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MLB Fantasy Baseball: Friday News and Notes
Collin HagerJul 10, 2008
Thursday brought a power surge to nearly every game. Ryan Howard was busy at the plate, and so too were every one of the Reds, as they were busy blasting seven home runs. Even better, as much as we saw offense, we also saw stellar pitching performances from some unexpected sources. We're heading in to the final weekend before the break, so let's get to the notes.
- Justin Morneau was the offensive hero yesterday. Morneau blasted five hits, including a home run, to lead the Twins over the Tigers. Morneau is on an absolute tear. Even in the sweep by the Red Sox, he managed to provide a huge part of the Twins offense. For the last seven games, he's hitting .500 with two home runs and five RBI.
- Vernon Wells was placed on the DL by the Blue Jays for the second time this season. Wells has been decidedly disappointing from a fantasy perspective. He comes in to each season with a lot of promise, but hasn't lived up to that hype. In most leagues, there are options on waivers that will allow you to make up the limited numbers that Wells has provided to this point in the season. I wouldn't waste the DL spot unless you have multiple.
- Moises Alou is done for the year. A tear in his hamstring was found that will require complete rest and potential surgery. This will pave the way for Ryan Church, when fully healthy, to man the outfield full-time without the concern of waiting for Alou to come back. Trot Nixon will be given the other shot, again once he comes off the DL.
- Mark Buehrle did have a solid outing against the Royals. He gave up two runs in seven-and-a-third, but neither were earned. He seems to always pitch well against the Royals and makes for a great matchup.
- It's getting downright silly when it comes to how well Dave Bush is pitching at home. Bush went eight innings, striking out 13, and did not give up an earned run. His home ERA has dropped now to 2.87, which is four runs better than his ERA on the road. Right now, I'd only recommend him when pitching at home because of that major disparity. Should he put together a couple good road outings in a row, then we can talk about universal ownership. Right now, keep it to deeper leagues or NL-only formats.
- Greg Smith continued his solid performances as well, going six innings without giving up a run. He didn't record a win, but Smith's gaining value in all formats. From Duchscherer, to Eveland, and to Smith, these three pitchers have solid value in all formats. Eveland and Smith should be owned in all AL-only formats and always started in any format when pitching at home.
- Andy Sonnanstine finally blew up. He's been playing with fire for some time now, as we've seen him pitching to contact a fair amount. Sonnanstine is going to have this happen. He'll pitch well and provide solid peripherals, but you always have to be prepared for an outing like this every five or so. He's not a valid option in most leagues beyond a spot start.
- People are giving Derek Jeter a hard time because his average is well below his career numbers. Jeter has been playing hurt for most of the season, since being hit in the hand back in May. In his last seven games, he's hitting .375. We aren't seeing the power, but his power numbers have dropped every year since 2004. Since 1996, he's only had three years where he drive in more than 78 runs. He's on pace for 71 this year. Jeter's average will come back as he gets more healthy. He's a great move to try and grab now.
Notes for today's games:
- I'd use Clay Buchholz today against Baltimore. The Orioles haven't seen much of him and Buchholz has altered his delivery to remain more consistent in the strikezone with his fastball. It's a good matchup for him to come back to.
- Jhonny Peralta is 3-8 with two home runs against James Shields. Grady Sizemore is 0-8. No one on Cleveland has seen Shields more than that, so I'd use my Indians as usual.
- Cliff Lee should always be started. As far as Rays, if you have a better option for Carlos Pena, I'd use him. Pena is just 3-16 against Lee in his career. Lee's numbers at home make any borderline Ray a sit option. Lee is 4-0 at home in six starts with a 1.84 ERA.
- Glen Perkins has faced Detroit twice this season, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Perkins has been reasonably solid, even away from home, and Minnesota's pitching, even in losing games, has been good from the starters. The problem has been more in the bullpen. You may not get a win, but I like Perkins as a start option today.
