Chicago Cubs Win in Pitching Deal Duel

The bottom line for comparing Rich Harden and CC Sabathia is consistency, or lack of.  Both pitchers are extremely talented, sometimes dominant, and maddeningly inconsistent for different reasons. 

Sabathia makes more starts and goes deeper into starts, but is less consistent per outing.  Also, Sabathia seems to raise or lower his game for the competition, sometimes. 

For instance, Sabathia threw a complete game shutout in his last start against the Oakland A's, but was shelled so bad in the two previous starts against Oakland that he's 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA against the A's this year. 

Sabathia got a win vs. Roy Halladay in a 1-0 pitcher's duel and a 1-0 loss against Chien-Ming Wang in New York.  Yet he's 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA against the Kansas City Royals. 

All in all, Sabathia's made 19 starts with the Indians/Brewers this year going 7-8 with a 3.79 ERA against teams with a cumulative winning percentage of .504.  His team is 9-10 in games Sabathia starts this year.

Rich Harden has made fewer starts, pitched fewer innings, and gets fewer decisions.  But Harden has consistently pitched well when he's been healthy enough to start. 

Harden is 2-0 with a 1.58 ERA in three starts against the defending champion Boston Red Sox.

Harden won against Tim Hudson and Atlanta, giving up one run over seven innings, and did the same in a no-decision versus Roy Halladay and Toronto before pitching an eight-inning, two-hit shutout with 11 Ks against the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Harden's velocity dropped off over his last two starts as he pitched five innings each against the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox.  For July, Harden is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA, giving up 10 hits while getting nine Ks against two of the best teams in the AL.

All in all, Harden's made 13 starts with the Oakland A's this year going 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA against teams with a cumulative winning percentage of .536.  The A's were 9-4 in games Harden started.

Both pitchers have limited postseason experience and neither have great postseason numbers.  Both made post season appearances in their rookie years.  Harden is 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA in seven innings, surrendering two HRs in limited action.  Sabathia is 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA in 21 innings, giving up three HRs.

Sabathia is clearly the better hitter.  His career batting line is 42 AB, .286 avg., two HR and seven RBI.  Harden's offensive line is nine AB with one hit for a .111 avg. 

So who got the better pitcher, the Cubs or the Brewers?  For this season, when Rich Harden's been healthy enough to start, he has performed more consistently than CC Sabathia.  But it really wouldn't surprise me if both these guys ended the season on the DL.  At that point the comparisons would be moot except for one thing, which club made the better deal?

Clearly the Chicago Cubs gave up less to get more than the Milwaukee Brewers.  Without the addition of Chad Gaudin (pronounced Go-dan for you Cubs fans who I know don't know better) to the Cubs these deals would have been much more even. 

But the Brewers gave away their two best prospects plus two more to rent a starter for half a year. The Brewers have almost no chance of re-signing both Sabathia and Ben Sheets, either or both of whom could wind up with the Cubs or the Indians or nearly anybody else this winter. 

Meanwhile, the Cubs gave up nothing more than some surplus for a proven No. 1 or No. 2 starter with a year and a half left on his contract at $7 million per and got Chad Gaudin, who is arbitration eligible for the next three years, for a free insurance policy should Harden go down. 

Gaudin is the steal of this trade and the reason many A's fans say that Cubs GM Jim Hendry pantsed the A's Billy Beane on this deal.

In the end if the Brewers overtake the Cubs this fall they can well say the short term gain was worth it.  But under any other scenario, the Cubs win.