Update 07/018/08: here is the links to parts 2, 3 and 4:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/35642-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-2
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/36513-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-3
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/38995-college-football-my-preseason-top-25-part-4
I hope everybody had a great Fourth of July. I set off colorful explosives just as our founders intended. I am going to release my preseason ranking today for my top five teams. I will publish the rest of my Top 25 sometime in the next week
Preseason rankings, as a general rule, are more important than some fans give them credit for. While any team can climb high and low after the rankings are established, most teams are able to play their way into (or out of) any bowl throughout the course of the season.
However, if there are more than two undefeated teams come bowl selection in December, where they placed on the AP list at the beginning of the year matters (see Auburn 2004).
I have picked these teams based on, first and foremost, how strong I think the team is and in a distant second, whether I think they will or will not beat the teams they are facing.
I think anyone who makes rankings looks at what others have done.
I did not copy any sets of rankings, in fact, I included rankings from Athlon, Phil Steele, Stewart Mandel (Sports Illustrated), and Mark Schlabach (ESPN), to show you what they thought.
I made my own decisions, agreeing with some and not with others.
Stewart Mandel’s rankings are current as of May 1 and Mark Schlabach’s are current as of Jun. 25. I do not think either has produced a more recent version.
Without further ado, the first annual Colin Clark preseason rankings:
1. Ohio State (Athlon No. 2, Phil Steele No. 2, SI No. 2, ESPN No. 2)
Overview: Face it, no one actually wants to see these guys in the chase for the crystal football again.
However, they have the best team by a close margin. They have three Heisman candidates—RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, LB James Laurinaitis, and QB Todd Boeckman.
While the Heisman probably will not go to a defensive player (the last one was Charles Woodson from Michigan in 1997, the last one before that was Leon Hart from Notre Dame in 1949) Laurinaitis is probably the best linebacker in the nation.
Ohio State has all the pieces from last year (10 returning on offense, nine on defense) minus Vernon Gholston, the lone OSU player to go early to the NFL.
Opponents: In their favor is a relatively easy slate this year, besides a date with USC on September 13.
I also think they are a hungrier team than this year’s Pete Carroll incarnation and will win convincingly. Their game at Wisconsin provides a great upset opportunity for the Badgers. Finally, look forward to another unhappy Thanksgiving in Ann Arbor.
(Prediction: 12-0, Big Ten Crown, BCS National Title Game—Believe it)
2. Georgia (Athlon No. 5, Phil Steele No. 9, SI No. 1, ESPN No. 1)
Overview: Even though other writers may disagree, this was an easy pick for me. This team significantly heated up over the course of last year and looked like it deserved to be in the SEC championship game even though Tennessee beat them.
They won their last six games last year straight and by no less then ten points. These wins included four ranked teams. Their dominating victory over the (Rainbow) Warriors of Hawaii last January convinced many that they deserved a shot over LSU in the BCS championship game.
While I personally thought that that was a stretch, they looked solid. They return eight starters on offense and nine on defense, as well as the vast majority of their play makers .
Look to Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford to lead the Bulldogs to the Promised Land.
The receiving unit looked like the weakest link last year (lots of drops early on in the season), Mohamed Massaquoi (who himself had only one drop all season) will lead this receiving unit that returns few starters and could make or break an otherwise impressively strong team.
Opponents: I don’t know if you heard, but Georgia has a tough schedule. Like Tennessee’s 1998 championship squad and LSU’s 2007 team, a tough schedule will make voters more forgiving and will harden a team and will help them play better in tough situations.
Look forward to a loss at LSU and a win at Florida at this years’ Cocktail Party. While Arizona State will play tough and try to steal a win from Georgia, I don’t think it will happen.
I also predict they will go to Atlanta and win the SEC this year and land a berth in this year’s championship game against Ohio State.
(Prediction: 12-1, SEC Crown, BCS National Title Game)
3. Oklahoma (Athlon No. 3, Phil Steele No. 3, SI No. 6, ESPN No. 3)
Overview: This is a tough looking team. First off, Sam Bradford was the most efficient passer in the game last year as a first-time starter. They return three of four defensive linemen, including the best two DTs in the game, DeMarcus Granger and Gerald McCoy.
