Even though I am a huge Ohio State fan, I want to make it abundantly clear that I have tremendous respect for the University of Michigan as a higher institution of learning as well as for its storied football program. Year after year, Michigan has been one of the premier football programs in the country, and its battles with Ohio State have earned thet title of "THE GAME" with the reputation of being the top rivalry in the country. If you haven't done so yet, I highly recommend reading these books on Bo Schembechler. Not only are both books very informative and entertaining, I believe you can truly grasp why Bo Schembechler was Woody Hayes' prize disciple. Even more importantly from a Michigan perspective -- you actually learn the depth of respect and love Bo had for Woody Hayes and how Bo built the Michigan program along the lines of Woody Hayes' Ohio State teams.
Now let me address the subject at hand - Michigan will struggle in 2008. I do not believe they will have a winning record, ending their consecutive bowl appearance at 33. I may be wrong, but even if Michigan does make it to a bowl game, it will not be a New Year's Day bowl game. The probable destination would be the Motor City Bowl.
I can feel the emails lining up as I write this. Let me elaborate and explain why Michigan is going to struggle:
Point 1: The personnel is not in place to run the spread option. Yes, Coach Rodriguez is a good coach. He turned around West Virginia, and he will do a great job at Michigan once he gets his personnel in place to run the spread option offense effectively. Please reread the italicized line again: once he gets his personnel in place. The personnel on hand for multiple generations was recruited to play Bo Schembechler-type football.
Let's look at this key point further. Spread option offense 101: the quarterback gets the snap from center in the shotgun formation and fakes the ball to the running back. This movement will keep the linebacker from committing to the quarterback in the event of a play action pass or if the quarterback keeps the ball himself on a waggle or bootleg around the end. Sounds just like Pat White of West Virginia, right? Here's the problem for Michigan this year -- the probable starting quarterback (Steven Threet) is not very mobile. If I am a linebacker on the opposition, I am going to sell out against the run because I am either going to tackle the running back or get to the quarterback. The lack of a mobile quarterback makes the spread option offense much easier to defend.
If Terrelle Pryor had signed with Michigan this year, the spread option offense would have been that much more effective. Michigan fans point out that incoming recruit Justin Feagin may win the starting job, but that's asking a lot of a true freshman to come into Michigan and lead a brand new offensive scheme that is lacking...
6 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Michael Ashby about 1 year ago
Dude, you are out of your mind.
On your first point: Michigan has a lot more talent than West Virginia did when RR took over. Yes, our offense will be struggling early, but we have some very talented freshman who will contribute early in the season. Pat White(RS) and Steve Slaton were both freshmen when they got their start; look how that turned out.
Your understanding of the read-option is misguided. The QB reads the DE after the snap; if he collapses down to defend the run from the backside, the QB can hold on to it and run with the ball. The reason why RR runs this play from the spread formation is so that there are less guys in the box. In a 4 WR set, you are forced to either 1) play a zone; 2) have 2LBs in the box; or 3) Have 2 safeties and 1 LB in the box. Even with 2 linebackers, the line outnumbers you because the backside DE is left unblocked. It's a game of numbers.
You are right that it's the defense that will determine the outcome of our season. It will have to keep games close and allow our offense to get the kinks worked out; it could get rough early. However, if our defense is as good as most us Michigan fans believe, early games will be close and anything can happen.
So you're picking us to win only ONE more game than did WVU in RR's first season? Back when he had MUCH LESS talent and it was a time when Miami and Virginia Tech were still in the Big East. You can go ahead and assume that we will be a more dangerous team than that Illinois team who marched into your stadium and spanked you.
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Chip Minnich about 1 year ago
Thanks for your reply.
"The QB reads the DE after the snap; if he collapses down to defend the run from the backside, the QB can hold on to it and run with the ball." Again, remember what I said about the immobility of the Michigan QB (probably Threet) - if I do not believe the quarterback can or will run (which is what I am saying is the case because of Threet's limited mobility), the option is easier to defend.
You are a proclaimed Michigan fan - do you remember when Ohio State tried to run the option against Michigan in 1990 with Greg Frey at QB? That's my point - the personnel just does not fit well this coming season.
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Jeff Larsen about 1 year ago
Wow - giving a ton of credit to a horrible Purdue team with a coach that folds when it's important, a MSU coach that is STILL running a team that can't close the deal and lost every bit as much talent as UM, a ND team that - though very talented - hasn't shown it can translate recruiting rankings into W's yet, and a Utah team that hasn't kept their QB healthy in years.
