Last week I explained how the Georgia Bulldogs would not be able to live up to the lofty expectations set by experts across the country. This week, it’s the Florida Gators’ turn.
The 2008-2009 Gators have a loaded offense, the returning Heisman winner, a manageable schedule, and one of the country’s best coaches—a sure-fire recipe for a national championship contender.
But here are five reasons the Florida Gators will not only miss out on the national championship game, but also on winning the SEC.
1.) The Defense
The Gator defense was flat-out awful last year, and while all those players are now a year older, we just don’t know if they’ll be any better.
In the SEC, it all starts in the trenches, so if Florida can’t get a pass rush or stop the run, it will be déjà vu in 2008. While I think Florida’s defense will be improved, it will still be a very young squad, and eventually that youth will catch up with them in a close game.
2.) Two-Minute Offense
Gator fans don’t want to hear this—and some will argue otherwise—but the fact is, Tim Tebow never led the Gators to a come-from-behind win last season, despite three chances to do so: against Auburn, LSU, and Michigan.
This is obviously not all on Tebow, as play calling and other players factor into the two-minute drill. But clearly the Gators did not have the late game execution they wanted in their three closest losses of last season—and it all starts with Tebow.
That said, I wouldn’t bet against the kid working on his two-minute drill right this second, and for every waking minute until the Gators kick off against Hawaii. If anybody can correct a part of his game, it’s Tebow.
3.) Tebow Backlash
Face it, Tim Tebow has embarrassed a lot of teams in his brief career. In addition, the kid has garnered national attention for seemingly everything he has done—and for all the right reasons. Tebow is a class act, a role model for youngsters, an unquestioned leader, and an excellent teammate.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t sit well with opponents. While I highly doubt too many defenders will actually get the last word on Number 15, some determined team will find a chink in the Gator armor and take down Gary Danielson’s man crush.
And with the way the BCS system works, that one loss could very well be the Gators’ undoing.
4.) Urban Meyer’s Stubbornness
For the record, I think Urban Meyer is a great coach. But the guy’s idol is Woody Hayes—and like Hayes, he carries that old school stubbornness (which some would call arrogance) to the field.
147 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Justin Goar 12 months ago
well, at least you haven't done one of these on LSU yet.
good read, this year in the SEC sure is gonna be fun and interesting.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
1.) quarterback
2.) loss of too many key seniors
3.) the history alone involved with repeating as champs
4.) all those bounces going their way last year have to catch up to them
5.) @ Auburn, FL, SC: all teams looking for payback
No need for another 900 words.
And agreed, SEC football will be insane this year. Halfway through July already!
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"1.) quarterback"
No need for another 900 words... This is the simple reason why I have Alabama (and NOT Auburn), winning the SEC West :)
Alabama returns a 3-year starter, in senior QB John Parker Wilson... while Auburn will have a newcomer at QB :)
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Justin Goar 12 months ago
"1.) quarterback
2.) loss of too many key seniors
3.) the history alone involved with repeating as champs
4.) all those bounces going their way last year have to catch up to them
5.) @ Auburn, FL, SC: all teams looking for payback
No need for another 900 words."
well now i'm just sad. :(
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Sorry, dude.
LSU: A winning tradition since...never mind.
I suspect you already know it will be an up and down year for your Tigers, though.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Sorry, dude.
LSU: A winning tradition since...never mind."
Tim, it's actually:
LSU FOOTBALL
A WINNING TRADITION . . . SINCE AUGUST 2003
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Justin Goar 12 months ago
at least you beat him to it.
i'll be wearing my reality glasses this year so the road won't be too rough, b/c i'm prepared.
miles 2009 recruiting class is one of the top 3 right now and will be up there when it's all said and done so happier days will still be ahead.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"at least you beat him to it.
i'll be wearing my reality glasses this year so the road won't be too rough, b/c i'm prepared."
LSU FOOTBALL
A TRADITION . . . SINCE AUGUST 2003
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MIke Davis 12 months ago
Good points. Urban is a great coach; but, his flaws will cost him a game this yr. And, the suspect D will not play well in the SEC east.
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Michael Felder 12 months ago
Great article Tim, but:
I still put full faith in Florida's defense being a year older and a year better. I think Major Wright and his backend guys are going to free up Charlie Strong to do more stunts and blitzing.
The two minute offense is somewhat of a toss up, Florida is potent enough to score on every play and their offense is designed to dictate a fast tempo. Tebow surely, as you said, not only knows he didn't lead them from behind, but has done work to improve on this flaw.
Backlash is the most dangerous thing for Florida and as far as that is concerned I truly hope that some knucklehead doesn't resort to a cheapshot on someone who will end his career as one of the NCAA's most prolific players. He's a class guy who plays hard, not dirty, and I definitely hope he makes it through the season.
Meyer, like Hayes, just wants to win and if it works run the play until they stop it. With that said his "fumble and the only football you'll be seeing is the NCAA logo one on your jersey" attitude puts Tebow in harms way and he's got to find a way to stop that. Chris Rainey should help.
The Byrum Game was horrible for them, but that game was after Tebow ran 27 times to beat Ole Miss by himself. This years SEC title game should be interesting with either Florida or Georgia facing off against Auburn or LSU.
Great article Tim and I'll definitely be watching this stuff. I think the backlash and defense will be the two biggest deciding factors. I've bought in to the defense getting better with experience but the Tebow hate will reach tremendous levels this year, perhaps enough for a problem to occur.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"The Byrum Game was horrible for them, but that game was after Tebow ran 27 times to beat Ole Miss by himself. This years SEC title game should be interesting with either Florida or Georgia facing off against Auburn or LSU."
I still do NOT understand why... YOU are leaving out Alabama, in the SEC West race :)
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Great comments, Michael.
As we've discussed before, I agree that FL's defense will be better. But they will have to rely on a lot of inexperienced guys up front.
Meyer is loving Rainey now, but what happens when the kid loses the grip on the ball, or tries to reverse field and gets caught for a 10 yard loss? I think Rainey will make some huge plays here and there, but the love-fest from Meyer might end early in the season, especially if the kid gets a big head from all the press he's getting...we'll see, though.
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Eric Brown 12 months ago
Spot on analysis. However, I think this year sets up better for the Gators than any year since the mid 90's. Schedule is tough, but manageable. Biggest games are at home (Miami, LSU, South Carolina) and the first road test at Tennessee is a mid day game instead of at night. In the SEC, you want your road games to be as early as possible to negate the deafening effects of moonshine.
Florida's defense will probably improve by a handful of baby steps, but it will have a larger margin for error this year. The offense that scored 42 ppg last year has more playmakers, more speed, more offensive line depth, and a year's worth of time to fine tune.
And assuming your prediction comes through and Florida meets Auburn in the SECCG, the Gators will have one less monkey on their back when they take the field. No more Will Muschamp. That guy could cook up a defensive scheme like no other, and he and Tubberville were masters of big game preparation. Lots of SEC fans will be deeply sorry to see him go to Texas.
How.
Much.
Longer?
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Eric,
Great point. I completely forgot about Muschamp's ("Boom MFers!") influence.
I've got the Gators as champs in 2009-2010. Tebow's senior year to honor his idol and mentor, Danny Wuerfel. Whether Percy will stick around with him is another story...
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Eric Brown 12 months ago
Willing to bet both of our houses on Percy not sticking around...
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Willing to bet both of our houses on Percy not sticking around..."
I agree, Percy Harvin is not going to stick for his senior season... In fact, I think that Percy will be the #1 pick of the 2009 NFL Draft :)
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Tatyana Albert 11 months ago
How do you know that Tennessee game is a midday game? As far as I know, the time for this game has not been posted yet.
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Ben White 12 months ago
Good article. I agree that Florida will have a tough time and I hope you are right about them facing Auburn in the SEC championship game. I would like to think that Tubby has discovered the magical formula to beat Urban Meyer's star heavy offense. Hopefully we will see that matchup come December.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Good article. I agree that Florida will have a tough time and I hope you are right about them facing Auburn in the SEC championship game. I would like to think that Tubby has discovered the magical formula to beat Urban Meyer's star heavy offense. Hopefully we will see that matchup come December."
