Well, that didn't take long.
Despite the patently transparent protestations of Cubs general manager Jim Hendry that he would not ramp up his efforts after the big CC Sabathia deal, the Chicago Nationals have acquired their own pitcher for the stretch drive, getting Rich Harden from the Oakland A's in a 6-man swap.
Despite the patently transparent protestations of Cubs general manager Jim Hendry that he would not ramp up his efforts after the big CC Sabathia deal, the Chicago Nationals have acquired their own pitcher for the stretch drive, getting Rich Harden from the Oakland A's in a 6-man swap.
The Cubs get RHPs Harden and Chad Gaudin in exchange for RHP Sean Gallagher, OFs Matt Murton and Eric Patterson, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson. (It's being incorrectly reported as John Donaldson in some places, which would really be a bad deal for the Athletics, since John Donaldson is either 65 years old, or dead, depending on which one you're talking about.)
Of course, some parties didn't think this could happen, and if Oakland had waited for the kind of package the Tribe got in return for Sabathia, it never would have. But in the end A's GM Billy Beane settled for less than anyone thought it would take to pry Harden away from him.
Make no mistake, though. If we've learned anything about Billy Beane in the last ten years or so, it's that the man is no fool. He got the best deal he thought he could get for Harden, or he wouldn't have traded him. Actually, for Harden and Gaudin.
Rich Harden has talent coming out of his ears. Maybe you remember him coming to the majors in 2003, a fresh-faced 21-year old with a sizzling fastball, a hard curve, a nasty slider...and, it would eventually turn out, a penchant for getting hurt. He struck out ten Devil Rays as a rookie, won 11 games as a sophomore, and looked every bit like the Next Big Thing in Oakland, following in the footsteps of Hudson, Zito and Mulder (not to mention Dave Stewart, Vida Blue, and Catfish), but alas, 'twas not to be.
Of course, some parties didn't think this could happen, and if Oakland had waited for the kind of package the Tribe got in return for Sabathia, it never would have. But in the end A's GM Billy Beane settled for less than anyone thought it would take to pry Harden away from him.
Make no mistake, though. If we've learned anything about Billy Beane in the last ten years or so, it's that the man is no fool. He got the best deal he thought he could get for Harden, or he wouldn't have traded him. Actually, for Harden and Gaudin.
Rich Harden has talent coming out of his ears. Maybe you remember him coming to the majors in 2003, a fresh-faced 21-year old with a sizzling fastball, a hard curve, a nasty slider...and, it would eventually turn out, a penchant for getting hurt. He struck out ten Devil Rays as a rookie, won 11 games as a sophomore, and looked every bit like the Next Big Thing in Oakland, following in the footsteps of Hudson, Zito and Mulder (not to mention Dave Stewart, Vida Blue, and Catfish), but alas, 'twas not to be.
Harden simply could not stay on the mound, and the Oaklands really weren't even counting on him to come back this year, mostly just hoping he'd be healthy enough to trade by the deadline. Who knew they'd be within striking distance of the division lead by the All-Star break?
A foolish GM would think that Harden has suddenly discovered some magical ability to stay healthy, some Fountain of Youth -or at least Health- to which he'd never before had access. Billy Beane is not a foolish GM, so he can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.
A foolish GM would think that Harden has suddenly discovered some magical ability to stay healthy, some Fountain of Youth -or at least Health- to which he'd never before had access. Billy Beane is not a foolish GM, so he can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.
Jim Hendry may not be a foolish GM either, just one who happens to be holding on to a tenuous grasp of first place with a club desperate for a World Series win, which the Cubs have not had in (all together now...) 100 years.
So he looked to trade Harden while the young righty still had some value. And while he was at it, he got rid of Chad Gaudin, a young, short righty who's A) playing over his head and 2) been in the majors for parts of six seasons and is therefore about to become expensive.
For his trouble, Beane got the following:
Josh Donaldson: A 22-year old Single-A catcher who hit .346/.470/.605 last year in 49 games in Boise. (He was 0-for-2 with two walks as a DH in the game I saw there last summer.)
