Lineup Change Needed?

In last year’s postseason, one that featured a march to the World Series title, the trio of David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Mike Lowell had plenty of RBI opportunities and were able to cash in. The table was set by the top two hitters in the lineup, one who stayed red hot through the entire postseason, and one that lit up when the Red Sox backs were up against the wall and cranked the biggest homer of the ALCS. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis sat atop the lineup and delivered.

Of course, another player that emerged was rookie Jacoby Ellsbury. The sensational speedster replaced the rotting Coco Crisp and added two immediate threats to the order: a productive bat and otherworldly speed. He also displayed a knack for having the same batting eye many Red Sox prospects before him so gracefully possessed, a mark of the Theo era of building the farm system through the same mold. Ellsbury was supposed to naturally make the transition to the leadoff spot in the majors in 2008.

In 2007, Ellsbury finished with a line of .353/.394/.509 in 116 AB with 9/9 SB. He was sensational and we all knew he wouldn’t keep that torrid pace up. But we expected .300/.380/.420, right?

In 2008, with 273 AB under his belt, Ellsbury has been below expectation: .271/.346/.385. In April he was rookie of the year Jacoby, .282/.402/.451, and stress that outstanding .402 OBP. In May, he dipped a tad, finishing at .281/.375/.396, with the slugging down but the OBP still acceptable. In June, Ellsbury hit the rookie wall: .245/.265/.327. With his flashing speed, OBP is even more important. In June, he managed just three walks in the entire month.

I pose this question: Would the lineup be stronger with Ellsbury hitting lower in the order? Would a lineup of Youkilis-Pedroia-Ortiz-Ramirez-Lowell-Drew-Ellsbury-Varitek-Lugo be more productive for the stretch run? Or is the threat of Ellsbury stealing bases enough to offset hitting struggles and enough to keep him at the top of the order? Julio Lugo has a stronger OBP at this point.

Ellsbury is learning the lesson that you cannot steal first base. Pitchers are challenging him with hard stuff away and he’s been fouling it off, then hitting slow rollers on off-speed pitches. They realize walking Ellsbury is equivalent to giving up a double, essentially.

Kevin Youkilis on the season: .308/.375/.533, 13 HR, 56/28 K/BB. Would the lineup be better suited with Youkilis back in the #2 spot where he shone in October? He finished 2007 with a .907 OPS in that slot.

Dustin Pedroia on the season: .303/.348/.439, 8 HR, 31/22 K/BB. Should he find his way back to the leadoff spot sooner than later?

I ask you all these questions. More likely than not, Francona will stick with Ellsbury atop the lineup to keep his confidence afloat, because he has a long leash with his players (understandably and successfully thus far during his tenure), and because he likes Ellsbury’s speed atop the order. His speed alone contributed to three infield hits and three Rays errors tonight. But at what point is hitting Youkilis and Pedroia one and two the best for the team setting up Ortiz and Ramirez?