If the season ended today, a lot of Big East team's futures would be up in the air. Unfortunately, that will also be the case Saturday when the regular season ends. However, some teams need to make a case for themselves in the final days.
It is safe to say that Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Marquette are all in. It is also safe to say that Rutgers, St. John's, Providence, and DePaul are all out unless they win the conference tournament. However, for the seven teams in between, there is still work left to do.
Louisville - 77% chance to get in.
Quality wins: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Connecticut.
Bad Losses: Charlotte, West Carolina, St. John's
The Cardinals would have been a lock had they been able to beat Charlotte or West Carolina. However, those bad losses will leave the committee wondering if they are a consistent team. Keep in mind that they suffered a 19 point loss to St. John's just three days before taking out Syracuse at home.
Georgetown - 77%
Quality wins: Temple, Butler, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Louisville
Bad Losses: Old Dominion, South Florida, Rutgers
The Hoyas will likely make the tournament if they win in their first round quarterfinal matchup at Madison Square Garden. However, if they lose then, combined with a home loss to Cincy in their final regular season game, the Hoyas future may be in doubt.
Notre Dame - 63%
Quality wins: Saint Louis, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Loyola Marymount, Rutgers, St. John's
This team seemed to have been dealt a bad hand with the loss of star player Luke Harangody, who averaged 24.1 a game. However after a rough stretch where they lost three straight games by a combined six points, they seem to be back on track with wins against Pitt and Georgetown. With victories against Connecticut and Marquette to end the season, a tourney bid will be locked.
South Florida - 50%
Quality wins: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Central Michigan, St. John's
This is the true definition of a bubble team. Some good wins, some bad losses. They are really up in the air. They seemed to be on the right track after wins against Pitt and Georgetown, but have dropped after getting blown out by St. John's and Nova. If they finish the regular season on a three game winning streak, which is possible if they beat UConn on Saturday, it is possible they would be in.
Quality wins: Iona, Notre Dame, Texas, Villanova, West Virginia
Bad Losses: Cincinnati (twice), Providence
UConn has had a roller coaster year:
Started off inconsistent.
Lost two tough games at packed MSG crowds.
Lost their coach because he was sick.
Got the coach back.
Lost a close game to Louisville.
They seem to be on the right track, and have two winnable games to close out the regular season with Notre Dame and USF.
Seton Hall - 50%
Quality ins: Cornell, (134 points vs. VMI), Louisville, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: South Florida
Seton Hall has an amazing offensive flow. They have one of the best players in the country with Jeremy Hazell, and they have a favorable schedule with Rutgers and Providence being their last two games. A win in both of those, with an additional win to start the Big East tournament would go a long way towards making the tournament.
Cincinnati - 40%
Quality wins: Vanderbilt, Maryland, Connecticut (twice), Notre Dame
Bad Losses: UAB, St. John's
Cincinnati has had a rough go around this season. They have lost some close games that would have helped their standing, and have been struggling as of late. If they can beat Georgetown on Saturday on the road, and pick up two wins at Madison Square Garden, then the Bearcats might be in.
3. West Virginia
8. Notre Dame
9. South Florida
11. Seton Hall
14. St. John's
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