Sorry, Auburn will NOT be in the SEC Championship Game... because the Tigers will LOSE to Alabama, in the Iron Bowl :)
Alabama is going to the SEC Championship Game... THIS SEASON :)
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Ryan 12 months ago
Good analysis.... like we've learned time and again (Pats in their first three SB's, Celtics, Spurs, Pistons, sadly the Giants this past year) defense wins championships and even though I like Urban Meyer and the Gators their defense isn't good enough to win the SEC Championship
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"5.) Auburn Before I give my reasons for listing Auburn as the fifth item, I first want to assure you that I know Auburn is not on Florida’s schedule. However, I think Auburn will win the West and will meet the Gators in the SEC Championship Game. And then…
Well, in short, Auburn has been Florida’s daddy recently. And it’s not so much that Auburn has beaten Florida, it’s the way they’ve beaten the Gators—in the most heartbreaking, gut-wrenching, punch-yourself-in-the-face type of games.
Last season, Auburn shut down the Gators’ passing attack and limited them to fewer plays than any game in the season. The game concluded with freshman Wes Byrum nailing a time-expiring field goal—and then Byrum proceeded to mock the Gator chomp…in the Swamp. Final score: 20-17.
In 2006, the Tigers won a once-in-a-lifetime type game, scoring 27 points without scoring an offensive touchdown. Despite being outgained and outplayed, Auburn came up with a crucial blocked punt in the third quarter, and the game was changed forever.
From there, the Gators self-destructed en route to zero second-half points, and—just to add insult to injury—the Tigers scored another time-expiring touchdown after a Chris Leak fumble.
At the time, it appeared the Gators were knocked out of the national championship hunt.
Finally, in 2001, another close game ended with a time-expiring score, as Damon Duval crushed a 44-yard field goal to send Tiger fans into a craze over their 23-20 victory.
More than any team, Auburn simply has found a way to limit the Gators’ potent offenses. The formula has been simple: They’ve controlled the time of possession, won the turnover battle, played stiff defense, and connected on clutch field goals.
No doubt that Tebow and crew will put up gaudy numbers in 2008-2009. The number of playmakers that Florida has on offense and special teams will give defensive coordinators nightmares.
In the end, though, I see a raggedy but stubborn Auburn team—with more conference losses than both Florida and Georgia—sneaking away with this year's SEC Championship."
Sorry Tim, but I do NOT think that Auburn will even make the SEC Championship Game... because I have Alabama winning the SEC West :)
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Ryan Staab 12 months ago
Great read, Tim, but I still think whoever wins the Florida-Georgia game will essentially be the SEC champs and eventual BCS champs. There's too much talent on both those teams to not go all the way this year.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
FLORIDA GATORS FOOTBALL
A TRADITION . . . SINCE SEPTEMBER 7, 1991
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Ryan Staab 12 months ago
Jimson I have every reason in the world to hate the Gators, but you can't really argue with the talent Urban Meyer's cultivated there since being hired. Both Florida and Georgia have an embarassment of riches on both sides of the ball and there's absolutely no reason why either one couldn't go all the way this year.
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Gator Fan 12 months ago
Jimson, aren't you a Kansas fan? Because that school isn't even a tradition
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Jeff Allen 12 months ago
Jimson: A fan of Kansas football.......as long as they have a good record.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Jimson: A fan of Kansas football.......as long as they have a good record."
Actually, it's more like:
JIMSON CUENTA: A FAN OF KANSAS FOOTBALL . . . FOR AS LONG AS HE IS ALIVE :)
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Jeff Allen 12 months ago
Kansas Football.....A Tradition of Irrelevance
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
OHIO STATE FOOTBALL
A TRADITION . . . WHERE 11 WINS IS GREATER THAN 12 WINS
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Jeff Allen 12 months ago
That made no sense.
Ohio State football....Anyone else ever gone 14-0?
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Ryan Staab 12 months ago
JEFF AND JIMSON PLEASE GO ARGUE THIS SOMEWHERE ELSE, I'M TIRED OF GETTING EMAILS SAYING THAT PEOPLE ARE RESPONDING TO MY COMMENT ONLY TO FIND OUT ITS YOU TWO ARGUING ABOUT MIDWESTERN PATSIES.
WE'RE ALL WINNERS HERE.
THANK YOU ;)
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Jeff Allen 12 months ago
Ok.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"That made no sense.
Ohio State football....Anyone else ever gone 14-0?"
Well, the 2007 Kansas Jayhawks have come the closest... but NOBODY else has gone 14-0, besides the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes :)
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Alex Ferguson 12 months ago
One team who WILL underperform - because they have done for the last ten years - Tennessee. But don't expect Florida to get an easy game in Neyland Stadium....
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
I don't really know what you are talking about because... Tennessee underperformed in 2005, by going 5-6. Besides, there is NO WAY IN HELL that... Tennessee makes up 40 points against Florida, in the span of 1 year :)
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Patrick Clarke 12 months ago
I'm a Florida fan, but I kind of agree here, only the defense will be much improved this year, and auburn is the last team the gators have to worry about in the SEC
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
And besides, Auburn has to worry about beating Alabama, first... BEFORE they can even think about playing Florida, in the SEC Championship Game :)
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Paul Witten 12 months ago
Im not so convinced your defense is improved yet. We'll see week one though. That offense has got some talent though. Who's going to be your starting running back though? Or whatever you refer to him with that weird spread system Urban runs. Rainey or Moody?
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Dave Jr. Robb 12 months ago
It (Gators Defense) really only needs to improve by 18% over last year to run the table. Injuries are already adding up with Monroe out for the season. Again it looks like we Gators will have to depend on a true Freshman in the mix at Safety opposite Major (or some type of rotation). CARLOS DUNLAP....remember that name. Not only will he and Major be the breakout players this year but Carlos will be the Gator MVP and at all award ceremonies at the end of the year. Just have a really good feeling about this Mountain of a man with a 6'9" wingspan and SPEED.
42 points per game last year could be 50.4 this year (20% improvement) as the schedule, playmakers and speed have all been made MUCH Better.
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Tyler Jones 12 months ago
In response to reason number three, I think you're right. we saw that last year in Arkansas after McFadden tore up defenses his sophomore year like Tebow.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
1) The defense will be much better.
Meyer said this spring that the secondary was the most improved part of the team. While you could argue that there was no place to go but up, he rarely gives out praise in the offseason unless he really means it.
Another year to bulk up, the arrival of Dan McCarney, and the additions of John Brown and Omar Hunter mean the D-line should be a whole lot better. Not 2006 good, but a lot better.
2) Completely understandable for a sophomore, especially when against Auburn, Percy Harvin decided to dance around and get tackled for a loss on first down rather than just go forward a gain a couple. It's a fair criticism, but I have confidence it will improve as a part of the natural progression of a quarterback getting better.
3) Meaningless. FSU was already tired of hearing about Tebow, they talked trash about it, and they still got stomped 45-12. Michigan didn't want to hear about it, and its good defense gave up 35 points, the third-highest total it had given up all year. Defenses always get fired up to play great offensive players, but those players are great because they still overcome it.
4) There are enough playmakers this year that we shouldn't get stuck watching the Tebow/Harvin show like we did at times last year. They got the worst about that during the Ole Miss-Auburn-LSU stretch, which happened to be three of the four games that Andre Caldwell was out or hampered by injury.
There were basically no running backs behind Kestahn Moore last year other than the tiny Brandon James thanks to Mon Williams' injury. Between Emmaunel Moody, Moore, Chris Rainey, Williams, and James, there's plenty at RB in 2008.
There are also plenty of targets between Harvin, Louis Murphy, Cornelius Ingram, Aaron Hernandez, Carl Moore, Deonte Thompson and others that with another year of Tebow learning to read routes, the passing game should not stagnate.
5) Not guaranteed but possible, and if Caldwell is healthy then Florida beats Auburn last year. It's not as big a deal as you might think.
I don't know that Florida will win the conference or national title, but there's reason for optimism. Despite one of the worst defenses the school has had in the last 25 years, they still went 9-3 in the regular season. This year, the team will be better and the schedule is easier, so 10-2 or better is not unreasonable.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
David,
1.) I agree that the defense will be better. But John Brown and Omar Hunter have yet to take a snap in college. They could both be great, but surely they will make some freshman mistakes that will lead to big plays. If McCarney can do for Dunlap what he did for Selvie at USF, things will be looking good on the ends.
