Writer’s note: this is the first of a three part series on critical off-seasons for the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, and Dallas Mavericks.
The latest class of NBA bachelors looking for an expensive marriage with a new team underwhelms at best. A cadre of overpriced stars and limited role players declared for free agency by Monday's deadline.
The teams that won this year's youngster-filled draft traded unproven freshmen to get old guys who can play. That would be Kevin McHale's Minnesota Timberwolves, who landed the most undervalued guard/forward hybrid in the NBA. Who knew that McHale would devise a way to pair Mike Miller with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson?
The Portland Trail Blazers stole the evening again and stomped all over it. The Blazers landed the draft's second- or third-best point guard in Jerryd Bayless, depending on who you ask, and managed to snatch explosive reserve Ike Diogu in a trade.
Most mock rookie of the year lists slot Greg Oden at the top and Spanish star Rudy Fernandez in third place. Nate McMillan gets to mesh all of that talent with All-Star Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Who doesn't envy the Blazers' position as a possible future powerhouse?
I can name three teams, and they hail from the same hot and humid state.
The Blazers will make a run at the seventh and eighth playoff spots next season, but they are not ready to contend. Adding Miller makes the Timberwolves a playoff prospect—but Randy Whittman's young bunch has a long route to a championship.
That arduous path includes multiple bumper-to-bumper, three-hour traffic jams, torn-up stretches of highway, faulty directions, and a half tank of gas with no filling station for 1000 miles.
A productive big man next to beastly Big Al, with Miller and Corey Brewer: so, what's the problem?
Let's just say Minnesota fans will not see a championship Love the next few seasons.
Many teams will spend this summer trying to add some veteran toughness to their soft and inexperienced rookie squads. How much can you expect a guy with one year of college to do in the NBA? What happens when 90 percent of the players on the team fit that undesirable mold?
The Supersonics happen—and while Seattle fans fight to keep a 41-year-old team in town, surely they would prefer not to revisit last year's chilling, gruesome 20-62 campaign.
The three Western Conference elitists in the Texas triangle have the opposite problem. The Spurs, Rockets and Mavericks need to win now. This Texas trio did not fill any major roster holes on draft night, and these teams' stars' salaries eat up valuable cap space.
The Blazers can afford to think five years down the road, as can the Timberwolves. The Mavs should wonder if 35-year-old Jason Kidd will still play in five years. He won't.
The Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming pairing has produced zero playoff series wins for the Rockets, and nagging injuries suggest an already narrow championship window is now closing at warp speed.
The Spurs, still the best of the trio, managed to win a Game Seven on the road for the first time in franchise history, but stumbled badly in the conference finals against the Lakers.
Each of these squads can spend between $5 and $6 million, using their mid-level exception, and have few tradeable assets not already part of the franchise's immediate plans. At the very least, none of these teams will be getting Elton Brand—and that is worse news than you think.
Donnie Nelson, Daryl Morey, and R.C. Buford will swelter this summer. To win a title next season, each general manager will need to turn that sweat into an impactful free-agent signing.
Trouble in Texas? You decide.
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS
The Spurs finished seven wins away from a repeat championship—a remarkable feat considering the ridiculous race in the West, and the supposed detrimental age of the core players.
Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili comprise the league's most complete star trio. The Celtics' Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen are in close range after winning a championship, but still need to catch up.
However, offensive offense sunk the Spurs in the conference finals, as it had all year. A five-point quarter against Atlanta, and a 90-64 loss to the Utah Jazz, offer examples of the scoring droughts that plagued the 2007 champions in 2008.
Likely returns:
· Tim Duncan
· Tony Parker
· Manu Ginobili
· Fabricio Oberto
· Kurt Thomas
· Brent Barry
· Jacque Vaughn
· Bruce Bowen
· Ime Udoka
This above roster will not muster enough points to win the rugged Western Conference. The Spurs need instant scoring production in whatever age package remains available on the free agent market. If that player is younger than 25, great.
But it appears Robert Horry and Michael Finley want to return in silver and black uniforms, and that makes Buford's daunting task more difficult.
Finley and Horry showed old age in the playoffs, and sagging production brings retirement closer. The two veterans can assume minuscule regular-season roles and still contribute headiness and know-how in another post season.
No way will Tim Duncan win his fifth ring if Finley starts again. Horry can gripe that Popovich under-utilizes him in the regular season, but he knows it is a lie.
With an opportunity to add a young talent on draft night, the Spurs selected—who? From where?
We know a few things about George Hill. His college is more difficult to say than his name. The Spurs, for once, did not select a project player to stash overseas. He hails from the U.S., a rarity for draft picks in San Antonio.
Mike Monroe from the San Antonio Express-News said Buford and Popovich celebrated when Hill fell to the 26th draft slot. Popovich believes Hill can contribute immediately and will compete with Vaughn to back up Parker.
The Spurs management also believes its second rounders, guard Malik Hairston and forward James Gist, will compete for roster spots at training camp.
Yet, it seems preposterous that three rookies few people knew before draft night will somehow fix the team's frightful scoring woes. The Spurs are right there in the championship hunt, but they need to remove the right.