In total, they return eight starters on offense and five on defense. Last year was another example of a tradition that has started in Norman: win 10 or 11 games and choke in January (they have lost four of five, the lone win being the only non-BCS appearance).
I feel the chip on the shoulder of this team gets bigger every year. Bob Stoops, who seems to have become underrated nationally as a coach, is excellent at player development and will finally bring home a large trophy.
Opponents: The Big 12 is easily the second-best conference this year. What may keep the Sooners from another BCS berth is a hiccup against Kansas, Texas Tech, or Texas.
While the schedule favors the Sooners (the aforementioned teams play them in Norman) my hunch says that the Red Raiders will stun the Sooners.
The conference strength of the SEC will probably keep a Big 12 team out of the championship game if an SEC team is No. 2 and a Big 12 team is No. 3 and they have the same record. Sorry, Big 12.
(Prediction: 12-1, Big Twelve Champ, Fiesta Bowl Berth)
4. USC (Athlon No. 4, Phil Steele No. 4, SI No. 3, ESPN No. 4)
Overview: Pete Carroll has a recruiting stranglehold in California. Not only has he already got the best QB for next year, Matt Barkley of Mater Dei in Santa Anna, California, that player may well be crowned the top recruit of the 2009 class.
However, herein lies the problem with USC. They are three-deep at every position of kids who would start anywhere else. What kind of team does that create?
Think of our past Dream Teams at the Olympics (Basketball, yes I know, just follow along for a minute). They always seem to be the most talented squad on the floor, but they either win the gold or go home based on how well they play as a team.
The first two Dream teams played well together, the second two… not so much. I feel like this team will not play well enough together to win it all. Will I be surprised if they do? Not in the least.
There is no reason to go through their lineup. They are deep. Trust me.
Opponents: More like opponent. Ohio State. September 13. The media says that the winner of this game is going to be in the National Championship game. And I think they are right.
Besides this gargantuan game, if they hold together, I think they could run the table. Visits to Virgina and UCLA and hosting Oregon, Cal and Arizona State could provide upset potential.
In my heart of hearts (I will be rooting for them over Ohio State) I think Ohio State will win, even though they are playing at the Coliseum.
Both teams have fantastic talent, but I think Ohio State is a more cohesive team and wants the win more. They have more to prove.
(Prediction: 11-1, Pac-10 Champ, Rose Parade Berth)
5. Texas Tech (Athlon No. 18, Phil Steele No. 11, SI No. 8, ESPN No. 8)
Overview: If Texas Tech is ever going to go to a BCS Bowl, this is their year and they know it. Graham Harrell is a legitimate contender for the Heisman and is the best pocket passer in the country, whether that is because the Texas Tech system makes it so irrelevant until NFL draft day or not.
Michael Crabtree, another (sophomore) Heisman candidate, will also lead the Red Raiders catching passes. They return ten starters on offense (ranked No. 2 overall in the country last year) and eight on defense.
Will their defense hold up? I think so. Texas Tech quietly led the Big 12 in defense over their last eight games last year after the debacle at Oklahoma State. They also showed poise in the Gator Bowl by coming back late and beating the best Virginia team of the last few years.
Opponents: This is where the Red Raiders have the opportunity to do very well. They have a cupcake September schedule—E. Washington, at Nevada, SMU and UMass—and they pull Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor at home.
I still think they will lose to Oklahoma. Their road visits include Kansas State, (a not very good) Texas A&M, and Kansas. I think they will beat Kansas, mostly because I believe that Kansas will not score enough points to win.
Look for Texas Tech to attack Kansas corner Kendrick Harper and free safety Justin Thornton, who will probably not live up to their predecessors. Could this game go the other way? Sure. But the smart money is on Texas Tech.
(Prediction: 11-1, BCS at large berth)
Next: My picks No. 6 through No. 10
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3 months ago
Good analysis, but I hardly think Boeckman is a Heisman candidate. Kid can't throw the ball when under pressure. Beanie, however, should have a 2000+ yard season.
3 months ago
Texas Tech will beat Oklahoma.