3.) Agree to disagree. FSU and Michigan were terrible teams. A motivated Auburn team held the Gators to 3 first half points. LSU severely limited the Gators in the second half.
4.) But they had those playmakers last year, too. CI got lost in the mix way too much. He went far too many quarters, halves, and even games without getting enough looks. Murphy and Cooper--both burners--became nothing but decoys. Carl Moore seems like somewhat of a disappointment so far, but in any case, they might actually have too many guys looking for the ball...I know, a problem a lot of coaches would want.
5.) I've never been one to use injury as an excuse--and it's just too much speculation to say "If Player X had played, they would have won." Not sure what you mean by 'not as big a deal as you might think.'
There is absolutely reason for optimism, and I agree that FL will end the year with 2 losses.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
1) Brown and Hunter are block eaters in the middle. Their job is to be big and take up space to free up Cunningham and Dunlap on the edges. If they do miss something, Brandon Spikes or Dustin Doe will be right there to clean it up. They won't both be starters, but they provide depth and either will be an upgrade over the undersized Javier Estopinan and the not so great Clint McMillan.
3) FSU was 34th in scoring defense (22.9 a game) and Michigan was 23rd (21.4 a game). They may not have been excellent overall teams, but their defenses were pretty good. Auburn was 6th (16.9 a game) and LSU was 17th (19.9 a game), so struggling against them had a lot to do with them just being great defenses. Let's also not forget that 24 points was enough to beat LSU if the UF defense could have gotten a stop on either of the fourth down conversions on LSU's final drive.
4) Murphy was a surprise contributor in 2007 after having done nothing previously, so anything they got from him was almost a bonus. This is the year to expect something from him. Cooper was hampered by injuries much of the year. CI did get lost at times, sure, but up until last year Meyer and Mullen had never really used a tight end in their offense.
5) I was referring to your allusion to some sort of hex that Auburn has put on the Gators. For some reason, Florida just struggles against SEC West teams as a general rule, something that started late in the Spurrier years. However, Florida is also 6-2 in SEC championship games and that includes a win over Auburn in 2000. Facing Auburn specifically in the SECCG is not as big a deal as you might think.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
1.) Seems like we found middle ground there. Improved but not dominant. Yes?
2.) I guess I could argue that the teams FSU and Michigan played did not have high-powered, but that would take us nowhere. Clearly the Gators need to find ways to adjust their offense when it's not working.
3.) Murphy was the breakout performer of the Orange and Blue game two years ago, and much like Meyer announced this year that Rainey would start, he did the same for Murphy. If anything, they were expecting a lot from the guy. He was a starter on an extremely talented team, but you seem to be portraying him as more of a David Nelson type.
4.) Point taken. FL does always struggle that first week of October. Still, though, the way Auburn has won is pretty remarkable.
Good stuff; thanks for the comments.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
Everyone I knew down in Gainesville (and the local press too) had high hopes for Harvin, Caldwell, and Ingram, but the attitude on Murphy was more of "maybe we'll get something out of him this year." No one thought he'd be the third-leading receiver on the team after catching just two balls all of 2006.
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Liger 12 months ago
I know I'm going to be called a homer, but I too think UF will play Auburn in the SEC Championship game. But it's going to be Auburn's defense that amazes people more than our offense.
As far as UF is concferned, I think Urban Meyer has finally learned that you're not going to win in the SEC just because Superman is your QB. If that offense starts spreading the ball around more it's not going to matter that their defense is mediocre. Having said that though, I think even their defense improves in 08. They will be the team to beat in the East.
The 2nd team in the East will be UGA, but UT is my dark horse pick in the East.
The 2nd team in the West will be LSU, of course.
I'm not sure what over the past several years has led anyone to believe it's going to be anything but AU-LSU in the West. If anything, Petrino will have a break out season his first year and put UA into the mix.
Someone mentioned Bama because they have a senior QB and AU and LSU has 2 new QBs. Not sure that's a good line of reasoning because the in 2005 Bama had a 4 or Five star veteran QB and AU had a new QB and not only did Bama not win the IB, they finished 3rd in the West.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Someone mentioned Bama because they have a senior QB and AU and LSU has 2 new QBs"
I'm glad that someone is actually PAYING ATTENTION... I'm PRETTY SURE that I re-iterated this FACT, like 6 or 7 times, now :)
"Not sure that's a good line of reasoning because the in 2005 Bama had a 4 or Five star veteran QB and AU had a new QB and not only did Bama not win the IB, they finished 3rd in the West."
Oh, I remember that year... because Alabama was ranked #3, with a 9-0 record, heading into their game AT HOME, on SENIOR DAY, against the LSU Tigers :)
But unfortunately, Brodie Croyle and the Alabama Crimson Tide LOST AT HOME, on SENIOR DAY... to the LSU Tigers :)
And on the following week, Croyle was sacked 11 times... en route to losing AT Auburn :)
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Justin Hokanson 12 months ago
I'll take it!
Hope everyone isn't putting too much hype around Auburn though. We have to figure out our quarterback situation before we can be making predictions like that.
Plus, LSU is being forgotten about but they shouldn't be. If they find a solid quarterback, they can easily win the west. They have the best O line and D line in the conference. They have talent everywhere, if Jarrett Lee turns out ot be a good quarterback then they canbe right back in Atlanta.
The East will come down to Florida vs. Georgia though. It has to. Winner of that game is in Atlanta.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"I'll take it!
Hope everyone isn't putting too much hype around Auburn though. We have to figure out our quarterback situation before we can be making predictions like that."
Um, I've said this like 4 or 5 times, now :)
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Justin Hokanson 12 months ago
Maybe, but nobody listens to what you say because you're a Kansas homer. : )
Nothing like a Kansas fan dogging someone else's football tradition. Hilarious.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Don't worry:
MY Kansas Jayhawks will be RIGHTFULLY RANKED AHEAD of Auburn... when the PRESEASON polls are released :)
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Justin Hokanson 12 months ago
Wow, preseason polls? really? That is huge!
Kansas-496 all time wins, 5 HUGE bowl wins.
Auburn-650 all time wins, 19 bowl wins, 2 Heisman Trophy winners.
You don't even want me to embarass you with the draft picks of the two schools the last 10 years do you?
So enough with acting like your team is something special in football. Stick to basketball and just enjoy the fact that you are having some success in football. : )
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Justin,
That's a big "if" for LSU's quarterback situation. Meanwhile, if Burns is the guy for Auburn, he will already have some experience under his belt--somewhat similar to what Tebow did as a freshman (and no, I'm not predicting that Kodi Burns will win the Heisman).
I think it comes down to schedules for both divisions: FL has an easier road than GA, and Auburn has an easier road than LSU.
I'll never understand how Tuberville can come up huge in big games but fall flat against inferior opponents.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"That's a big "if" for LSU's quarterback situation. Meanwhile, if Burns is the guy for Auburn, he will already have some experience under his belt--somewhat similar to what Tebow did as a freshman (and no, I'm not predicting that Kodi Burns will win the Heisman)."
But still, you CANNOT argue the FACT that Alabama's QB situation is MUCH MORE SETTLED... than both Auburn and LSU's QB situations :)
"I think it comes down to schedules for both divisions: FL has an easier road than GA, and Auburn has an easier road than LSU."
I agree that that it will come down to schedules in the SEC East... because Florida CLEARLY has an easier road than LSU :)
However, I do NOT think that it will come down to schedules in the SEC West... Besides, I can argue that Auburn does NOT have an easier road than LSU.
Let's take a look, at a quick sample, of Auburn's schedule:
@ Mississippi
vs. LSU
@ West Virginia
vs. Georgia
@ Alabama
In my opinion, this is NOT (by any means) an easy schedule... I can make a VERY GOOD CASE, that Auburn will LOSE 4 of these games :)
In the end, I think that the SEC West will be decided by... the simple fact that Alabama has a senior QB, that is a 3-year starter :)
And please, STOP leaving out Alabma in the SEC West race :)
"I'll never understand how Tuberville can come up huge in big games but fall flat against inferior opponents."
