Chaser Or Racer: NASCAR's Race To The Chase (Chicagoland)

            Daytona has always been one of the wildcards in the stretch run to The Chase. Typically, this race is more about surviving unscathed and missing the inevitable big wreck that always hits a restrictor plate race. To come out of this race, especially if you’re a bubble driver/team, with a solid top ten finish would be a strong showing. It may not be the most indicative regarding driver and team performance, but getting through the race without getting into trouble could be very valuable in the long run. Don’t be surprised if those who made and missed The Chase will look back on this race as one that helped or hurt them, depending on who you are.

10th place Clint Bowyer: While having a predominantly quiet race, Bowyer avoided all of the late race havoc to finish a more than respectable ninth, moving him up one spot in the standings to tenth. He’s been hot and cold this year, either running toward the front or struggling in the back (remember his string of finishes of 25th or worse in four straight races after his Richmond win). For sure, Daytona could be a big benefit for him and his team, but they’ll need to find consistency in order to feel remotely safe regarding The Chase. If they continue their hot and cold streak, it will be nip and tuck for them come Richmond in September.

11th place Greg Biffle: He and the number 16 team looked to be hitting their stride after Dover. They had come third that day, ran second the week before at Charlotte, and were in contention to win a couple weeks prior at Darlington until they had mechanical gremlins. However, since Dover, they’ve run into trouble, not scoring a top ten in the five proceeding races. Now, they find themselves in hot water again. Clearly, when this team is on, they’re one of the best out there. But, when they’re off, they look completely lost and can’t recover. They may have the resources to help them, but I can’t see this team or driver in this year’s Chase; they’re just too inconsistent, and have missed a few too many chances when they’ve run well.

12th place Tony Stewart: Finally, Smoke has announced his future plans, and they don’t include more time in the Gibbs organization. He has decided to move on after this season and take on a role as driver/ part owner in the Haas team (which will be renamed Stewart Haas Racing). The impression that Stewart has been giving since this announcement says that a large burden has been lifted from him. And, considering his struggles of late, it may in fact help him and the team now that they all know what his future is. However, he needs to find his groove and get on one of his trademarked hot streaks now if he wants to end his time at Gibbs with a Chase birth and a shot at one last championship before departing. He remains on the bubble, despite improved runs in recent weeks. With a little bit of good luck, Stewart could very well win a few races in a row, and get himself out of hot water. All the same, he remains on the bubble, and will surely have to find better results now in order to assure himself and the team of a shot at a third championship.

13th place Kevin Harvick:  A 12th place finish may not be exactly what he and the 29 team wanted, but it could prove to help them in this stretch run, as many of their competitors for the last Chase spots ran into problems. However, like Bowyer and Biffle, this driver and team needs to find consistency and bring home top fives and tens in order to feel comfortable about qualifying for this year’s Chase. They remain with only five top ten finishes this year and two top fives, hardly enough to propel them into NASCAR’s postseason. A strong run at New Hampshire shows they’re capable of it, but they’ve yet to show they can do that consistently since this team won last year’s Daytona 500. In my opinion, I think the 29 team will be on the outside looking in after Richmond. Teammate Jeff Burton may be third in the standings, but this team looks a little lost at the moment, which I think will keep them out of The Chase.

14th place David Ragan: Continuing to show improvement this year, Ragan did himself and his team proud by finishing a fine fifth at Daytona. He may have the same number of top tens as Harvick, but he’s been a bit more consistent in that he’s usually up running in the top fifteen every week. Those runs won’t make any headlines, but they’re solid, quality results that will serve him and the team well. They’ve some ground to make up (they’re 102 points out of twelfth), but a few more top five runs, or even top tens, should see them improve their standing in the Race to The Chase. This is my Dark Horse pick to qualify for this year’s Chase, which is a real possibility. As a side, I’ll predict that he’ll get his first win in this stretch of races. If he does, he’ll have all of the momentum he needs to clinch a Chase birth.

15th place Brian Vickers: Like Ragan, this driver and team has drastically improved from last year. However, unlike Ragan, Vickers has not quite as consistent, and is slightly more behind in the standings. However, this team has showed the pace to win this year, but has been bitten a few costly errors (some his and the team’s fault, some NASCAR’s fault). However, if this group can become more consistent, not make mistakes, and even get a win or two in this stretch, don’t be surprised if this group sneaks in, and then proceeds to make a lot of noise in The Chase. However, time will start to run thin on them if they don’t start to clean up their performances.

16th place Ryan Newman: The Rocket Man is hanging on at the moment, but only barely, and looks to be too far back to mount a charge. I think this team is now starting to feel burdened by questions surrounding their driver’s future (Newman has yet resign with Penske) and the team’s future (sponsor Alltel may not be back due the company’s merger with Verizon). I think their focus will begin to turn to next year, giving them a chance to tie up some loose ends and make charge…in 2009. However, for this season, I think they’re done. It was nice effort, with the high point being a win in the Daytona 500, but I don’t think it will be enough.