I'd like to see Georgia vs Ohio State, it would give 3 consecutive SEC teams a chance to beat Ohio State for the BCS title.
If Ohio State falls down at Sou Cal in September, they're out of it. No one is interested in seeing them get blown out again so the network gurus would step in at that point and influence the vote with some new category, like when they threw out victory margin.
If Sou Cal beats Ohio St they'll play for the the national championship vs the SEC or Big12 winner.
from 3 months ago
"Texas Tech will beat Oklahoma."
Seriously, IF Texas Tech beats Oklahoma this year... I think that they will go UNDEFEATED :)
3 months ago
While the case can be made for OSU being #1, it is a little naive to think that
A- Boeckman is a Heisman candidate. If OSU has 3, it would be Malcolm Jenkins who would be the 3rd.
B- That OSU will win against USC convincingly. I think you would have to go back to 2000 to find a USC loss by more than 7 points. That is simply incredible. ANYONE who thinks this will not be a close game is crazy.
Lastly, the more I look at the schedules, I think Georgia and Oklahoma could play in the NC game if both run the tables. Even with a win over USC. The OSU schedule is weak compared to these two teams. If OU and Georgia run the tables, it is VERY possible that OSU would go to Pasadena.
3 months ago
Oklahoma looked great all last season, their loss to Texas Tech can be attributed to Bradford getting knocked out if you like to look at it that way. Still, their defensive meltdown against West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl worries me when they get ranked this high. A lot of the players who spent the whole night looking at the Mountaineers' backsides are gone, and we know that they are being placed by highly touted recruits. But the Big XII might be the best offensive conference in the country, and I'm curious to see how well the Sooners hold up against the likes of Kansas, Texas Tech, and a revenge minded Missouri.
3 months ago
this just show how dumb you really are Colin. When was the last time Texas Tech won anything in the big 12? Until they actually win a division, they are top 25 team at best.
3 months ago
I think LSU will surprise you this year (again). They are the fastest team in the nation on offense and defense and will be right there in the hunt next January for the BCS Championship.
from 3 months ago
LSU FOOTBALL
A TRADITION . . . SINCE AUGUST 2003
from 3 months ago
Jimson, are you actually trying to take a jab at LSU's football program? You do realize you root for the Kansas Jayhawks right? The perennial doormat of the Big 12 every year until last year.
Man, you are one delusional, kool-aid drinking Kansas fan.
3 months ago
I do feel you have TTU too high... and I'm a Techsan.
Borderline top 10, I'd be happy with anything between 8 and 18. I think our defense will be better than it has been in the time of Mike Leach, but I'm still in wait-and-see mode.
3 months ago
Here is the thing about OSU, they are a great team in a medicore conference at leas in this year, yes the Big 10 this is medicore. They are below the SEC, Big XII, and Pac-10. Ohio State may keep the game close because of their defense agaisnt USC, but face it USC does not lose at home. Their loss last year against Stanford was their first in 5 years, and their starting QB obtained a broken hand during. OSU could make it to number one if they run the table after they get exposed against USC.
Also, everyone LOVES Texas Tech, but until they can beat Texas or Oklahoma I am not buying the Red Raiders. There is always a possibility but I wont believe until I see it.
from 3 months ago
Uh, they beat Oklahom in 2007 and 2005, and led in the 4th quarter in Norman in 2006.
3 months ago
Here is the thing about OSU, they are a great team in a medicore conference at leas in this year, yes the Big 10 this is medicore. They are below the SEC, Big XII, and Pac-10. Ohio State may keep the game close because of their defense agaisnt USC, but face it USC does not lose at home. Their loss last year against Stanford was their first in 5 years, and their starting QB obtained a broken hand during. OSU could make it to number one if they run the table after they get exposed against USC.
Also, everyone LOVES Texas Tech, but until they can beat Texas or Oklahoma I am not buying the Red Raiders. There is always a possibility but I wont believe until I see it.
3 months ago
USC at home (Stanford notwithstanding) is too formidable. I think that Mark Sanchez and company will shred the OSU defense that is slightly overrated in a conference that has left soooo much to be desired. Look for USC to come out this season with a lot to prove...they have more to prove than Ohio State. The last two years they should've been in the BCS titlte game were it not for the freakish loss to Stanford and the incredible upset by the upstart Bruins the year before.