Moreover, I have noticed that Tuberville comes up huge in big games, ON THE ROAD... while he falls flat against inferior opponents, AT HOME :)
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dave jenkins 12 months ago
"Auburn will win the west"
Dude, that's a good one. Why exactly will LSU be out of the picture? Everybody wants to focus on the fact that they lost Perilloux but they are still loaded on both sides of the ball. We will really see on 9/20 though won't we? I'll be there.
SEC Championship:
LSU vs. Georgia
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Dude, that's a good one. Why exactly will LSU be out of the picture? Everybody wants to focus on the fact that they lost Perilloux but they are still loaded on both sides of the ball. We will really see on 9/20 though won't we? I'll be there."
dude, NOBODY is leaving LSU out of the picture... If anything, you should be asking why ALABAMA is being left out of the picture :)
"SEC Championship:
LSU vs. Georgia"
Okay, here is my SEC Championship:
Alabama vs. #1 Florida
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Dave,
Walk me through LSU's wins and losses.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Okay, I'll do it for him:
8/30 Appalachian State 5:00 PM - L
9/06 Troy 8:00 PM - W
9/13 North Texas 8:00 PM - W
9/20 @ Auburn TBA - W
9/27 Mississippi State TBA - W
10/11 @ Florida TBA - L
10/18 @ South Carolina TBA - W
10/25 Georgia TBA - L
11/01 Tulane 8:00 PM - W
11/08 Alabama TBA - L
11/22 Mississippi TBA - W
11/28 @ Arkansas 2:30 PM - W
I predict that LSU will go 8-4 overall, 5-3 SEC :)
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Lisa Horne 12 months ago
Sigh! I hope you are wrong. Would love to see some chompers in the BCS game. I agree on the defense, and agree on Tebow. However, this year the Gators might have a very good running game to take pressure off of Superman.
Auburn will be tough, but seriously, they tend to lose a game they shouldn't. I am hoping it happens again this year. Chomp Chomp!
Good stuff here!
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Auburn will be tough, but seriously, they tend to lose a game they shouldn't."
omg, I know... That is why I think that Alabama will WIN the Iron Bowl, and WIN the SEC West :)
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Ben White 12 months ago
"Auburn will be tough, but seriously, they tend to lose a game they shouldn't. I am hoping it happens again this year. Chomp Chomp!"
Florida would likely be favored in that game. Auburn tends to win games it is not supposed to win (say Florida the last 2 years).
No one cares that you think Alabama will win the West Jimson. You have to make people care about your opinion. Repeatedly saying it will happen does nothing.
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Jimson Cuenta 11 months ago
"No one cares that you think Alabama will win the West Jimson. You have to make people care about your opinion. Repeatedly saying it will happen does nothing."
And this is coming from a BIASED Auburn fan, lolz :)
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Half Wookie 12 months ago
I am a huge gator fan, but have to acknowledge that this is a great article and was fun to read--the Auburn losses did make me want to punch myself in the face. You have 4 points that are good, but I don't buy point #3. From what I've seen thus far, Tebow will overcome the newfound target on his back.
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BabyTate 12 months ago
Tim! You are out on a limb on this one. The Gators have what it takes. Your set up of Florida vs Auburn would rank as an alltime SEC title game.
Jimson's statement that Appalachian State beats LSU might be more shocking, especially if it comes true!
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Tim! You are out on a limb on this one. The Gators have what it takes. Your set up of Florida vs Auburn would rank as an alltime SEC title game."
Actually, Tim is being so pro-Auburn, lol :)
"Jimson's statement that Appalachian State beats LSU might be more shocking, especially if it comes true!"
At this time last season... NOBODY said that Appalachian State would beat Michigan :)
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Nick The Only 12 months ago
Some fundamental flaws with your article:
1. The gators led the SEC in rush defense last year. In fact, Florida was top 10 nationally in rush defense. Thus, item 1's "In the SEC, it all starts in the trenches, so if Florida can’t get a pass rush or stop the run, it will be déjà vu in 2008" is not accurate. Only Florida's pass defense was awful.
2. The offense scored 42.5 points per game last season. If the defense is even marginally better, the offense should average another possession per game. And Percy Harvin should be healthy and there should be a running game. Florida is very likely a team that will average 50 points per game next year. My point: the defense will have time to catch up to the offense and many teams will struggle to keep up with Florida's scoring.
3. Auburn - simply not a good a reason. See Florida v. Georgia last year. Just because Florida owned UGa for so long doesn't mean that game will not be decided on the field.
Bottom line: This is Florida's SEC/national title birth to lose. The offense will be greatly improved (from a 42.5 ppg squad). The defense looks to be improved (DE Carlos Dunlap is a beast - 6'7", 290 lbs with Derrick Harvey speed, LB Spikes is a first round pick, the secondary has no where to go but up) and the special teams will once again be outstanding (Florida had the best punt coverage in the nation and has one of the best kick/punt returners in the country).
The national title is going to come down to Florida-Georgia, OSU-USC, the Big 12 title and the SEC title game. I guarantee (I know I'm not going out on a limb here) that BOTH title game teams will have played in one of the games.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
1.) Why would a team run against FL when they could pass all over the place (and did)? Even Ole Miss tore them up in the air. Stats are misleading.
2.) PPG mean nothing in wins. In the three conference games FL lost, they scored 17, 24, and 30. Good defenses found ways to stop the Gators. If you think the Gators are going to hang 50 on LSU this year, I would maybe rethink that one.
3.) Not sure why this isn't a valid reason. Auburn has held the Gators to fewer points and possessions than any other team. If the two do in fact meet up, the game will be a close one for sure.
Agreed that FL's special teams are some of the best in the nation, but the "nowhere to go but up" argument doesn't do it for me.
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Gator Fan 12 months ago
Great article. Even though I'm a Gator fan, I agree somewhat with all of these issues. For starters, our defense needs to prove it can do well before it gets all of these accolades. As for the two-minute drill, Tebow was a victim of a terrible defense. He never threw a bad 4th quarter interception or fumbled. He is pretty reliable. I think that the Auburn game in 07 was a slap in the face that we needed to diversify our play calls. We did that and we ended up doing better. Georgia was never a game in which we were able to come back because our defense couldn't stop anything. LSU was similar to Georgia, but Kestahn Moore lost that game with his fumble. As for Michigan, that team was inspired and if they played like that all season they'd have won the BCS title. I think that Urban Meyer is stubborn, but he can call some great plays. I know Tebow will be a target, and teams will be looking to scare him into not rolling out. But as a dual threat he has to stick to his gameplan. Also, our o-line will be great and I doubt he'll be sacked in the pocket at all. But my greatest fear this season is if we have to play Auburn in the SEC title. I don't think we will, but it does scare me. I think it will be LSU. But again, good read. If possible, make one about USC and OSU not winning the national title
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Nick The Only 12 months ago
One (or maybe two) points RE: the MICHIGAN-FLORIDA debacle:
These are the reasons why Florida lost the capitol one bowl (the media has never picked up on these):
1. Eric Rutledge. He was Florida's "starting" Fullback. He was kicked off the team before the bowl game. All season long he was the guy who (a) paved the way for Tebow on designed runs and (b) picked up blitzes. Florida used a back-up linebacker to replace him. The LB did not have the skill or experience to be Tebow's protector during the game, which resulted in Michigan getting to Tebow a lot.
2. Urban Meyer's lack of adjustments. When Michigan was getting to Tebow on blitzes, Meyer kept the team in the 4 and 5 wide formations instead of leaving multiple blockers back. I think he did this as a result of not having a reliable backfield blocker like Rutledge, but it may just have been his spread offense stubborness.
This year:
1. Aaron Hernandez will play the hybrid fullback (h-back type) position. He is a big kid 6-2 or 6-3" and over 250 lbs. He also runs a 4.4 sec 40 time and set the national high school single season receiving record with 1800+ receiving yards in a season as a TE. He looks to be a sound blocker and a great secret weapon (he averaged 17 yards per catch on 9 catches last season).
2. Got no facts here. Just hope that Hernandez stays healthy and Meyer recognizes when he needs to provide more protections for Tebow.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Nick,
It's not like Rutledge got kicked off in the tunnel before the game. The coaching staff knew well ahead of time that Rutledge would not be playing--and therefore should have had plenty of time to gameplan accordingly.
If you ask me, Meyer was too busy toting Harvin for this year's Heisman instead of getting his team ready.
