Super Bowl XLV Odds: The Colts Are Favorites Once Again

Now that Super Bowl XLIV is in the past, we can look ahead to next year's game. Before the 2009 season, the Saints were in the league's bottom third of teams likely to get to the Super Bowl. Well, look how that turned out.

In recent years, teams in the Super Bowl have come out of virtually nowhere to make the big game. Teams rising from the ashes to the Super Bowl is a tribute to competitive balance in the NFL that began with the realization of the salary cap and revenue sharing.

Will the trend continue for the 2010 season? It only took 24 hours for the odds to come out for the favorites to reach Super Bowl XLV in Dallas. Which teams possess the best and worst odds? How can the teams beat the odds? How could the odds fail the favorites? Look inside to find out.

(Odds were taken from Bodog.com)

Arizona Cardinals (35-1)

The odds would favor the Cardinals more if not for the retirement of Kurt Warner. Now Matt Leinart is the man in charge of keeping the Cardinals recent run of success alive. Then there is the uncertainty about Anquan Boldin's future in Arizona and continued concerns about the defense.

Luckily for the Cardinals, the NFC West is likely to remain a soft division that is ripe for the taking if they do not take a big step backwards.

They've got a shot if...Matt Leinart's potential is realized, Beanie Wells improves on a strong rookie season, and they add a defensive play maker

They've got NO shot if...Matt Leinart falls on his face and the quarterback position is a major source of angst throughout the season.

Baltimore Ravens (20-1)

The odds bestowed on the Ravens is a fair bet. The Ravens are not perennial contenders but their pedigree — and their defense — gives them the ability to make a deep playoff run in any given season. John Harbaugh is 2-for-2 in taking Baltimore to the playoffs and quarterback Joe Flacco is only getting stronger.

If All-Pro safety Ed Reed does indeed hang up his spikes, it could open a hole in the Ravens defense. However, the Ravens are led by the seemingly ageless Ray Lewis and that defense has shown no signs of slowing down.

One area that needs to be filled is at receiver. The Ravens need to add a weapon for Joe Flacco or the offense will sputter like it did too often in 2009.

They have a shot if...the Ravens get Flacco a big weapon and he continues to throw for 3,500+ yards and the defense is its typical stone cold self.

They have NO shot if...the defense all of a sudden ages, they miss Ed Reed more than they thought, and the running game slows down.

Buffalo Bills (100-1)

The Bills did not make the postseason once in the last decade and there are few signs that streak will change in 2010. The defense wasn't terrible (19th in '09), but the 30th ranked offense cannot repeat.

Certainly it is no surprise that five of the worst teams in the NFL finished in the bottom five in offense last season. If the Bills have any hope of becoming a contender, the offense has to get in gear.

They have a shot if...They settle the quarterback situation. Trent Edwards was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick late in the season, but right now neither looks like the answer. It all starts at the QB position in the NFL nowadays, and right now there is little to believe in either guy under center.

They have NO shot if...The Bills continue business as usual. Which is to say, they play sloppy, inconsistent ball, lose laughable games (6-3 loss to the Browns comes to mind).

Atlanta Falcons (30-1)

The Falcons went 11-5 and reached the playoffs in 2008, but took a step back with a 9-7 finish in 2009. That may actually bode well for the Falcons and quarterback Matt Ryan, who can shake off his sophomore season and enter camp with high confidence.

The Falcons need more production out of their 21st ranked defense, one that ranked 28th against the pass in 2009. The Falcons remain a work in progress and have made positive strides that could play big in 2010.

They have a shot if...Ryan returns to, or exceeds, his 2008 form, the defense can elevate its overall position, and they can take at least one game from the Saints.

They have NO shot if...he pass defense remains a gaping hole and they mirror the inconsistencies of 2009.

Carolina Panthers (40-1)

Much like the Bills, the Panthers have to make a decision at quarterback. Jake Delhomme is the reigning, but horribly erratic starter while Matt Moore is still young and somewhat unproven.

