SEC Basketball Stock Market

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SEC Basketball Stock Market
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As the SEC hoops season begins winding down and the second half of February approaches, it's time to dump the bad stocks and invest in those heading upward.

Which bandwagons to abandon and which to join is the question, and it's one that is thoroughly answered below.

Somewhere in between? Too bad; now isn't the time to be weak. One column or the other, I say, and the distinction begins now.

 

BUY

Auburn (11-13, 3-7)
RPI: 150th (-3), Kenpom: 106th (+12), Sagarin: 124th (+11)
Average RPI of future opponents: 97.50
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 2-6
Record in last five games: 2-3
Projected regular-season record: (14-16, 6-10)

The Tigers' remaining schedule is somewhat favorable, and two home wins between Arkansas, Mississippi State, and LSU is very realistic. One road win with trips to Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama is also possible. Even winning out won't save Lebo's job, though.


LSU (9-16, 0-11)

RPI: 213th (-1), Kenpom: 199th (-10), Sagarin: 198th (-10)
Average RPI of future opponents: 91.40
Road games remaining: 2/5
Record in road games: 0-7
Record in last five games: 0-5
Projected regular-season record: (11-19, 2-14)

The Tigers have had a rough season, but the end of February and the beginning of March could afford the team a couple of wins with a weaker schedule. A win against Auburn on the road isn't out of the question, and Arkansas and Georgia in Baton Rouge are both winnable.


Mississippi State (18-7, 6-4)

RPI: 57th (+13), Kenpom: 39th (-1), Sagarin: 49th (+7)
Average RPI of future opponents: 92.67
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 3-5
Record in last five games: 3-2
Projected regular-season record: (22-9, 10-6)

Mississippi State seems to be setting themselves back on track after a tough five-game stretch that saw four losses. Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee all come to Starkville, and two wins aren't out of the question there. Trips to LSU, South Carolina, and Auburn could all be wins, but shouldn't be less than two wins.


Ole Miss (17-7, 5-5)

RPI: 45th (-9), Kenpom: 42nd (-2), Sagarin: 37th (-1)
Average RPI of future opponents: 108.17
Road games remaining: 2/6
Record in road games: 4-4
Record in last five games: 2-3
Projected regular-season record: (21-9, 9-7)

The Rebels have one of the softest late-season schedules in the league, and it could result in six-straight wins, though the team has struggled lately. The team's best chances at losses are Vanderbilt at home and trips to Arkansas and Alabama. Ole Miss should join Mississippi State as the clear favorites for the divisional title.


Tennessee (18-6, 6-4)

RPI: 21st (-2), Kenpom: 31st (-12), Sagarin: 20th (-7)
Average RPI of future opponents: 66.67
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 3-4
Record in last five games: 3-2
Projected regular-season record: (22-8, 10-6)

Despite two straight losses, the Vols are playing well. Tennessee has some challenging but winnable games ahead, including Georgia and Arkansas at home with South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State on the road.


Vanderbilt (18-5, 8-2)

RPI: 16th (+1), Kenpom: 30th (-3), Sagarin: 21st (-1)
Average RPI of future opponents: 64-67
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 4-3
Record in last five games: 3-2
Projected regular-season record: (22-7, 12-4)

The Commodores endured their worst loss of the season at the hand of Georgia in Athens recently but look to rebound nicely at the end of the season and challenge Kentucky for the SEC overall regular-season title. Most likely losses seem to be Kentucky at home and a trip to Florida.

 

SELL

Alabama (14-11, 4-7)
RPI: 95th (+12), Kenpom: 74th (0), Sagarin: 82nd (+3)
Average RPI of future opponents: 83.00
Road games remaining: 3/5
Record in road games: 2-4
Record in last five games: 1-4
Projected regular-season record: (15-15, 5-11)

The Crimson Tide have several road games left and haven't performed well there. It's lost its last three road games, and the team's next two are at Georgia and Mississippi State. Both of those two should be losses. Ole Miss at home will be a tough game, and Auburn at home isn't a pushover for a 'Bama squad struggling to break even on the year.


Arkansas (13-12, 6-4)

RPI: 114th (-2), Kenpom: 92nd (+13), Sagarin: 107th (+4)
Average RPI of future opponents: 86.17
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 2-4
Record in last five games: 4-1
Projected regular-season record: (15-16, 8-8)

The Razorbacks have a tough schedule ahead but have won five of their last six. Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina all come to Fayetteville, and one win between those isn't a stretch. Trips to Auburn and LSU should provide at least one win, but visiting Tennessee should be a loss. Expect the Razorbacks to fall back out of the SEC's western division race.


Florida (17-8, 6-4)

RPI: 61st (-12), Kenpom: 54th (-11), Sagarin: 46th (-8)
Average RPI of future opponents: 54.67
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 4-3
Record in last five games: 2-3
Projected regular-season record: (19-12, 8-8)

The Gators have one of the toughest ends to February in the conference, and the team has already begun faltering. Too much faltering, and an NCAA tournament bid will slip through their fingers and possible into the SEC West. Trips to Ole Miss, Georgia, and Kentucky should produce one win, and home games against Auburn, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt will likely also only result in a single win.


Georgia (11-12, 3-7)

RPI: 91st (-1), Kenpom: 88th (-5), Sagarin: 93rd (-2)
Average RPI of future opponents: 68.50
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 0-9
Record in last five games: 2-3
Projected regular-season record: (13-16, 5-11)

The Bulldogs have shown vast improvement in everywhere but their record this year, and the going isn't getting easier. The eastern division's top four teams all await Georgia, and two of those are on the road—a place UGA hasn't seen a "W" yet. Out of Alabama at home and LSU on the road, the 'Dawgs should be able to find one more win.


Kentucky (24-1, 9-1)
RPI: 5th (+1), Kenpom: 10th (-4), Sagarin: 5th (+1)
Average RPI of future opponents: 53.00
Road games remaining: 4/6
Record in road games: 4-1
Record in last five games: 5-0
Projected regular-season record: (27-4, 12-4)

The Wildcats' easy wins are off the schedule, and the upcoming six games are all against teams included in the RPI's top 100. Four of the games are also on the road, which makes the going even more difficult for a freshmen-laden team. Trips to Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee along with a home-date against Florida should produce up to three losses for this one-loss team.


South Carolina (14-10, 5-5)

RPI: 72nd (-3), Kenpom: 78th (-1), Sagarin: 72nd (-2)
Average RPI of future opponents: 51.33
Road games remaining: 3/6
Record in road games: 1-7
Record in last five games: 3-2
Projected regular-season record: (16-14, 7-9)

The Gamecocks still have their division's top three teams left on the schedule, and two of those come on the road. Only one game isn't against a team ranked in the RPI's top 100, with the most likely win coming against Alabama at home.

 

Follow me on Twitter @HoopsKnowItAll.

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