As for Hernandez, he's not much of a secret weapon; the entire country knows about him. In fact, I ranked him as the 5th best TE in the SEC: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/24409-sec-football-position-rankings-offense
He could end up being a more athletic Billy Latsko.
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Nick The Only 12 months ago
Omar - Great point RE: the Two-minute drill.
I cannot remember a game where Tebow was on the field with enough time to win it and failed to do so. Against Georgia, the Center botched the snap when Florida was down by 2 scores with a few minutes to go. Tebow was leading the team down the field for a score when that happened.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Nick, please review either game tape or check ESPN.com's drive tracker for Tebow-led drives stopping short of scoring with time left. Auburn, LSU, and Michigan (and Michigan actually gave him two chances).
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Actually, Auburn won the game on a LAST-SECOND field goal :)
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Because the Gators had to give them the ball back, Jimson. That's the point.
The Gators had the ball at their 42 (very good field position) with right under 5 minutes left and the score tied at 17. Three plays and negative 6 yards later, they had to punt it away.
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David Cohen 12 months ago
The Gators are gonna roll...we'll I'll be up in college so I hope they do, lol.
For the most part your reasoning is the concerns I have, especially the play calling and defense. I'll believe the defense is improved when I see it. They were real young last year but didn't show ANY improvement. The fact that they didn't hit Georgia in the mouth after their little dance really bothers me.
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dave jenkins 12 months ago
8/30 Appalachian State 5:00 PM - W!!! what are you smokin?? (wish I could be there)
9/06 Troy 8:00 PM - W
9/13 North Texas 8:00 PM - W
9/20 @ Auburn TBA - W
9/27 Mississippi State TBA - W
10/11 @ Florida TBA - W
10/18 @ South Carolina TBA - W
10/25 Georgia TBA - L
11/01 Tulane 8:00 PM - W
11/08 Alabama TBA - W
11/22 Mississippi TBA - W
11/28 @ Arkansas 2:30 PM - W
One loss to UGA and I think we lose to them again in SEC title game
Sugar Bowl: LSU beats Oklahoma
BCS Nat'l Champ Game: Georgia spanks Ohio State(OSU cannot hang with the SEC)
Florida and Auburn both out of the picture but one of them will get the highly coveted Capital One Bowl.
Don't hate on LSU because they have won 2 national championships in 5 years.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
You're just like every other delusional college football fan. I can't believe all these LSU fans that think the even have a chance for a NC or even and SEC Championship. Nobody is objective anymore.
Look at who you lost, both QB, RB, best WR, two best DB, TE, all american saftey, MLB, and DT. Not to mention other I couldn't think off. LSU will lose at least 3 games this season, at least.
This years LSU team is exactly like the last season florida gators. You won a NC and then everyone left for the draft. Only difference between the 2008-2009 LSU Tigers and the 2007-2008 Florida Gators is that the Gators had a guy named Tim Tebow waiting to start, maybe you've heard of him.
@ Auburn could be a loss, no way in hell you're going into the swamp and beating UF (and i hate the Gators), @ USC could be a loss, like you said UGA could be a loss, and Bama could be a loss. On top of that you never know about upsets.
LSU could have EASILY lost 5 games last season with a MUCH MORE talented team then they will bring this year. Lost to UK, and Arkansas. Had to convert on 5 fourth downs to beat UF, beat Bama by 7 in which they were trailing in the 4th qtr, and thanks to that miracle catch you guys beat Auburn.
And you think LSU is only going to lose one game? haha, now that's funny.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Dave,
No one is "hating" on LSU. In fact, I remember cheering for them this past January.
I think it might be a little more difficult to take a first year quarterback to Auburn and Florida and expect a win at both places. Even at South Carolina will be a close game (don't "hate" on SC's very stout defense). Shoot, even at Arkansas in that final game could be a toss-up.
It's very hard to duplicate a championship season, and you are predicting that LSU will have the same amount of losses as they did last year--but instead of losing to two unranked teams, you have them only losing to a top 2 team twice, essentially giving them a better year than last year!
Just my take, but I don't see it. I doubt many other objective LSU fans would either.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"I think it might be a little more difficult to take a first year quarterback to Auburn and Florida and expect a win at both places. Even at South Carolina will be a close game (don't "hate" on SC's very stout defense)."
The only problem here is that... BOTH Auburn and South Carolina will have FIRST-YEAR starters at QB :)
"It's very hard to duplicate a championship season, and you are predicting that LSU will have the same amount of losses as they did last year--but instead of losing to two unranked teams, you have them only losing to a top 2 team twice, essentially giving them a better year than last year!
Just my take, but I don't see it. I doubt many other objective LSU fans would either."
On top of that, LSU did NOT deserve to WIN the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, last season... I mean, LSU LOST AT HOME, on SENIOR DAY, to a SUCKY Arkansas Razorbacks team :)
Heck, in my opinion... The 2007 LSU Tigers are SIMILAR to the 2005 Alabama Crimson Tide :)
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
The same article was written about Georgia. If either the Gators or Bulldogs don't win the SEC I will shocked. Coming from a bama fan.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
The Gators and Georgia both play in the East. Only one can go to the SECCG.
If Georgia goes, they will play either Auburn or LSU for the second time (and even Alabama, if they end up). Beating any one of those teams for a second time is doable, but would be hard.
Because I think GA will lose more reg season games, I think FL will represent the East in the SECCG. Again, they would either have to play an Auburn team that has had their number or LSU for the second time that year. Bama would be a wildcard.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
Yes i know they both play in the East so its almost guranteed one will be in the SEC Championship game.
UGA or UF will handle the West champs with ease in the Championship game.
Can anyone who isn't an LSU fan tell me who their QB is without looking it up.
Im baffeld that LSU and Auburn are considered the elite teams in the West with new starting QBs and Bama is tossed to the side.
Bama's one-two punch at RB will be just as productive as LSU and Auburn's tandams. Right now JPW is the best QB of the three teams. LSU lost 3/4 of their secondary, and they are still somehow a great defense, explain that to me. Auburn should do well on D and Bama is no slouch. I would say fairly certain that Bama has the best 0-line of the three too.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Can anyone who isn't an LSU fan tell me who their QB is without looking it up."
I believe that LSU's quarterback is Andrew Hatch :)
"Im baffeld that LSU and Auburn are considered the elite teams in the West with new starting QBs and Bama is tossed to the side."
Um, I think that I have made this point, like 10 or 11 times on this message thread, now... And NO one has yet to address why they are leaving out Alabama, in the SEC West race :)
"Bama's one-two punch at RB will be just as productive as LSU and Auburn's tandams. Right now JPW is the best QB of the three teams. LSU lost 3/4 of their secondary, and they are still somehow a great defense, explain that to me. Auburn should do well on D and Bama is no slouch. I would say fairly certain that Bama has the best 0-line of the three too."
This pretty much sums up why I think Alabama will win the SEC West... THIS SEASON :)
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Chris 12 months ago
This is actually more of a response prompted by Jimson's multiple comments rather than Michael's, but you both seem to be missing the same key points.
You're baffled why LSU and AU are considered the elite teams? You're baffled that Bama isn't picked ahead of them?
Here's two reasons (of many). One, JPW being a senior doesn't mean Bama should be picked to win the West. You're right that JPW is a known commodity and has experience, but what he's done in the past is exactly why they aren't picked to win the West. Experience doesn't automatically make a player great. It (generally) makes players better each year, but doesn't guarantee success. A player that's average his whole career doesn't turn into an All-American as soon as he starts his fourth year (or 12th if you're Brandon Cox).
Overall talent. The QB isn't the only one playing the game. Bama is still LIGHTYEARS behind both Auburn and LSU with regard to overall talent and depth of talent. Auburn returns a great deal at most positions other than quarterback. Bama's top two running backs are no where close to Brad Lester and Ben Tate. I know that's coming from an Auburn fan, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find someone unbiased who would agree with you.
Another key distinction in Auburn's situation is the nature of our quarterback controversy. It's not that we don't have a good quarterback, it's that we have two that are both playing really well. Neither has played better than the other to the point where there's a distinct 1 and 2. Granted both lack SEC game experience, but Todd isn't a Freshman and Kodi got some experience last season.
I'm not saying Bama can't win the West and I'm not ready to label us (or LSU) National Champs, but there are some very clear reasons why people are "forgetting" Bama. It's not an accident.