However, the Panthers have the running game to stay in any game. How Julius Peppers' eventual departures affects a defense ranked eighth in the league in 2009 is another storyline to watch.

They have a shot if...Either Delhomme or Moore puts his mark on the position and the Panthers get back to combination attack of smash-mouth running and deep threat passing that led them to a 12-4 record in 2008.

They have NO shot if...Delhomme returns as starter and he continues his wayward performances. Or, Moore ascends to the starting position and is nothing more than a wet-behind-the-ears quarterback.

Chicago Bears (35-1)

The Bears' fortunes may come down to whether quarterback Jay Culter can play with his head on straight. Repeated multiple-interception games must become a thing of the past if the Bears are to seriously contend with the Vikings in the NFC North let alone for a Super Bowl bid.

Additionally, the Bears need Brian Urlacher back at 100 percent and making an impact on the field. The Bears need him to return to his 2006 form and get the mean streak back in the Bears defense.

They have a shot if...Cutler finally meets the promise that has been leveled on him by seemingly every sports media outlet in the country. To do that, the Bears will require another play maker (Brandon Marshall?)

They have NO shot if...Cutler repeats his 2009 performance and throws 26 interceptions. The Bears are going no where if their quarterback is as careless with the ball as he was during his first season in Chicago.

Cincinnati Bengals (30-1)

Can the Bengals do something they have not done in franchise history and make back-to-back postseason appearances? Well, the Bengals fortunes rely entirely on that man, Carson Palmer. The Bengals raced to a 9-3 start but sputtered to the finish line and an AFC North crown.

Palmer's issues are mysterious. There is no knowledge of an injury, but his subpar performances were at best inconsistent and at worst just mind-boggling. Yes, the Bengals need another receiver to line up across Chad Ochocinco, but Palmer simply cannot disappear for stretches at a time like he did in 2009.

They have a shot if...Palmer plays like he did earlier in his career when he was one of the best in the league. Also, the Bengals need Cedric Benson to repeat his eye-opening 2009 season in which he was one of the biggest individual surprises across the NFL.

They have NO shot if...well, like I said, the Bengals have never made back-to-back playoff appearances so the deck is already stacked against them. But if Palmer plays the way he did over the final four to six weeks of the season right out of the gate, it could be a very tough season in Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (100-1)

Where to start with the Browns? The Browns won four games at the end of the season to install a sense of confidence, but can that confidence carry over? Team president Mike Holmgren retained head coach Eric Mangini, but he will not stand for the revolving door at quarterback. Until that issue is settled and vastly improve their 31st ranked defense, the Browns will flounder.

The have a shot if...Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson become Peyton Manning-like? Heck, even if one of them becomes Eli Manning.

They have NO shot if...they maintain the status quo at quarterback and the defense continues to stink up the joint.

Dallas Cowboys (12-1)

The Cowboys were unceremoniously dispatched in the NFC Divisional Round, but should feel very positive about the year they had. The Cowboys are the defending NFC East champs and Tony Romo comes off one of the best seasons of his career. Combine that with a defense that got nastier by the week and the Cowboys have the ingredients for a title run.

They have a shot if...The Tony Romo we saw in December is the same Tony Romo from the Week 1 to 17, the Cowboys' three-headed running attack remains a batter ram and Jay Ratliff leads a rising a defense.

They have NO shot if...the Cowboys' December performances regresses to their historical lows.

Denver Broncos (50-1)

The Broncos got off to a fast start, but faded badly down the stretch and lost six of their last eight games to miss the playoffs. Kyle Orton appears to be a suitable stop gap at quarterback, but even inside the Denver front office they must know he isn't the long term answer at quarterback.

They will have a shot if...They get off to a fast start, Orton consistently plays at a high level and they get the best of the Chargers.

They have NO shot if...the Broncos trade away Brandon Marshall and the offense becomes one dimensional.