So he looked to trade Harden while the young righty still had some value. And while he was at it, he got rid of Chad Gaudin, a young, short righty who's A) playing over his head and 2) been in the majors for parts of six seasons and is therefore about to become expensive.
For his trouble, Beane got the following:
Josh Donaldson: A 22-year old Single-A catcher who hit .346/.470/.605 last year in 49 games in Boise. (He was 0-for-2 with two walks as a DH in the game I saw there last summer.)
Nobody seems to think he's injured or anything, so he should eventually get out of the slump he's currently struggling through (hitting only .217 through 63 games this season) and become the top catching prospect the Cubs thought he would be when they drafted him in the supplemental phase of the first round last season.
Matt Murton: A 26-year old right-handed hitting outfielder with a decent batting eye, who has not yet displayed much power or speed. On a bad team, he might be a starter in centerfield. On a good team, he's a 4th outfielder who can pinch hit because he won't go up there swinging for the fences.
Matt Murton: A 26-year old right-handed hitting outfielder with a decent batting eye, who has not yet displayed much power or speed. On a bad team, he might be a starter in centerfield. On a good team, he's a 4th outfielder who can pinch hit because he won't go up there swinging for the fences.
On the Cubs, with Soriano and Fukudome on the corners and Reed Johnson playing center, he's taking up a roster spot. Baseball Prospectus 2008 called him "a good bet to be traded".
Eric Patterson: Younger brother of Corey, he's a 25-year old outfielder/secondbaseman who has bounced back and forth between Chicago and AAA Iowa this year, where he's hit .320/.358/.517. He's only hit .237 in the majors, which is why he hasn't stuck, but then if you only played once a week or so, you'd be rusty too.
Eric Patterson: Younger brother of Corey, he's a 25-year old outfielder/secondbaseman who has bounced back and forth between Chicago and AAA Iowa this year, where he's hit .320/.358/.517. He's only hit .237 in the majors, which is why he hasn't stuck, but then if you only played once a week or so, you'd be rusty too.
In the minors, he hit for average, took walks, stole bases effectively and even hit a few homers. If the Oaklands (currently playing .247-hitting Mark Ellis at the keystone) decide to give him a chance at the second base job, he could be pretty useful for a few years.
Sean Gallagher: The real jewel of the trade, 22-year old Gallagher is a big righty (6'2", 225-235, depending on your source) who's dominated the minor leagues. Over parts of five seasons, he's gone 27-12 with 482 strikeouts and a 2.71 ERA in 481 innings. He's walked only about 3.5 per nine innings and has allowed an obscenely low 0.49 homers per nine frames.
The numbers are all there, but the scouts don't love him, or haven't, because he didn't have a great fastball and they at least used to think he was a little overweight. One report on MLB.com indicated that he lost 30 pounds this spring, or presumably, coming into the spring, and when you see him now, he looks like he's in fine shape, probably not more than about 205.
Sean Gallagher: The real jewel of the trade, 22-year old Gallagher is a big righty (6'2", 225-235, depending on your source) who's dominated the minor leagues. Over parts of five seasons, he's gone 27-12 with 482 strikeouts and a 2.71 ERA in 481 innings. He's walked only about 3.5 per nine innings and has allowed an obscenely low 0.49 homers per nine frames.
The numbers are all there, but the scouts don't love him, or haven't, because he didn't have a great fastball and they at least used to think he was a little overweight. One report on MLB.com indicated that he lost 30 pounds this spring, or presumably, coming into the spring, and when you see him now, he looks like he's in fine shape, probably not more than about 205.
More important, his fastball now clocks in at 92-93 mph and can hit 95 on occasion. He still has the sharp, 12-to-6 curve, plus a slider and change he can throw for strikes. What he has not yet shown in the majors is stamina, as he's averaged just 5.4 innings per start this season. That should come with time, though, and moving from the Friendly Confines to McCavernous Coliseum should only help his progress into a very good starting pitcher.
