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Which Fantasy Pitcher Do You Want, Clay Buchholz or Matt Garza?

Collin HagerJul 11, 2008

Yes, the music is playing again and the beers are coming around. The 'Table's back together and examining how to improve fantasy teams at the halfway point.

We're heading in to the second half of both the fantasy season and the regular season. Rosters have been chosen, and other than the additions of hot players or key trades, your roster is what it is.

Sure, players will pick up and drop off. A rookie or two will turn some heads. But the easiest place to impact your team is through pitching. And that's why we're tackling this question.

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Looking at the second half of the season, who is a better option: Matt Garza or Clay Buchholz. Let's break it down, Dr. Jack style.

Garza has been on of the surprise pitchers of the season. He struggled with control in Minnesota and never really was given the opportunity to pitch on a regular basis. Garza has a solid mid-90's fastball that he's complemented with some decent off-speed pitches, specifically a nasty slider.

He's working to keep hitters off balance by throwing three of his pitches in virtually any count. The location on his fastball has been pinpoint for most of the season. He's already owned in 93 percent of standard leagues. Not bad for a guy that wasn't on anyone's radar at this time last year.

His splits are impressive as well. Garza allows lefties to hit .236 while righties hit .234. At home, batters hit .231 against him and .241 on the road. Take out his three starts in April (0-0, 7.38 ERA), and Garza has been one of the ten best pitchers in the league.

Garza will see most of his action against division opponents the rest of the way. And he's excelled there.

In three games against Baltimore, they've hit just .191 against him. Boston is at .242 in three games. Toronto and the Yankees have each seen him once, but he notched a win against New York and only gave up one earned run in a loss to the Blue Jays. All in all, good for a 4-2 record in eight games.

His issue is on the road. Away from the Trop, he has an ERA at 5.09. He has only worked through six innings three times and only once beyond seven. In seven starts, he's given up at least four runs in five of them. Not good numbers. At home, he's been dominant.

ย Buchholz is a different beast. He looked awful at the beginning of the season to the point he was optioned back to Pawtucket. His spot went to Justin Masterson, who the Red Sox are moving to the bullpen, but Bartolo Colon could take it as well.

Buchholz needed to refine his motion to better locate his fastball. He had a tremendous amount of inconsistency with his arm slot, causing him to miss high repeatedly. He just couldn't throw it for strikes, as is evidenced by the 4.5 walks per nine innings this season.

He's back in the rotation as of tomorrow and will look to regain the form that made him so valuable to Boston last year. According to One Who Knows Things, he looked very good in AAA.

We know what he's capable of. There was the no-hitter last year and three impressive starts in a row early this season. The tools are there for him. But we can only draw on potential and what we've seen.

My concern is that Buchholz will come up and not be able to find the consistency in his delivery and start to tinker again. The danger is that Garza has never done this for a full season either.

He had 16 starts last season (same as he has now) and the numbers in the ERA, WHIP,ย and strikeout department were very similar. Buchholz will have the healthier arm heading down the stretch.

Both have question marks, both play for good offenses, and both are going to be needed to help their teams move forward. The difference in Boston is that they have another option with Bartolo Colon and can move Masterson back to the rotation if necessary.

Those two factorsย make me give the edge to Garza, even if it is very slight.

And it's a good thing we made the call, the pitchers are empty again.

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