Unlike the Rockets and Mavericks, the Spurs don't need to prove their core can win a championship. Tim Duncan has already secured a Hall of Fame slot, and Parker and Ginobili—two clutch playoff performers who initially looked like fitting late draft picks—have made strong cases, too.
Leave it to Horry to sum up the Spurs best: "You get greedy. You win one championship and then you want another and another. Every year is your year."
Free agent outlook:
The Spurs did not pass a figurative torch to the Lakers after losing in the conference finals, and the reign is not over. That makes Buford's offseason work the toughest of his Spurs tenure.
He must use an unattractive MLE and lure a 10- to 15-point scorer, who can bolster bench production and allow Ginobili to start.
The one who makes the most sense for the Spurs doesn't have any. Maybe Popovich can reach J.R. Smith the same way he did Stephen Jackson.
Smith is the sort of two/three hybrid the Spurs could use to spell Ginobili when he cannot play, or back up Udoka and Bowen when they are not scoring.
Will the anti-human, "unwilling defender" change his style for a better chance at a championship ring? Stay tuned.
The Spurs have previously expressed interest in Toronto Raptors guard Carlos Delfino and he would prove a nice addition. Allowing Ginobili to play with more of his Argentine teammates is never a bad thing.
Before the Spurs can beckon free agents from other squads, they must deal with a few on their own roster:
· Brent Barry
· Michael Finley
· Robert Horry
· Kurt Thomas
The Spurs sent Barry to Seattle to acquire defensive banger Thomas, and then retained the sharpshooter after a 30-day wait. They musn't let Barry get away again. The three-point marksman opted out of his contract, and the Houston Chronicle reported the Rockets want him. His 23-point sizzler in Game Four of the conference finals was no fluke.
With Tim Duncan controlling the middle, the Spurs need shooters and Barry is their best.
Tiago Splitter, the Spurs first round pick in the 2007 draft, decided to ditch the NBA for two more seasons so he can rake in triple the dough. That makes resigning Thomas, who helped the Spurs handle Shaquille O' Neal in the five-game Phoenix series, a priority.
Perhaps Buford's squad is 10-15 points per game away from winning the West again. The Lakers will not have as easy a time with the four-time champions if Ginobili is healthy next season, with a dominant Duncan and driving Parker—but can the Spurs bank on that to win number five?
If they want to get there again in the Duncan era, as the Celtics just did for the first time since 1986, the answer is no.
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2 months ago
The Spurs are purportedly interested in Corey Maggette, who averaged 22 ppg last year, they could only offer him the mid-level exception but his only offer so far has been the exception, coming from Boston. Maggette would be a good option if only for his great scoring ability, good idea by Buford but he'll either go for the money from a team with cap space or take Boston's mid-level exception since they have a better shot at the championship in the weaker East and they are last year's champ. "I've made a lot of money in my career and now I want to win" Maggette said (or at least something to that effect) so the Spurs may have found a cure to their offensive woes if they can sell themselves better than Boston or a team with money.
2 months ago
The Spurs have been interested in Maggette for years, and come to think of it, I have no idea why I didn't mention him in the above article.
Maggette would be a dream addition and doesn't carry quite the personal baggage that Smith does. I'm still not convinced when this guy says he wants nothing more than to join a winning team. If Maggette means what he says, then the Spurs would prove a great fit.
The Spurs tried in the 2007-07 season to land Maggette in a cloudy deal that included Brent Barry and Beno Udrih. Obviously, that deal fell apart.
The Spurs need a hybrid two/three and I would much rather see Maggette in a Spur uniform than Smith.
2 months ago
Maggette reportedly has agreed to the Spurs full mid-level exception (around $5.8 million).
2 months ago
Spurs are done. Next year is their last chance to win another one. After that its over
from 2 months ago
Yeah, I've never heard THAT one before.
The Spurs have a good shot to sign Maggette, but their main competition will be the Magic if they want him; it'll come down to whether he wants to win a title (in which case he should come to the Spurs), or if he wants to play for his hometown Magic. The Spurs have to pull out all the stops to sign him, as the gap in talent between him and J.R. Smith is quite large. If the Spurs can come back with a rotation of Oberto, Duncan, Bowen, Maggette, Parker, Ginobili, George Hill, Udoka, and Thomas, the Spurs would be as much a threat to win the title next year as anyone; without him, the Spurs will have trouble having enough young, energetic legs to keep up in the west.
I wouldn't list Thomas and Barry as "probable" returns; sounds to me like there is a very good chance another team might bring them in.
2 months ago
Barry and Thomas may not return but the Spurs want them and need them.
It looks like Barry will seriously consider joining one of the other teams that courted him this spring. Thomas, on the other hand, likes his role with the Spurs, and as I said above, Tiago Splitter's delayed arrival makes signing him imperative.
The Spurs need Thomas as much as they would need Maggette to win another championship. The only "report" I see of Maggette accepting the Spurs MLE is on hoopsworld.com. That articles lists "multiple reports."
Where are these multiple reports? Sounds to me like somebody is blowing smoke up somebody else's ass. With all the offers he will attract, I cannot believe that he has already settled for the Spurs.
However, if the guy has any sense and wants to win, he will head for San Antonio.
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