In total, the Cubs got two pitchers who can help them get to - and maybe even win - the playoffs this year, but who will be expensive to retain, too expensive for a club with Oakland's modest budget.
The Oaklands got a starting pitcher they can plug in right now, to go along with Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and Joe Blanton. The names may not be all that familiar to you, but the four of them have combined for a 3.48 ERA in 434 innings this year, and Blanton, at least, hasn't even pitched up to his capabilities yet.
In total, the Cubs got two pitchers who can help them get to - and maybe even win - the playoffs this year, but who will be expensive to retain, too expensive for a club with Oakland's modest budget.
The Oaklands got a starting pitcher they can plug in right now, to go along with Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and Joe Blanton. The names may not be all that familiar to you, but the four of them have combined for a 3.48 ERA in 434 innings this year, and Blanton, at least, hasn't even pitched up to his capabilities yet.
They got a useful third or fourth outfielder, a potential starting secondbaseman and a minor league catcher who has shown the ability to hit like Mike Piazza, at least for a little while in the low minors.
In time, when Harden is either hurt or playing for another team, and oakland is still reaping the benefits of one or more of their acquisitions, I don't think A's fans will still be complaining.
In time, when Harden is either hurt or playing for another team, and oakland is still reaping the benefits of one or more of their acquisitions, I don't think A's fans will still be complaining.
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3 months ago
Good analysis Travis. Some observations: Murton would be a nightmaer in center. The challenge is he doesn't have the power for the corners, yet doesn't have the speed or instincts to play center even reasonably well.
The Cubs never really gave Patterson a chance. Something about his coming late to ballgames or something seemed to always have him in the doghouse. But he has good speed. At worst, he's a good utiliy man.
I watch every game, and I haven't seen the fastball on Gallagher that yuo claim he has. From what I've seen, he tops out at 90/91. Regardless, he has to be considered the centerpiece of the deal for Oakland.
Billy Beane is a smart GM, probably smarter than Jim Hendry. Smart enough to realize that Hendry was desperate. I'd like to be happy with this trade, but there's nothing in his past to suggest Harden will ever stay healthy.
from 3 months ago
If you can't be happy with this trade you're hopeless. Hendry pantsed Beane in this deal, he was nothing like desperate or he never would have got Chad Gaudin for nothing. If Harden starts only one game for the Cubs they still come out on top because they gave up NOTHING.
3 months ago
Yeah, the comment about Murton in CF was only that a bad team might look at his modest speed, decent patience and lack of power and think of him as a CF type. No real argument with you here, just a clarification.
I just watched the archived footage of Gallagher's last start, in SF, on MLB.tv, and he was hitting 95-96 consistently in the first inning according to the TV gun, which is calibrated for a few mph above normal.
MLB's Gameday archives show the speed and trajectory of each pitch, which is where I got the 92-93, sometimes 95 from.
3 months ago
Another sore arm for the Cubbies! The tradition ( Ernie Broglio etc.) continues.
3 months ago
Well, I'm nervous about the trade and am starting to get tired of the "In Billy We Trust" aspect of being an Oakland A's fan. Nevertheless, I hope it works out for the A's. Not that I want Richie to get injured, but at least a little hammy tweak will make me feel better about this trade. Either that, or if Gallagher starts mowing people down on the mound, then I'll be a happy guy. We Oakland fans have grown accustomed to excellent pitching, so Gallagher better not disappoint!
3 months ago
Travis, don't blow smoke up my ass and ask me to feel the romance as the San Francisco Bay fog rolls in. This deal made sense right up until Billy Beane let the Cubs STEAL Chad Gaudin.
John, Josh, Jimmy "Blue balls" Donaldson, whoever, is chum. The only reason Beane didn't ask for a signed Harry Carey portrait instead of Donaldson is because he's already got one.
Matt Murton, who in addition to what you said also can't hit with RISP and is average at best in the field, a liability most of the time. Only value at the ML level is as trade bait and can't be considered a 'prospect' much longer. He'd have to be better than Jack Cust to be a useful 4 outfielder in Oakland.