- Gavin Floyd hasn't been nearly as good on the road and will be in a pitcher's park against a Rangers team that is swinging very well right now. Unless you need the innings minimum, I'd be very cautious in using Floyd, given his 4.38 ERA on the road is nearly two runs worse than his home number. He's been very good this season, but it's a classic situation where we could see some runs scored.
- Felix Hernandez is back from the DL today. I think the matchup against Kansas City and Luke Hochevar benefits him enough to make this risk worth the gamble. I don't normally advocate this, but the injury shouldn't have been severe enough for owners to worry about his pitching. He's been able to throw on the side, just held back as precaution.
- Randy Winn is 7-16 and Rich Aurilia is 6-17 against Jason Marquis. If you have them on your roster, they both make a good option. Aaron Rowand is just 1-10 and should be replaced where possible.
- Kyle Lohse is 5-1 on the road, but his ERA is still over five and teams still hit .337 against him. Lohse has been very lucky, and sometimes that's better than being good. The Pirates aren't a pushover team, and he did not pitch well against them last time out. Keep him reserved.
- Really, start Manny Parra. Deep-league owners should be looking to add him to their rosters. Parra has shown consistency in and out of Milwaukee in the last month and a half. His numbers are better at home, and that's where he pitches tonight.
- We've given Jake Peavy a hard time recently, but his stats inside Petco are much better than they are on the road. He gets an Atlanta team that hasn't been hitting very well, so start him as normal. I also wouldn't hesitate to use his opponent, JoJo Reyes, strictly because of the benefit that exists with pitching in San Diego.
- Spot start calls? Buchholz, Parra, Reyes, and Eric Stults are the ways to go.
Notes for Saturday's games:
- Rich Harden will make his debut for the Cubs. Start him as you normally would until we're proven otherwise here.
- Jesse Litsch has been up and down, but is 4-1 at home with a respectable ERA around three. Most of the damage done against him by the Yankees is on the disabled list. Jeter is just 2-11 and Bobby Abreu is just 1-9. Makes a sneaky play as a spot-start.
- I'm on the Scott Baker bandwagon until further notice. He's going to be in a pitcher's park and has done nothing to deter owners from starting him. The Tigers have been playing well, but Baker is a healthy option. The Twins have already seen his opponent, Nate Robertson, three times and are hitting .343 against him this season.
- Radhames Liz is pitching in a small ballpark against a hot offense. He's been good, but this is not a matchup to look to use. Tim Wakefield has pitched well against Baltimore, but I'd make sure to use Kevin Millar, who has gone .458/3/8 against Wakefield.
- Matt Garza has struggled on the road, posting an ERA over five. When Garza is on, he's still one of the best pitchers available. I wouldn't use him in this case though.
- Both Hiroki Kuroda and Ricky Nolasco are good plays. Nolasco has pitched very well lately, going 5-0 in his last six starts. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs during that time. The Dodgers don't exactly have a high-octane offense, and Nolasco makes the better play of the two as a result. I'd keep Kuroda in the lineup as well, since he's managed to look good in both starts since returning from the shoulder injury.
- Greg Maddux is pitching at home. Dana Eveland is pitching at home. So, you know.
- David DeJesus is a .412 hitter against Jarrod Washburn. I'd play all of your Royals in this matchup, but DeJesus is the best of the lot for this game. Washburn is just 2-5 on the road with a 4.88 ERA. That's about all you need to know there.
- Todd Wellemeyer is 2-0 on the road with a 3.00 ERA in eight starts and is 2-0 against Pittsburgh on the season. He's struggled recently, but this is the type of start that will get him back on track.
- John Danks has pitched well everywhere he's been this season. In eight road starts, he has a 1.48 ERA and a 3-1 record. Keep him in your lineup. Kevin Millwood will be pitching with a sore groin, so keep all White Sox in the lineup and be prepared to go without him pitching if you have other options. There is a high likelihood he could be scratched.
- Spot start calls? Go with Wellemeyer, Eveland, Maddux, and Gil Meche.
Back as the need arises. Check out the full Roundtable blog.

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