College Football: Which Conference Has The Biggest Cupcake Schedule?

It's time to take a look at the 2008 non-conference football schedules. I have taken the liberty of looking at four BCS conferences- the Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10 and the SEC.

I took the 5 most competitive teams from each of these conferences and rated their SOS.

On a scale one 1-5, each team's opponent gets a ranking. Add the scores up and divide by the number of teams they played to get an average.

5- Member of a BCS conference and won their bowl.
4- Member of a BCS conference with a bowl loss or a non-BCS member bowl winner.
3- Member of a BCS conference with a losing record or a non-BCS member who won conference.
2- FBS (formerly division 1A) member with a winning record.
1- FBS member with a .500 or worst record or bowl loss.
0- FCS (formerly division 1AA) member.

First up, the Big-10.

Ohio State=2.0

Youngstown State-0
Ohio-1
USC- 5
Troy-2

Michigan=1.75

Utah-4
Miami of Ohio-1
Notre Dame-1
Toledo-1

Wisconsin=1.5

Akron-1
Marshall-1
Fresno State-4
Cal Poly-0

Penn State=2.25

Coastal Carolina-0
Oregon State-5
Syracuse-3
Temple-1

Illinois=1.75

Missouri-5
Eastern Illinois-0
Louisiana-LaFayette-1
Western Michigan-1



The Pac-10.

Oregon=2.6

Utah State-1
Purdue-5
Boise State-2


UCLA-=4.3

Fresno State-4
Tennessee-5
BYU-4

USC=3.0

Virginia-4
Ohio State-4
Notre Dame-1

Cal=3.0

Michigan State-4
Maryland-4
Colorado State-1

Arizona State=2.0

Northern Arizona-0
UNLV-1
Georgia-5

The BIG-12.

Oklahoma=3.0

Tennessee-Chattanooga-0
Cincinnati-5
Washington- 3
TCU-4


Kansas=1.5

Florida Int'l-1
Louisiana Tech-1
South Florida-4
Sam Houston St -0

Texas=2.5

Florida Atlantic-4
Arkansas-4
Rice-1
UTEP- 1

Mizzou=1.25

Illinois- 4
SE Missouri-0
Nevada-1
Buffalo-0

Texas A&M=2.25

Arkansas State-1
New Mexico-4
Miami-3
Army-1

The SEC.

LSU=.75

North Texas-1
Troy-1
App State-0
Tulane-1

Georgia=2.75

Georgia-Southern-0
Central Michigan-3
Arizona State-4
Georgia Tech-4

Florida=2.5

Hawaii-3
Miami(Fl)-3
The Citadel-0
Florida State-4

Tennessee=1.75

UAB-1
UCLA-4
Northern Illinois-1
Wyoming-1

Arkansas-2.5

Western Illinois-0
Louisiana-Monroe-1
Texas-5
Tulsa-4

Conference averages:

Pac-10-  2.98
Big 12-  2.2
SEC -  2.05
Big-Ten-  1.85

Which conference is the biggest cream cake offender of them all? The Big Ten. They averaged under a 2.0.

Looking at who they have on their schedules so far, it looks like they are going after the fluffiest of cream puffs, the true gourmet's choice of the caloric-laden pastry, based on last year's final records.

Another point of contention is while the SEC gets blamed for cream puff scheduling, they came in third to the Pac-10 and two of their teams have to play a 13th game, although it's not a non-conference game. Give them credit.


A final look at the 2007 season.....

No real surprises on the SOS. Jeff Sargarin, who does SOS rankings for the BCS, had the following top five schools for his toughest 2007 schedules:

1-UCLA
2-Washington
3-Florida
4-Nebraska
5-Oregon

Phil Steele released his final 5, and he had these schools in the top 5:

1-Washington
2-UCLA
3-Oklahoma State
4-Nebraska
5-Arizona

Schools that made the top 10 in the BCS rankings have also had their SOS rankings released. The rankings were released by Jeff Sargarin, the same man who is responsible for some computer BCS poll rankings:

LSU #11
OSU #53
Kansas #74
West Virginia # 40
USC #29
OKlahoma #44
Mizzou #25
Georgia #23
VaTech #36
Florida #3

What does this all mean? Obviously, a team with a high SOS and a very good record (ie-LSU) is no fluke. Same with Georgia and USC. Two teams with very good SOS's and ended up the year with only two losses. OSU was ranked #1 preseason but their SOS was #53, and their performance in the title game reflected that lack of competition to warrant that lofty ranking.

Clearly, SOS should be an important stat to incorporate when ranking teams.

But the stats are meaningless during the year. Case in point- if Team A is ranked # 1 preseason, and team B beats them, and then team A goes on to lose every game after the first game, does Team B have an honest claim of saying they beat a #1 team?

Of course not, and especially so early in the season. An 0-12 team never deserves that lofty ranking, at any point in the season, so only after the season is complete can a clear picture of how good a team is emerge.

Look at South Carolina and Georgia for perfect examples. South Carolina started with a bang, and was ranked as high as #6, then tanked their last half of the season, while Georgia struggled a bit early, but ended their season looking like one of the best teams in the country.

If your team beat South Carolina, did you beat a #6 team? No, because at the end of the season they were not ranked that high, so that ranking is not valid.

Finally, one thing seems crystal clear. Too many teams are scheduling cream puffs. One cream puff is OK, but three or four is not.

The NCAA should mandate that all FBS schools have to schedule FBS schools only. If the pollsters are going to use SOS ratings to determine a true winner, then they need to make sure all the teams are competing on a fair and level playing field.

2008 preseason SOS top 10 rankings, according to Phil Steele:

1. Washington
2. Arkansas
3. Georgia
4. Vanderbilt
5. Oregon State
6. UCLA
7. Baylor
8. Colorado
9. Virginia
10. NC State

Others: Florida #12, Michigan #15, LSU #19, USC #21, Texas #23, Oklahoma #30, Ohio State #31, Oregon #33, Wisconsin #46, Penn State #48.