Detroit Lions (100-1)

The Lions made progress in 2009—they actually won two games after going 0-16 the previous season. The Lions are still young and rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford was treated like a punching bag at times last season. The Super Bowl shouldn't even be on their horizon right now. Steady improvements in all facets of the game and keeping Stafford healthy are the top priorities.

They have a shot if...every NFC North team suffers catastrophic injuries to their roster.

They have NO shot if...they are the Lions. They have never been to a Super Bowl and haven't been to a conference title game since the 1991 season.

Green Bay Packers (12-1)

Aaron Rodgers is looking like the real deal and the guy who will be under center in Green Bay for the next decade. Rodgers looks like a perennial 4,000-yard passer and the Packers running attack is plenty enough to compliment their weapons at receiver. The Packers posted the second best point differential in the league. If they can continue, that trend the will get to the playoffs.

They have a shot if...They don't give up 51 points in a playoff game again. The Packers finished with the second best defense in the NFL, but one wouldn't know it after the way the Cardinals turned the unit into Swiss cheese.

They have NO shot if...Rodgers goes down or the defense we saw in the Wild Card game against Arizona becomes the norm.

Indianapolis Colts (13-2)

The Colts, not the Saints, are the favorites to win the Super Bowl against the odds. While the argument holds water that the Super Bowl champion should be the odds favorite, it's difficult to go against the Colts. They have won 12-plus games in every season since 2003 and reached two of the last four Super Bowls.

They have a shot if...as long as No. 18 is under center and Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie keep playing at a high level alongside the returning Anthony Gonzalez.

They have NO shot if...Peyton Manning loses his iron-man mystique and goes down for a prolonged period of time.

Houston Texans (35-1)

The Texans registered their first above-.500 season in franchise history in 2009. Matt Schaub is becoming of the most efficient passers in the NFL, leading Houston to the top-ranked passing offense in the league last season.

The Texans are on the rise, but they desperately need to get the postseason monkey off their back. They are a sexy sleeper pick every year, but continue to disappoint prognosticators.

They have a shot if...Schaub continues to grow and they do not flame out against divisional opponents. The Texans went 1-5 versus the AFC South in 2009. If they want to finally get to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, they have to win in the division.

They have NO shot if...they can't improve on a ghastly divisional record and can't pick up a clutch win at some point during the season. The team needs to learn how to win big games.

Jacksonville Jaguars (50-1)

The Jaguars were in playoff position at the three-quarter gate in 2009, but flamed out by losing their last four games to finish 7-9 in the competitive AFC South. The Jaguars can look good one week and look terrible the next. They are the model of inconsistency in the NFL and thus are middle of the road against the odds.

They have a shot if...they can improve the 23rd ranked defense in the NFL and can superior get play from quarterback David Garrard, who received a massive contract before the 2008 season.

They have NO shot if...the Jaguars remain inconsistent, suffer bad losses, and Garrard waivers from week to week.

Kansas City Chiefs (100-1)

The Chiefs traded for and signed quarterback Matt Cassel to a huge deal prior to the 2009 season. In return, the Chiefs got multiple injuries to their starting quarterback and two five-game losing streaks in the same season for a 4-12 finish.

Team president Scott Pioli is trying to establish the Patriots West with the hire of Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and Cassel. Will it work?

They have a shot if...Charlie Weis can implement a system that worked for Cassel in his last season in New England and helped him turn into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.

They have NO shot if...The Chiefs defense rank 30th in the league like last season. They are first round busts all along the defensive line and they have yet another defense coordinator.

Miami Dolphins (45-1)

The Dolphins came back to Earth in 2009 with a 7-9 finish. However, Chad Henne has established himself as the franchise quarterback and that is an important first step for the Dolphins who are still building their team identity. They are a team on the rise, but are still a few pieces away from a Super Bowl run.

They have a shot if...Henne has a fantastic season, they get back Ronnie Brown healthy and productive, and the defense gets younger and stronger.