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dave jenkins 12 months ago
Michael, you are quick to bring up a few things here:
-it took 5 fourth downs to beat UF. Yes it did but it was a "W" and it showed Les Miles has a big pair.
-LSU had a come from behind victory to beat Bama...and? What are they supposed to do? Give up?
-A miracle play was the only reason they beat Auburn. Okay, miracle plays happen to great teams who play well under pressure. The Auburn secondary got burnt like toast. Do you discredit the Flutie hail mary back in the day to win a championship? or any walk-off home runs? or a three-pointer at the buzzer?
That receiver by the way, Demetrius Byrd along with Lafell are ridiculous no matter who's throwing the ball to them. Our RB, Richard Murphy is no slouch either and don't forget the little track star, Keiland Williams. They also have a stellar D year in, year out. LSU will still be good and even if it's a down year it's okay because with Russell Shephard coming up along with the rest of the recruits, they will be scary good for several years.
By the way, I AM objective. Notice I said we would lose to UGA twice, once in the reg season and again in SEC title game. Georgia is just downright nasty, I admit it.
S. Carolina??? You a comedian on the weekends?
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
You're totally missing my entire point.
I mentioned the close games against UF, Bama, and Auburn because with the loss of all the key players LSU has had those 7 points wins will turn into 7 point losses. Try to have your small mind to understand that.
LSU played close games last year with a much more talented and experienced team? Would you agree? If you don't you're a moron
Being objective is not giving a team an 11-1 record in the toughest conference in college football with a new backfield and secondary. Not to mention your best player left too.
You'll just have to see for yourself when they start playing.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
Dave, do you think this years LSU team is more talented than last years UF team?
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Justin Goar 12 months ago
arguably yes until you hit the QB position.
if perrilloux returned the answer would have been yes. other than that, they're pretty even.
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Reggie Garcia 12 months ago
Haha now I know why your one of my favorite writers on here. Great read!
nice tecmo bowl name drop
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Thanks for the read and comments, Reggie.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
Did you guys know Andrew Hatch played on the JV squad at Harvard. Ha, and you expect him to go into Auburn, and UF and beat them? Good luck with that.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
It looks like Jarrett Lee might beat him out for the job.
LSU fans, please confirm.
It seems logical to let Lee have the job now.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Okay, this is what I found:
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=3467569&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncf%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d3467569
"QUARTERBACKS
Matt Flynn started only one season, but he passed for 2,407 yards and 21 touchdowns and ran for 215 yards and four touchdowns and led LSU to a national title. Perrilloux started only one big game, but he led LSU to a victory over Tennessee in the SEC Championship and won the game's MVP award.
That leaves the Tigers with only one returning quarterback who even threw a pass in a game, and junior Andrew Hatch (6-3, 214) completed as many passes as wideout Early Doucet last year (one).
Both Miles and Crowton are convinced the situation isn't nearly as dire as it has been made to be outside the program. Between Hatch, redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee (6-2, 190) and incoming freshman Jordan Jefferson (6-4, 210), Crowton believes the Tigers will find an effective, productive
"We lost JaMarcus Russell two years ago, and now we lose Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux, so we're sort of starting over with three young guys," Crowton said. "Two of them have been in the program a little while, and the other is new to the program. I think we're in pretty good shape there. I'd feel a lot different if Perrilloux had taken all the reps in the spring.
"Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee split most of the reps in the spring, and I thought they both did a pretty good job. They both completed about 63 percent of their passes and didn't turn the ball over much. They actually had a higher percentage of completion than Matt did last spring. Both of them had about eight interceptions each in all the scrimmages and drills we did, and that's pretty close to where Matt was."
The well-traveled Hatch's story is interesting. He was MVP of Crowton's quarterback camp at BYU and signed with BYU out of high school. When Crowton was forced to resign, Hatch transferred to Harvard but never got on the field after suffering a knee injury during a two-year LDS mission in Chile. When Hatch found out Crowton was at LSU, he decided to follow him to Baton Rouge.
Lee traveled a more direct route as one of the nation's top 15 quarterbacks out of Brenham (Texas) High School, so it's no surprise to find him competing for a starting job -- even as a redshirt freshman.
"Andrew was in our [BYU] camp for two years, and I liked his competitiveness, his athletic ability, his size and strength," Crowton said. "And then Jarrett Lee was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation coming out of his senior year. "Hatch is more mobile and Lee is probably a more polished passer. Even though Hatch is a good passer, I think Lee's just got a great touch and good anticipation, so he's probably a little ahead in that battle.
"They're both very competitive, they have great work ethics and they have good skills. I feel like we're grooming up another good quarterback. I just don't know which one it will be."
Miles and Crowton have both gone out of their way to include Jefferson in any discussions regarding the future of the quarterback position. From Destrehan High School in St. Rose, La., Jefferson was first-team Class 5A All-State and the 5A Offensive Player of the Year in Louisiana in 2007, when he threw for 2,846 yards, 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
"Jordan Jefferson is very talented, big and fast, a cannon for an arm," Crowton said. "He'll come in and we'll try to get him going as fast as we can so we can see what he can do." "
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Jeff Allen 12 months ago
What is your insider account login information? I cannot access this article.
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Justin Goar 12 months ago
by most accounts hatch will start. jarrett lee will get time but right now, he's just not comfortable.
LSU fans need to remember they had TWO good qb's last year in flynn and perrilloux. without perrilloux, we probably would've lost the SEC cg and the season would have been deemed a failure.
the schedule is brutal and you need depth to go through it unscathed or with one loss.
depth that the tigers don't have right now.
with jordan jefferson, lee, and hatch all getting experience and russell shepard in the mix in 09 the qb situation is looking up. but this is just a down year at QB. it wouldn't have been had perrilloux not been so stupid.
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Paul Augustin, Jr. 12 months ago
@ Tim
I have to agree with Justin. I heard a report on a lafayette sports radio show today that Hatch is looking better than Lee in practice.
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Will Thrasher 12 months ago
nice thoughts Tim. As an Auburn guy loved your number five reason, but reason 1 has to be the Georgia Bulldogs. Gotta love their outlook for 08
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
But you also have to keep in mind, that it IF Tim had Georgia as his #1 reason... then he would have CONTRADICTED what he wrote, in last week's article "Five Reasons Georgia Won't Win the National Championship - or the SEC" :)
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G8R 8U2 12 months ago
This is why I hate amateur "authors" or "journalists. Most are just too lazy to do their homework. Florida's rush defense was the best in the entire conference last year. http://www.secsports.com/new/sports/fbc/07stats/confldrs.htm The only thing that needed shoring up was the pass defense. The year of experience, plus the best DB class in the nation last year to add depth, is all the Gators are going to need. As it is, they lost their 4 games last year by 3 points to #15 Auburn, 4 points to the National Champions, 6 points to a revitalized #18 Michigan, and 12 points to #2 UGA. Yeah, with even a marginally better pass defense, UF could turn those close losses into wins, and go undefeated.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
Something tells me part of the reason the rush defense was statistically so good was the fact that the pass defense was so bad teams didn't feel as big a need to rush on them.
Only two teams in the conference defended fewer rushes per game, and only one team in the conference defended more passes per game. In terms of rush/pass mix, Florida was the only team in the conference to have its opponents' pass more often (51%) than they rushed (49%).
South Carolina was the exact opposite. While Florida was first in rush defense and last in pass defense, South Carolina was first in pass defense and last in rush defense. You're fooling yourself if you think those last place finishes in one didn't influence the first place finishes in the other.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Gator Ate You Too (can't believe I just wrote that):
As David pointed out, and what has already been discussed in these comments, why would people bother running against FL when they could pass successfully all game long?
Your name would suggest you are a Gator fan, but it seems hard to believe you watched the Gators play much this past season. Their front line was embarrassing.
As for your rankings, they are wrong. When Florida played Auburn, the Tigers were 3-2 with no momentum and unranked, and the Gators were ranked #4. Georgia was 18, and Florida was 11 when they played each other. Michigan was also unranked when the Gators played them, and FL was ranked #12. LSU was the only game Florida was the true underdog, as LSU was 1 and Florida 9.
