MLB.com is reporting that the Chicago Cubs have acquired Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Oakland A's for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and minor-league catcher Josh Donaldson. This is already shaping up to be one exciting trade deadline.
Despite seeming to be a rather knee-jerk reaction to the Brewers' acquisition of CC Sabathia over the weekend, the Cubs did well with what little they have. The feeling around the organization must be that Murton and Patterson are not going to provide much in terms of major-league production, while Donaldson is undeniably blocked.
The A's, on the other hand, must have decided that they were never safe with Harden, and that he was better traded than "being" traded. I'll begin looking at how the Cubs did in this trade.
Initially, I thought, "Great job," and even now I am confident this is as good a starter as the Cubs could've possibly acquired. They may have been able to do some other shuffling to bring aboard Erik Bedard, but outside of that, no one available is near the pitcher that Rich Harden is.
However, with Harden's injury history—which will be beaten to death in other reflections of this trade—he does come as quite the gamble.
In Harden, the Cubs receive a legitimate ace. In Harden's six seasons as a major-league starter (along with seven outings from the 'pen), he has always performed at an extraordinarily high level. His career NRA (Normalized Runs Allowed) sits at 3.52 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a strong 3.43. These are the numbers of an outstanding pitcher. For example, in 2007 there were only eight starters with an FIP of 3.43 or lower.
The unfortunate issue is that Harden has only once qualified for the ERA title and is no sure bet to make it through this year. Given the use and abuse the Cubs traditionally place on their starters' arms, Cubland will be holding its collective breath with every nasty pitch Harden throws.
As a fastball/change-up pitcher now, Harden has done his best to limit the amount of strain he puts on his arm. While his fastball has lost a bit of velocity, it is still one of the better pitches in the majors, as he has pinpoint control. Despite missing a brief stint thus far, by all accounts his arm has held up—in Harden's terms.
The only worry that is not injury-related is the flyball rate. With the essential extinction of Harden's slider has come an incredible jump in his flyball percentage (FB%). Owning a FB% of over 50 percent may prove to be detrimental in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Keep an eye on that as he also regresses toward the mean in home runs per flyball (HR/FB).
The acquisition of Chad Gaudin
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