They have NO shot if...they again lose Brown to injury and the defense falls apart on them.

Minnesota Vikings (12-1)

The Vikings were one bad pass away from the Super Bowl before Brett Favre threw it all away. Nonetheless, they have talent all over the field to make another deep run. What will sway the Vikings odds one way or another by Week 1 is the future at the quarterback position.

They have a shot if...Brett Favre returns and plays at the level he did in 2009. Or, Favre leaves and the Vikings acquire an established veteran who can captain the Vikings ship.

They have NO shot if...Favre leaves and the Vikings are forced to turn to Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels for 16 weeks.

New England Patriots (10-1)

Tom Brady came back from his knee injury had a strong season. Yet, something still seemed off with Brady and the Patriots as a whole. The defense was shaky at best in 2009 and is still a big question mark going into 2010. Wes Welker's injury is another big question mark the Patriots will face.

They have a shot if...Brady and Randy Moss return to their pre-injury selves and carry the Patriots on their back. That may be the Patriots' best shot at getting to Dallas next February.

They have NO shot if...Moss continues to play at his own desire, Brady regresses in any way and the defense remains an enigma. As of now, Bill Belichick is going WITHOUT any coordinators. It's all on your plate, Bill.

New Orleans Saints (10-1)

The Saints check in at 10-1 as they attempt to defend their new crown. The Saints blitzed to 13-0 before hitting a rocky road at the end of the regular season. Nevertheless, it all came together for New Orleans, whose Super Bowl run was not to be denied.

They have a shot if...The cards all fall together like it did in the 2009 postseason. There is a reason why only one team has repeated in this decade. It's just THAT hard to have everything fall together the same way two seasons in a row.

They have NO shot if...Brees goes down to injury. He can carry the team on his shoulders, but if he's gone, the Saints chances go down with him.

New York Giants (20-1)

Eli Manning enters 2010 fresh off the best season of his career and the Giants young stable receivers are quickly learning on the job. A porous defense and a subpar running game did the Giants in following a 5-0 start in 2009.

They will have a shot if...Brandon Jacobs and his supporting cast can return to their bruising ways of 2007 and 2008 and the defense gets its act together. The Giants have the talent to make a run, but not if the defense plays with its head in the sand like it did for much of 2009.

They will have NO shot if...the defense remains a revolving door like it did for the last ten weeks of the season. The Giants played without spirit or pride for the last two months of the season. If they continue to play soft and without energy, they will get run over again.

New York Jets (25-1)

The Jets were one of those teams to come out of nowhere in 2009. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez did his best to keep the offense in order while the Jets defense blitzed their way to a top ranking and carried the Jets to an AFC Championship Game berth. Sanchez could go bigger in 2010 or endure a sophomore slump. Either way, the Jets need to bring the heat on D like they did in 2009.

They have a shot if...Sanchez continues to take big steps and can move into an effective play maker and not just make the safe play for 16 weeks. They also need the defense to remain the shock and awe unit that dominated two playoff games.

They have NO shot if...for some reason the defense backslides and is marginalized, and Sanchez endures a painful second season.

Oakland Raiders (100-1)

Oakland scored a number of surprising upsets in 2009, but does anyone really believe in this team? Jamarcus Russell is still a guessing game, but the defense is better than given credit for.

They have a shot if...Russell takes HUGE strides in 2010 and can actually post some big numbers. Darren McFadden becomes the top ten pick the club used on him, and the Raiders defense answers the bell week in, week out.

They have NO shot if...Russell continues to sputter and looks like he does not belong on an NFL field.

Philadelphia Eagles (16-1)

The Eagles were in the driver's seat in the NFC East, but a late season swoon headlined by the absence of Brian Westbrook made for an ugly final two weeks of the season. The Eagles looked completely lost in back-to-back match-ups against the Cowboys and once again the vultures are swirling over Donovan McNabb and head coach Andy Reid.