And as linebackers go, I like the guy in the middle for USC. I like his back-up as well!
3 months ago
Good comments, overall. Ryan, you are right, Boeckman may not have the Heisman potential that, say, Tebow or Moreno might have.
However, He has all the weapons to have a spectacular season and Terrell Pryor may light a fire under his seat to get him to play more competitively. He certainly has the experience to make the jump from good to great.
Again, he may not.
Many of you challenge putting Texas Tech up there at number 5. Historically, Texas Tech has not been a fantastic football school, even among the Big 12. However, this is their breakout year. Mike Leach is an underrated coach and I saw these guys play and I was certainly impressed with their offense. The fact that they return 10 starters (the one guy who isn't returning is a wide receiver) cannot be overstated. Sure, that doesn't necessarily mean their offense will be explosive. But these starters last year had the second best offense in the country.
Buy low, sell high. Watch out for the Red Raiders.
3 months ago
how can you not include West Virginia
they may not be NC material but they deserve a top 5!!!
3 months ago
Whoa. I like Texas Tech, but there is no way they are #5. That is a bold pick for sure.
3 months ago
Hey...I like the Texas Tech pick! Harrel and Crabtree are an awesome combo...now if they just can get their D to show up, they could be contenders!
The Bruins won't upset the Trojans this year...they may not even win 5 games...they lost everybody including their coaching staff, both quarterbacks and 25 seniors.
USC won't lose to OSU...if you look at their records, SC loses to in-conference teams, not out of conference teams. Last year, it was Oregon and Stanford.
While I don't think Boeckman is Heisman-hype worthy yet, I like Beanie. And Laurinaitis is outstanding, but I think our guy, Rey Maualuga (with Brian Cushing next to him) is a beast. I expect Boeckman to get to know him up and close and personal this September...Juice (Illinois) had a first-hand experience at what Maualuga is capable of.
Nice article! I like that you took some risks and didn't just re-hash what everyone else thinks. Stick to your Tech pick- you can laugh at your minions later.
:)
3 months ago
Texas Tech at number 5? You've got to me kidding me. One good QB and one good WR will win you some games, and make you competitive... but a team needs a great defense to hang around with the elite programs. Ask any of us Gator fans how your team fares when the offense is clicking but the defense isn't. And TT gave up a ton of points to some pretty average teams last year.
Also, while UGA definitely deserves its ranking, you got the part about LSU and UF backwards. LSU will be average this year, much like UF was after they lost so many of their NC players to the NFL. Plus, they don't even know who their QB will be yet; and the choices aren't very exciting... a transfer from Harvard, and two guys who've yet to take a snap. UGA should take care of business in Baton Rouge; but, they will be good and beat up for the following week's game (which isn't actually ever played at Florida, but in Jacksonville) against Florida, who will have a huge chip on their shoulder following the BS last year. UGA will be coming off a trying away game at LSU, and traveling again to Jacksonville to face Florida; while Florida will be coming off a homecoming game against UK (who they've beaten 21 straight times) and driving a little over an hour to Jax. It's been nearly 20 years since UGA beat UF 2 years in a row, going 3-15 since they last did it. If UGA loses a game, it'll be to UF.
And, despite Gordon's contention that LSU has the fastest team in the nation, that title clearly belongs to Florida... with USC coming in a close second.
3 months ago
Lisa,
Thanks for the comment. I beg to differ with you on the upset potential on the USC/UCLA game. I'm sure you remember a four-win Pitt going to Morgantown last year and stunning WVU. The backyard brawl has a rivalry with visceral hatred. The hatred of USC at UCLA I think is underrated. They hate USC. This is their game of the year and they will play like it. Will USC bring their 'A' game or have an epic Stanford-like collapse? I am sticking by my Texas Tech pick (thank you) and my possibility of a UCLA upset. It isn't likely, but possible.
