By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com
Team: Cincinnati Reds
Average Draft Position: 106th pick No Change
Recommended Draft Round: 11
Team Saves Projection: 45
Injury Risk/Stability: 8/9
Top 50 Rank: 13
Francisco Cordero is an anomaly in my eyes. He's such a risky closer because of his history of inconsistency for big chunks of seasons. Last year was one of the best years of his career, but owners should take a step back and consider some of the liabilities of drafting Cordero as a No. 1 closer in 2010. Here are a few. On average, Cordero blows close to eight games per year. Last year he blew four. His career era is 3.18, and last year it was 2.16. In even more bad news, his K/9 rate declined significantly in 2009, and he turned 35 in May, which isn't helping the possibility of injury or further regression. The good news is the Reds will improve a ton in 2010. Cordero will pitch 70+ innings and get 38-40 saves, but don't expect the great numbers to go along with it.
The True Guru Strategy: I don't like drafting closers like Cordero. He is too much of a wild card and just too old. His ADP has him going in the ninth round, and that is too high for Cordero. There are several closers I'd take before him. He is a good value in the 11th round and no sooner.