They have a shot if...Running back LeSean McCoy has a breakout season and can fill the void left by Westbrook both on the ground and as a receiver weapon out of the backfield.

They have NO shot if...the running game struggles, McNabb looks like a washed up quarterback and the struggles at the linebacker position widen a hole in the defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)

The Steelers became the second team this decade to win the Super Bowl and fail to reach the postseason the following season. However, the culture of winning is still strong in Pittsburgh and the defense and Roethlisberger should do enough to keep the team in contention.

They have a shot if...They turn around a disappointing 2-4 record in the AFC North from 2009. The running game comes back to life and Santonio Holmes continues his development into an elite, number one receiver.

They have NO shot if...Roethlisberger remains a punching bag in the backfield and they fail to resurrect a power running game.

San Diego Chargers (8-1)

The Chargers are the big dogs in the AFC West and that should remain the same in 2010. LaDanian Tomlinson has likely played his last game for the Bolts, but Rivers is now the man in charge and his receivers make the offense one of the best in the NFL.

They have a shot if...they rebuild the running game with youth and Rivers remains a Pro Bowl quarterback in 2010. They get out of their own way in the playoffs and end the postseason disappointment.

They have NO shot if...they balk at another postseason opportunity which includes yet another home playoff loss.

San Francisco 49ers (45-1)

The 49ers are another sexy sleeper year in, year out but have failed to deliver. Mike Singletary has the team headed in the right direction, but it is tough to be a believer in San Francisco until they show otherwise.

They have a shot if...Quarterback Alex Smith takes charge of the 49ers offense and brings a real threat in the passing game to back up running back Frank Gore.

They have NO shot if...opponents can continue to stack the box against Gore while Smith remains a guessing game from week to week.

Seattle Seahawks (45-1)

The Seahawks have backslid in the NFC over the last two seasons and now have more questions than answers. Enter Pete Carroll to bring a new attitude and culture to the Seahawks. Carroll may get it done down the road, but not year one.

They have a shot if...Matt Hasselbeck takes a visit to the fountain of youth and they find a way to improve the offensive line.

They have NO shot if...they lack play makers on offense and leave the defense on the field too long throughout the season.

St. Louis Rams (100-1)

The Rams are the worst team in the NFL and the ship isn't turning around in one season. The Dolphins went from 1-15 to the playoffs in 2008, but lightning won't strike twice.

They have a shot if...Steven Jackson runs for 2,000 yards and a rookie quarterback brings new life to the team.

They have NO shot if...they're the Rams. The mountain is already 20,000 feet tall and all they have is a pick ax.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (100-1)

The Buccaneers are almost in as bad shape as the Rams, but quarterback Josh Freeman has them ahead on the curve. They are smack in the middle of a rebuilding process and are far from contenders.

They have a shot if...Freeman has a monster sophomore season where everything clicks and can take over while being backed by a rock solid defense.

They have NO shot if...they don't protect Freeman and the defense continues to rediscover its identity.

Tennessee Titans (25-1)

The Titans turned a corner when Vince Young played the best ball of his career, digging the Titans out of an 0-6 hole. The Titans can jockey their way into playoff contention next season, but something has to be done about the 28th ranked defense.

They have a shot if...Young continues to improve on his impressive second half to 2009 and the defense regains its form from the 13-3 season.

They have NO shot if...Young regresses and the defense gives up huge chunks of yardage on a weekly basis.

Washington Redskins (50-1)

The Redskins brought in Mike Shanahan to revamp the franchise that fell on his face under Jim Zorn. Shanahan has a project in quarterback Jason Campbell, but the 10th ranked defense in the league gives him a solid base to build on.

They have a shot if...Shanahan transforms Campbell into a top flight quarterback and the Redskins actually get meaningful wins through the passing game.

They have NO shot if...the Redskins lose their running game and continue their position as the doormat of the NFC East.