G8R,
The cocktail party is a defacto home game for UF and everybody knows it. That would be like saying the Superdome is a neutral site for LSU. And you are wrong, LSU will surprise the Gators this year. I will post more on that today or tomorrow.
Furthermore, LSU will rely on the running attack this year and will be able to protect a QB so he can have a Matt Flynn-like season (who, let's face it, wasn't spectacular last year). I think the Gators are slightly overrated this year.
3 months ago
Having them both in the top 5 justifies all the talk about the matchup between the Sooners and Red Raiders, but both of these teams' seasons will come down to another common factor... a game against Texas.
The Longhorns are inexperienced but talented and get to play the unfamiliar role of Spoilers this year. OU restocks annually too but they've shown themselves to be shaky lately when it counts. Texas Tech is everybody's favorite underdog due to their off-the-wall coach and offense, but is this defensive emergence for real?
I suspect the baby horns will expose one of them before the meeting in Norman.
3 months ago
Nicholas,
You are totally one-upping me. I was going to talk about the baby Horns when I get around to ranking them later this week.
While I think the Horns will lose to both Texas Tech and Oklahoma, you are right, they could play the spoilers this year.
Great insight.
3 months ago
I say, The Ohio St can't be # 1 until they prove they can win a big game. I think they should be top 5 based on them being a quality team with a soft schedule but you seem to think they have made some vast improvement ? "they have the best team by a close margin" Can one recruiting class and one year make that much difference ? Let them earn it then give them this much respect. fans outside of Ohio don't hate OS, we just think they get more credit than they earn.
3 months ago
Very good pick with Texas Tech. I'm glad to see someone brave enough to pick it that high. This is by far the most talented team top-to-bottom that Mike Leach has had and I project the Red Raiders to go 11-1 this year. I have Tech #8 in my poll, but that's only because I think this season has 11 really good teams at the top. I don't see there being as much parity as last year (how could there possibly be as much?) and so I'm projecting a lot of 1-loss teams. Your picks are spot on, although I would reverse #1 and #2!
from 3 months ago
Let me rephrase that. I'm projecting a lot of 1-loss and 2-loss teams, some of which I think are slightly better than Tech and thus ahead of the Raiders in my preseason rankings, even though Tech will likely be ranked #5 by the polls if my projections come through.
3 months ago
Good list.
I'd flip UGA and OSU and put UGA at 1 and OSU at 2. I like the pick of Texas Tech at #5 as well. I think they are very underrated this season.
3 months ago
I am a die hard tech fan and i hope your true..ill take a BCS game anyday! The whole B12 is good and i see us going 10-2 with a road loss were not suppose to lose too..but we will beat the horns at home..definately should have the last time the rolled through lubbock
3 months ago
by Quantumt
2 days ago
this just show how dumb you really are Colin. When was the last time Texas Tech won anything in the big 12? Until they actually win a division, they are top 25 team at best.
.................................................................................................................................................
Kansas...........?
3 months ago
Harrison,
Illinois has won one Big 10 championship since 1990 (it was in 2001). That is just from last year... along with Kansas.
Teams can get dramatically better overnight.
3 months ago
where the fuck is texas!!!!!!!!!!!!!! UT
from 3 months ago
Austin.
3 months ago
There is simply no way that Texas Tech is better then Missouri. (See 41-10 beatdown last season)
3 months ago
Mark, Ohio State hasn't proven they can win a big game? Everyone seems to believe that the NC is the only big game teams play in, obviously because that's the only games people can resort to. How many big games did they win before losing to Florida? They beat two #2 ranked teams. You can say all you want that Texas and Michigan were overrated that year, but how many people actually vote in the polls? Obviously they got tons of votes from all over the place to be ranked that high. Those were big games and OSU won them both. So have they proven they CAN win A big game? Yes they have multiple times. They did lose two big games in back to back NC games, but those aren't the only big games in history. As far as they don't deserve to be ranked #1, I agree pre-season. I think they should be #2 behind Georgia. But are you saying that if Georgia happened to lose in week 1 or 2 and OSU didn't, they shouldn't be #1 because they didn't win a big game such as USC yet? It wouldn't be their fault that they were ranked #2 pre-season because of how they looked on paper and then the #1 team lost.
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