Michigan Wolverines: Way Too Early Predictions For 2010 (Games 4-6)

At this point, my pre-spring predictions have Michigan starting strong again, as they did in 2009.

With wins over Connecticut and Notre Dame, Michigan could very well start 3-0 and pick up a great deal of momentum with these next few games, but it will also be important to pay close attention to Bowling Green, Indiana, and Michigan State, as none of them are easy wins.

Week Four: Bowling Green Falcons

Why Michigan could lose this game: Well, to begin with Bowling Green has a habit of knocking off BCS opponents including Pitt, Minnesota, and Purdue. It's not a major habit but this program is fairly solid as MAC programs go.

Although they didn't score a lot in 2009 (27.6 ppg) Bowling Green had a very productive passing offense that averaged well over 300 yards per game last year. 

This might not bode well for a Michigan team that really struggled to defend anyone last season, and will still be introducing some new faces in the secondary.

If Michigan's defense stagnates this off-season or (God help us all) gets worse somehow, then Bowling Green could end up having a field day moving the ball down the field.

The real question mark will be whether or not Bowling Green can find the right guys to step up in Dave Clawson's offense to score 40 points or so.

Why Michigan could win this game: There are plenty of reasons to believe that Michigan will win this one. Tyler Sheehan and his top receiver Freddie Barnes are both gone, and they have taken their 4,000 yards passing and 155 catches (Barnes) with them! By the way, with regard to Barnes I say wow!

Also, Michigan is going up against a defense that loses six players from its secondary and starting linebacking corps, and this was from a group that gave up 26 points per game while playing MAC-level competition.

Michigan should definitely be able to score a ton of points in this game much like they did against MAC teams last season. It's easy to envision the Wolverines scoring 31 by halftime as they did vs. Western Michigan in 2009.

Even so, nothing is guaranteed in Ann Arbor these days and this could still turn into another disgusting upset, ending the Rodriguez era. Altogether, Bowling Green doesn't have much of a run game (3.1 per carry average) and they are quite small up front.

Prediction: This game will actually be somewhat competitive until halftime, but will slip away from the Falcons in the third quarter badly. This will also be a nice wake-up call for Michigan as they need to take every game seriously in 2010. No excuses this time around. Give Michigan a 90-plus percent chance at winning, if not 100 percent.

Week Five: at Indiana Hoosiers

Why Michigan could lose this game: Indiana played a tight game with Michigan in Ann Arbor last year that came down to a controversial Donovan Warren interception late in the contest.

That and the heroics of Tate Forcier playing through an injured throwing shoulder to mount a comeback were evidence that these two teams weren't far apart competitively.

Indiana also returns eight starters on an offense that scored 33 on the Wolverines last year, so it will be interesting to see how the fair at home on Michigan's defense. I see a very experienced, athletic offense by Indiana's recent standards.

Why Michigan could win this game: Indiana gave up 36 points to a team with a hobbled up true freshman quarterback with one of their best defenses in recent memory. The real problem is they lost almost everyone including Jamie Kirlew and Greg Middleton.

Michigan should be able to score more points than Indiana (fingers crossed), and may be better equipped for their rushing attack with William Campbell taking over the Nose Tackle spot, and everyone around also being a year older.

Prediction: Michigan beats Indiana by two scores on their own turf. Indiana will fight and scrap, but their meltdown at the end of 2009 was nearly as bad as Michigan's and they lose too much to compete with the Maize and Blue this year.

In no facet of the game does Michigan have to replace nine starters...Indiana does. If they get past UConn and Notre Dame Michigan will be 5-0 at this point. Give Indiana a 25 percent chance at victory.

Week Six: Michigan State Spartans

Why Michigan could lose this game: Let's start with the fact the Michigan State is actually a pretty good football team. They return seven starters on defense led by linebacker Greg Jones who decided to forgo the NFL draft.

They return seven starters on offense including three offensive linemen, running back Larry Caper and the highly talented Kirk Cousins at quarterback. You can expect a better offense next year with the depth at running back and development of Cousins.

Also, Michigan State will probably have their most athletic defense that they've had under Dantonio with Greg Jones, Dion Sims and incoming freshman William Gholston. The Spartans shut Michigan's run game down for the most part, keeping talented senior running backs silent. What will they do to Michigan's running backs next year?

Michigan also has a struggling defense that could be susceptible to a ball control offense if Michigan State sits on the ball all day like 2009. On top of these factors Michigan State has a two game winning streak so there is a psychological factor.

Why Michigan could win this game: First, Michigan State has an overrated defense. They gave up over 25 points per game and they lose Trevor Anderson, Adam Decker, Ross Weaver, Danny Fortener, and Ashton Henderson. Their best athletes are still quite young and their secondary is suspect.

Michigan should be a year older and wiser. If Tate Forcier gets the time in the pocket he got late in East Lansing last year, he could have a big day hitting Roy Roundtree, Junior Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, Martavious Odoms, Kevin Koger or any of the other younger targets competing this spring.

Last but not least, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how off-field troubles will shake up Michigan State's depth chart. All of these issues make this game a tough call.

Prediction: Right now this game is a pick em'...The only reason I'm tempted to give Michigan the edge is the game is Ann Arbor, well that and Michigan has a chance to make bigger strides on offense than Michigan State.

Any time you start a true freshman at quarterback there is potential for incredible growth from year one to year two. This will be a tough game.