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Quantumt 12 months ago
nice article Tim, but i sure hope the Gators will prove you wrong in the fall. With Tebow & company and the improvement of our defense, this team is just too good to not make it to the SEC championship and beyond.
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James Doker 12 months ago
I enjoyed the article, and I'm impressed by the ridiculous number of comments on it. Apparently a lot of SEC fans have an opinion on this matter.
The points are valid, but not insurmountable. I'd love to read more articles about why various other teams won't win the national championship or their conference. Every contender has flaws, so we'll see who fixes theirs in 2008.
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Burton DeWitt 12 months ago
Oddly, I agree with you on this article, yet I find it a lesser quality than the Georgia one, which I completely disagreed with but thought well written.
You clearly don't understand the problems with the Florida defense. The team was completely miscoached. The lack of a pass rush was not because the team couldn't rush the QB but because it chose not to. In the Michigan game, Florida brought more than two guys a grand total of one time. Against Kentucky, Florida I don't believe blitzed after the middle of the second quarter, although it's possible the Gators did once and I just cannot recall it.
The safeties were truly horrendous. I suspected they were mismanaged, but seeing it in person at the Tangerine Bowl it was apparent. There were plays in which the safeties did not move. I'm not kidding. I watched them the entire play and they combined to take eight steps. The play itself took ten seconds (screen pass).
Finally, the team just didn't know how to tackle. They'd get to the man, but they wouldn't tackle him. The run defense was fine, but they couldn't wrap anyone up.
2. "But clearly the Gators did not have the late game execution they wanted in their three closest losses of last season—and it all starts with Tebow."
This statement is idiotic. Florida came back in the fourth quarter in one of the games you mentioned from 17 points down (Auburn) only for Auburn to drive and kick a winning field goal as time expired.
Florida also drove down the field with 4:30 to go against Michigan, only for Michigan to come right back. Tebow then led two unsuccessful drives. I'll grant you this.
I cannot defend the LSU game. Florida's offense went on shut down at the same time that Charlie Strong decided to hand LSU the game.
How the hell did Tebow cost Florida the Auburn game down the stretch? Did you actually watch the game or are you making stuff up? Seriously, that argument is lacking.
4. I don't think that Meyer is a great coach, but you are entitlted to your opinion. I'm just going to cordially disagree by pointing out that Meyer has never coached a team completely of his players and has benefited by taking over loaded teams for the past 7 years. He has also played down to his opponents a lot more (at least 12 times) than he has seen his team lift its game (Tennessee and LSU last year, Ohio State the year before, Georgia the one before that).
5. "In 2006, the Tigers won a once-in-a-lifetime type game, scoring 27 points without scoring an offensive touchdown. Despite being outgained and outplayed, Auburn came up with a crucial blocked punt in the third quarter, and the game was changed forever."
No, Auburn outgained Florida 315-279.
No, Auburn outplayed Florida.
Florida held Auburn to three short first half field goals due to poor playcalling by Tuberville. Auburn could easily have had 12 more points at the half.
Auburn also had one crucial turnover when the Tigers were about to score, fumbling the ball at the 3-yard line.
Auburn outplayed Florida for the entire game and should have won by more. Had Florida won, the lesser team that day would have won. Watch the game again and you'll see just how absolutely destroyed Florida was.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Burton,
I'll just say this is probably the last time I'll respond to one of your comments. Let me try to address a few issues while I'm here:
First of all, you are awesome. Apparently, you could write a better article, coach the Gator defense better than the current coaches, tackle better than the players, and although you attend Rice, you have watched every single Gator game and broken down tape. You should send Urban Meyer your resume. Wait, you don't think he's good. Make that Jeremy Foley. (He's the AD, by the way.)
Moving on, they stopped calling it the Tangerine Bowl in 1983.
While I never said Tebow was to blame for not bringing the Gators back against Auburn last year, here was the situation: The Gators had the ball at their 42 (extremely good field position) with right under 5 minutes left and the score tied at 17. Three plays and negative 6 yards later, they had to punt it away. I don't know about you, but that doesn't seem like good "late game execution."
Finally, in 2006, yes, Florida was outgained--because Auburn owned the clock and only allowed the Gators to run 45 total plays. In fact, the Gators averaged 6.2 yards per play to Auburn's 4.7. Two costly fumbles stunted two Gator drives and took away opportunities to score. Auburn gobbled up the clock on offense, owning 37 minutes while the Gators only had the ball for 23 minutes. The Gators only punted three times the whole game.
And one just for fun: So you can have good rush defense but not know how to wrap up? How exactly is that possible? Don't those two sort of go hand in hand?
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Danny Penza 12 months ago
Wow. A guy from South Carolina saying Florida and Georgia won't win. Shocking.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Actually, Daniel, I think GA and FL will win a ton of games between them. I'm saying they won't win the SEC Championship. Neither did last year, but I assume you know that. Your bio suggests that SEC football is definitely a big deal to you.
I'd love to hear your breakdown of the SEC East race, though.
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Nick The Only 12 months ago
I don't know why you're telling me to check box scores. I was at every Florida game you have referred to. Florida's offense and defense will both be significantly better this year. Auburn has an unproven QB and has barely eeked out wins when Florida plays sloppy. This is a year where Florida runs Auburn out of the swamp.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Auburn has an unproven QB and has barely eeked out wins when Florida plays sloppy. This is a year where Florida runs Auburn out of the swamp."
I couldn't agree more with your comment :)
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Nick, the Gators don't even play Auburn in the Swamp. Auburn isn't even on the schedule.
I say check the box scores because your memory is not serving you correctly.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
"Nick, the Gators don't even play Auburn in the Swamp. Auburn isn't even on the schedule."
Oh yeah, that's right... the Gators played Auburn in the Swamp, last season, lol :)
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
THis guy burtion does sound like he's a no it all.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
Burton wrote: "I don't think that Meyer is a great coach."
Urban Meyer is 31-8 at Florida with a National Championship and a SEC Championship.
The year before that he went 12-0 with Utah and beat Pitt in that BCS Bowl.
So over the last 4 years he's 43-8 with a NC, SEC Championship, and has an undefeated season.
Call me crazy but I'll take that for my favorite team any day.
Regarding the fact that he took over for other coaches and inherited their players really isn't a great point. Ron Zook couldn't win with the same talent that Meyer won with.
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Stephen Baugh 12 months ago
Jimson, this article has nothing to do with Alabama so will you please stop commenting on it. Everybody knows JP Wilson is a mediocre pretty boy quarterback that will not take bama anywhere. I'm sure your glad you don't play La- Monroe again this year
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
If JPW is mediocore i hate to hear what you have to say about Brandon Cox.
Cody burns isn't a sure thing either.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Let's just say that Brandon Cox SUCKED SO BAD, in BOTH 2006 and 2007... However, I must admit that Cox played VERY WELL, in 2005 :)
And yes, I agree that Kodi Burns is NOT a sure thing either, lol :)
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Quenton Mosley 12 months ago
Warrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Eagle!!!!!! Great article.
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john brewer 12 months ago
does 45-20 ring a bell?
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G8R 8U2 12 months ago
David and Tim,
Sorry, but those explanations about teams not needing to run much just don't fly. They would have to know before the season stats were even out that that was going to be the case. They would have to have known what we only learned at the conclusion of the season. When we played most of those teams, they weren't aware at that time that our pass defense was going to be that porous. That just doesn't make any sense. Maybe by the UGA game, teams were starting to get some indication that the secondary was vulnerable; but certainly not in the games preceeding it, because we had kept pretty much everyone in check until that point. The losses didn't even let on about our pass defense. AU only threw for 227 of their 326 total yards. LSU only threw for 144 of their 391 total. Hardly seems like they knew about any great pass coverage deficiency.
As for Tebow, and his 2:00 drill efficiency, the writer is either flat out wrong or lying about Tebow having opportunities to come back and win the game in those close losses. Of UF's 4 losses, he only had 1 chance to run a 2:00 offense to win the game.
In the Auburn game, AU held the ball for the last 3:38 of the game, and kicked the winning field goal with no time left.
In the LSU game, he got the ball at the UF 20 with 1:09 left to play. He moved the ball to the LSU 45 before time ran out.
In the UGA game, he was already down by 12, and had no chance to make a 2:00 game winning drive.