Eric Patterson, younger brother of Corey...Are you kidding me? Let me tell you everything about Mark Ellis you don't know. He's the best 2nd baseman never to make an All-Star Game. He has the best single season fielding percentage in history. He's the A's most clutch hitter. His .247 avg is still above the team's dismal .242. He's a free agent at the end of this year and if Billy Beane lets him walk without a fight then Billy Beane won't be able to leave his house. What's Corey's younger brother ever going to do about that?
Sean Gallagher, agreed the only one with ANY value for the A's in this package. You go ahead and plug him into your rotisserie starting lineup, Gio Gonzalez is coming up to take Harden's spot in the A's rotation. Gallagher can take Gio's place in Sacto. Nice centerpiece.
Harden is signed through next year for $7 million, a bargain if he makes 10 more starts this year and 20 more next year. Chad Gaudin is arbitration eligible for the next 3 years. You have absolutely no idea what you're getting in Chad Gaudin, but lucky for you Lou P. does and that's what matters.
Leave Joe Blanton alone, he's been pitching up to all the ability he has. Blanton is a #3 innings eater who gets no run support, asked to be a #1. On a hitting team as good as the Cubs Blanton would be a monster. Chad Gaudin is Joe Blanton Lite and may end up being the centerpiece of this trade after all.
You're welcome for the better deal than the Brewers got.
from 3 months ago
I like Gaudin but you seem to be over the top on him and as someone who knows better than I, I hope you're right. His numbers are OK, though he walks too many and doesn't strike out very many. One year he walked more than he struck out! But one thing you fail to realize here is you say if Harden makes one start we're ahead on this deal because you got NOTHING. Look, if Harden gets hurt, as he ALWAYS does, and Gallagher goes on to pitch even league average for a number of years, how are the Cubs ahead? No one would give up 4 players for Gaudin. And Gaudin will be a reliver for the cubs, not a starter. No, the only way this trade makes sense for the Cubbies is if Harden pitches and nothing in his history suggests he will be able to.
from 3 months ago
Look Bob, after the whole Mark Prior thing I can understand how Cubs fans are skittish with fragile arms. What you don't understand is that right now, in Rich Harden, you've got a functional Mark Prior back with a solid Chad Gaudin middle relief/#5 insurance policy for Sean Gallagher and a bunch of nothing. Yes its probable Harden will miss 3-4 starts between now and the end of the season. But its equally probable you're going to get 8-10 starts from him and he will outduel the other team's #2 starter for as long as he's in the game. In Gaudin you've got a guy who can fill a rotation spot if Harden goes down, step in middle relief after Harden's hit his 100 pitches or replace Marquis if/when he flames out. Gaudin is streaky, and if he gets going in the second half you'd happily trade these four for him. At the end of the first half last year Gaudin was 7-3 with a 2.92 ERA. He hung in there with Jake Peavy and Dan Haren with sub 2.00 ERAs for nearly three months. Losing Gaudin is a big blow to our bullpen and Gallagher outside of another trade gives us nothing to replace him with.
from 3 months ago
Listen, Greg. You don't know me. Feel free to tell me you think I'm wrong, but I've no reason to lie to you. I am neither a Cubs fan nor an A's fan, so I gain nothing on this trade either way. I'm just trying to be an optimist and see what Billy beane might have had in mind as he did this, giving him credit for being smart, as he's demonstrated on occasion.
I just think that Beane traded Harden while his value was high (i.e. he looked healthy for the first time in three years) and had to throw in something else of value to make the risk worthwhile for the Cubs' sake. They didn't get a sure-fire, top-flight prospect in return, but nobody EVER does when they're trading a guy with Harden's spotty track record for health.
Gaudin allows 5 earned runs per game when he doesn't have the Coliseum backing him up, and he's not as much of a ground ball pitcher as he was last year, so going to Wrigley could doubly hurt him. Heck, even without that, going from a place with a park factor of 89 to a place with a park factor of 107 should be enough to tack a full run onto his ERA. If Beane expects Harden to break down again, and soon, then he at least got something for him before he became worthless again, and Gaudin, while not a "throw-in" was not such a high price to pay to make Harden's health someone else's problem.
