

I'll get more into this during the week, but for now, let's just say I would have made FIFTEEN TIMES MORE on my bets if I'd been doing it all along. Pure semi-genius.

Check back for results later today or tomorrow—it was another winning week! A little ugly, but still a winner!