The Michigan game has been his one and only chance at the 2:00 drill for the win. UF started their last drive at their own 23 with 2:21 to play, and Tebow threw 4 straight incomplete passes. So, he's 0-1... not nearly as bad as some would make it out to be.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
By "two minute offense," he meant a hurry-up style offense at end of a game to potentially win it. No, the opportunities weren't with precisely 2:00 to go, but they were late-game pressure situations where Florida didn't have the lead.
Try not to be so defensive. It's okay to criticize Tim Tebow. He's a great player, but he's not perfect and the hurry-up offense is definitely something he had to work on this off season.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Gator Ate You Too,
I'm just going to allow David's comments to address what don't seem to understand about a hurry up offense.
About teams running and passing on us, I can't continue this argument. You are probably the only human who thinks the Gators had a stout defense against the run. See Seth Adams.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
Not sure what you mean by that, since Seth Adams had 4 rushes for 4 yards against Florida last season.
Look, Florida was pretty good against the run thanks to great DE and LB play. There was no push at tackle though, so that kept it from being an exceptional rush defense. They still had 88 tackles for loss, lead by Derrick Harvey (17), Brandon Spikes (16), and Jermaine Cunningham (12)*. The DT starters? Clint McMillan had 1.5 in 13 games, and Javier Estopinan had 3 in 8 games played.
UF still allowed the lowest yards per carry of any SEC team, so it's not like they were terrible. It's just that no one but LSU and Georgia fully committed to the run against them, and in those games the Gators allowed 4.8 and 4.5 yards per carry, well above the season average of 3.0 yards per carry. Overall? Inconclusive.
*Source: http://www.gatorzone.com/football/stats/game.pdf
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
David,
I understand. I do. After the dominant play from the 2006 DTs, it was just unusual to see the Gators get pushed around.
The reference to Seth Adams was on the other side--like you said, few teams actually committed to the run. Despite being a terribly average quarterback, he lit up the Gators for his best game of the year--and a near upset.
Is Estopinan on his 9th knee surgery?
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Burke Chester 12 months ago
The Gators had the youngest team last year that I can remember, and I've followed them for more than half a century.
No one has ever recruited 3 classes in a row at UF like Meyer's last 3. And he will keep on doing it.
The Gators are still young, but they are no longer inexperienced because they played so many of those young guys last year.
Spurrier was just a prelude. Had he been worth a crap as a recruiter, UF would have been a dynasty under him.
Under Meyer, it will be.
The only question is whether it will begin this year or next.
Probably, it will be this year.
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Nicholas Hall 12 months ago
Auburn having won two in a row over UF does not constitute "Daddy staus". I think it merits mention that the two teams have played 6 times this decade and are tied 3-3.
2000 UF 38, AU 7
2000 UF 28, AU 6 (SEC Championship game)
2001 AU 23, UF 20
2002 UF 30, AU 23
2006 AU 27, UF 17
2007 AU 20, UF 17
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Ben White 12 months ago
Riddle me this Nicholas, how many of those games were coached by current Florida Gator head coach Urban Meyer?
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Ben beat me to it. Well played.
Nicholas, Auburn gave FL their only loss of the 2006 season and prevented them from winning the East last year.
As Ben pointed out, Urban has yet to solve Auburn's defense.
Auburn has completely dictated the way the game has been played the last two years.
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David Wunderlich 12 months ago
And now Auburn's DC has left. Tim, you were the one who brought up 2001, so Nicholas' list is fair game.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Oh snap!
"Boom MFers!"
Touche, David.
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Michael Inglis 12 months ago
Good point Nick. And UF won the most important game between the two, the SEC Championship.
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Tony Asci 12 months ago
I guess I'm an arrogant, stubborn fan, because no one can convince me that the "bubble screen to Percy, then Tim runs it up the gut" game plan can continue to roll without anyone stopping it.
Every defensive coordinator in the nation has watched this for 2 years now, and I just don't see Tebow being as successful as he was last year.
Pair that with the fact that, like so many others have noted, the Gator D is woeful.
I'm so excited that, for the first time in 20+ years, there will be a REAL Governor's Cup in the state of FL, as all three big schools play each other. The Gators finally got over their fear of Miami, and decided to play them in a regular season game. Can't wait to see who comes out on top -- UF (the team with no D), FSU (the team with no O) or Miami (the team with no clue how to win)...
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Tony,
I'm going out on a limb here and saying Florida will own both Miami and FSU this season. Your last sentence makes it look like the Big 3 (even though USF is better than FSU and Miami) are all struggling.
Your comments about the Gator offense seem pretty absurd to me. The FSU defense looked silly trying to stop Tebow and Company last year, and nothing will be different this year. How exactly are DC's going to start game-planning differently?
I love when FSU fans try to say something about Florida's schedule...
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Max Fischer 12 months ago
The thing you have to rememebr is that Tebow did what he did without a runningback to run up the middle. Tebow did what he did without any runningback period. And he still won the Heisman.. As sophomore!
People might not believe it.. but the Gators are going to have a much more well balanced offense this season. And because of this Tebow will be far better than he was last season. His efficiency will skyrocket and the wear and tear on his body will go down dramatically.
Also, instead of having to use Tebow to carry the team all game.. Meyer can use Tebow's running ability more like he did in Tebow's first season as a Gator. Meyer can use Tebow in key situations to win games - clutch situations and big games. This will make the Gators offense unbeatable. And if they have just a defense on top of that offense the Gators will steamroll college football.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
I hear you, Max.
But now we get news of two Gator DB's out for the year. An already young and thin DB crew just got younger and even thinner.
It will be interesting to see how the Gators respond...
Like you said, the offense should be sick.
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Mark Rupert 12 months ago
Reason #6
The rest of the SEC and even Michigan has figured out Meyer's offensive scheme, The Gator's will have the same play makers, Tebow,Harvin=80% of the offensive scheme and the transfer from USC must not be all that or he'd be the starting tail back for the Trojans.
Reason #7. UGA's offence and defence.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Mark,
To say Florida's offensive scheme has been figured out by every team seems a tad on the crazy side. Florida will once again have the best offense in the SEC next year. If Tebow and Harvin are 80% of the offense next year, FL will be disappointing. But you might want to check out some of the Gators' new players. I have a feeling you will see them putting up big numbers.
Emmanuel Moody was the starting tailback at USC but injuries limited the games he played. He was still The Sporting News Pac-10 Offensive Freshman of the Year.
Be careful with the GA talk. You know the history of the rivalry, and to pretend a planned dance in the endzone "ended the curse" might be premature.
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Pierce Wilford 12 months ago
i would give you a high five for such an awesome article untill i saw you said it'd be florida and auburn in the SEC title, which won't happen.
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Jimson Cuenta 12 months ago
Actually, I think that it will be Florida and Alabama, in the SEC Championship Game, lol :)
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Frank Therber 12 months ago
I think that your observations are very accuarte and insightful, but you are putting too much empahsis on Florida's recent past in relation to the upcoming year. The Florida offense will be quite formidable, especially with Chris Rainey lining up opposite of Percy Harvin. Rainey was undoubtedly the MVP of their spring game, and can also lineup in the backfield. Versatility in the SEC is rare, but when found, unstoppable. So, if you want to bring up the past, I will say Tim Tebow, who played a huge roll in that 2006 title.
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Thanks for the comment, Frank.
I agree that FL's offense will be nearly unstoppable. But, I'm not sure if you've seen the news that they just lost two defensive backs who were upperclassmen to ACL injuries. That's a tough break for a young defense. In tight games, I'm not sure the defense will be able to come up with the big stop, like the 2006 team could.
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Frank Therber 12 months ago
I can see where you are coming from, and that is quite possible. However, it is especially true in college football that anyone beat anyone on any given Saturday, and the last year's statistics can only be used to a certain extent. I think you have some good thoughts. By the way, I am a new writer, so I was wondering if you might be able to tell me how to make my articles more known and appear on the CFL front page. Thanks.
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john brewer 12 months ago
you forgot the 6th reason. rennie curren
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Tim Pollock 12 months ago
Are you predicting a Curran-Tebow collision...
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Hank Poteat 11 months ago
good read, timmy. how the SEC will shake out:
EAST
Florida
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vandy
WEST
Alabama
LSU
Auburn
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Miss State
UF over 'Bama
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