And as for Ellis...fielding percentage? C'mon, man, get outta the nineties. I'll give you that he's a good defensive secondbaseman, but don't quote me fielding percentage. ..."most clutch hitter"? ..."best 2nd baseman never to make an All-Star Game"? Don't tell me: He always hits the ball hard, he just hits it right at the defenders, right? He's a good guy in the clubhouse, right?
1) He's hitting .263 with RISP this year. That's slightly worse than Daric Barton, and much worse than Kurt Suzuki, Emil Brown, Carlos Gonzalez and both of the Sweeny's, among those with at least 20 ABs with RISP.
B) He's going to be a 32-year old free agent next year, and will expect to make more than the $5 million he's making now. Billy Beane does not pay that kind of money to players entering the decline-phase of their careers.
Patterson, meanwhile, is young and cheap, and has some upside. He and his brother are very different sorts of players, but the Cubs could never get past that association. If they A's give him a shot, well, he might not stick at second base, but he might hit enough to carry an OF corner.
And Gallagher, I expect, will be staring in Oakland, not Sacramento. Gio Gonzalez? He's got talent, and has been on a tear of late, but has been inconsistent this year, and I expect they'll give him a little more seasoning, at least until they trade Blanton.
Donaldson is the definition of a "throw-in" a guy who's had some success in the past but whose trade value is down due to an off year. The A's have some good instructors in their system, so if there's a way to figure him out, they should be able to do it.
3 months ago
The Cubs were just scared after the CC deal in Milwaukee. I overheard that they were seeking the rights from the Dodgers for Sandy Koufax. With the 100 year itch lasting til mid season again this year they had to scratch it.
3 months ago
Interesting stats, but I don't see how they DIDN'T get cheated. Harden and Gaudin are unreal.
3 months ago
I appreciate you trying to be optimistic, as it goes against the grain, baseball being a "negative" game right? I've been an A's fan for a LONG time and have watched Beane make LOTS of moves, some that make him look smart and others not so much. Let's just say I don't drink Beane Kool-Aid.
That Beane was going to trade Harden this year was, as I said in an article I wrote, inevitable. That Harden came back after riding the DL almost all April made trading him now a no-brainer. Nobody in Oakland expected to get a top-flight prospect for Harden alone. The problem I have with this trade, and your take on it, is that you and Beane don't account for Gaudin's value to the A's.
For including Gaudin the A's had to get more. There is nobody on the A's staff other than Justin Duchsherer who fills Gaudin's role. Gallagher, for now, is taking Harden's spot in the rotation, but as everybody points out, Harden's as likely as not to make his next start, whatever team he plays on. So without making this deal, who's likely to take that spot for the A's? Gaudin. And what if Gallagher goes down or doesn't produce? Well now its Gio Gonzalez, ready or not, and we're still within 5 games of Anaheim. There was never any real imperative for unloading Harden that justifies giving Gaudin away in the deal.
Murton doesn't make up for it either. Yeah, he had a great rookie year. So did Travis Buck, who has sucked this year. We've already got Travis Buck and two Travis Bucks don't help our pitching staff.
As for Mark Ellis...sorry I'm not down with the New School stats jive, but Ellis' defense is unmatched in the AL, every bit Eric Chavez' equal, yet no Gold Gloves. And it would take an A's fan to know it without digging into numbers but Ellis ranks on the team 4th RBI, 1st Runs, 2nd AB, 1st SB, 3rd Hits, 2nd HRs all while hitting .239. Hey, the A's haven't done anything offensively SINCE the Nineties. But Ellis hit 2 out of 7 of the A's walk-offs this year and 1/4 of his RBI are against the Angels. Ellis may not hit much but when he hits it counts, he's our most clutch hitter. And if Beane hasn't dealt Chavez yet, I can't think of why he wouldn't try to keep Ellis, especially if our best prospect at 2nd turns out to be Corey's younger brother.
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