Your description of the spread is not the one RR will use this season if Threet is the starter. Is it the one he used at Tulane? RR doesn't call his playbook from "Spread Football for Dummies". He has tweaked offenses and is considered one of the top offensive INNOVATORS in the country. That means he can take personnel and put them in a position to succeed given their talents. Threet was a 4-star QB who is very intelligent. RR will find a way to adjust the offense for him to make a quick read from the shotgun and hit one of 6 different potential WR's in plenty of space to make a play.
The line is certainly light this year and that's an issue, but quick reads without ball fakes can minimize the impact of that. Yes, Gholston owned Schilling last year. I'm curious how many OL's beat Gholston last year. Not many if I recall. And he's now in the NFL.
As for Feagin potentially coming in and winning the job. I don't see that happening. I see him possibly coming in and being an option to take a dozen snaps per game to mix things up, a la a VERY poor man's Leak and Tebow (because I respect them enough to know Threet and Feagin will never be on the same level). But to say a true freshman can't come in and win the job is to forget exactly what Chad Henne did. It doesn't happen often and we shouldn't expect it (though we will next year somehow), it doesn't mean it can't happen.
You're certainly right that UM will struggle next year and you nailed a lot of the reasons, but you made a rolled ankle look like a Joe Theisman. The severity will not be what you predicted. 4-8 is ND bad, not UM bad. (Oh wait, didn't ND only manage THREE wins?)
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Chip Minnich about 1 year ago
Thank you for your reply. While I agree that Coach Rodriguez is one of the most innovative offensive coaches, and has previously adjusted the talent to fit his scheme, the talent on hand RIGHT NOW - not next year, or two years from now, IS NOT conducive to running the spread. Will he try to put the talent on hand in a position to move the ball as best as they can? Yes, but the personnel is just not matched up well.
If you believe I am the only person who is forecasting struggles for Michigan, let me point out a few others who are thinking along similar lines. The first is Tom Beaver, who works for http://michigan.scout.com/. Tom said that Michigan fans who are thinking a 8,9, 10+ win season are being overly optimistic. In Tom's estimation, if Michigan needs to score more than 21 points in a game, they are in trouble. Will the Michigan defense keep them in the game? Yes, but after a while, the best of defenses gets tired and will give up points eventually if the offense cannot sustain drives.
Another person who feels Michigan will struggle this year is Chris Spielman. Yes, I know Spielman is big-time Ohio State but Spielman also does analysis for ESPN throughout the college football season. Spielman has stated that Michigan will be "lucky" to win four games. I didn't say lucky in my analysis - some of the games you have pointed out (ND, MSU, Purdue) could be the other way, as you pointed out. Would that be good enough for a bowl game? Sure, but nothing like the kind of bowl game Michigan fans are anticipating.
Again, thanks for the reply. If I am wrong, I will be more than happy to admit that I am wrong.
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Jeff Larsen about 1 year ago
I think Michigan fans - the ones I speak to anyhow - are realistic. Nobody is expecting a Jan. 1 bowl game. We've all heard the national critiques by Herbie and Beano predicting 6-6 at best.
But look at the difference between your points. You say they'll win 4 games, then you use Beaver as backup when he says they won't win 8? There's a MASSIVE difference between 4 wins and 8 wins.
I think most UM fans are expecting 7-5. At least that's what they're hoping for. You have to have a winning record.
Also, while I respect Spielman a ton for what he accomplished as a player in Detroit, I don't have nearly enough time or space to detail how often he has been wrong, and just how wrong he's been.
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Chip Minnich about 1 year ago
My primary point with using Tom Beaver as a reference was in how he characterized the offense will struggle. He primarily said if Michigan needs to score more than 21 points, they will be in trouble. Again - I may be wrong. If I am wrong, I will admit that I was wrong. When I look at this team's personnel - when I watched the Michigan spring game highlights - I come to the conclusion that the offense will not be as effective in year one as a lot of Michigan fans hope and believe.
Michigan lost a 4 year starter at quarterback, and are replacing him with someone who has never even take a snap in live game action. They are losing their 4 year starter at running back, with players who are coming off injuries (Carlos Brown) or untested (Sam McGuffie). They have lost both starters at wide receiver. They lost Jake Long and Justin Boren. AND Michigan is putting in a completely new offensive scheme that does not fit the personnel on campus at the moment. In another year, I believe Michigan will be ready to challenge Ohio State for Big Ten dominance, but not this year.
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