Recently I did an analysis of Urban Meyer's record at Florida, even though he's only been there for three years. It's not long enough to make lasting conclusions, but it's enough to get some general ideas about what has happened and where he's going.
There is another coach though who joined the SEC at the same time, yet is overshadowed by Meyer when it comes to discussions of the conference's best coach.
He has been to one more conference title game and has a national title, too. But rather than be singled out by name for excellence, he's almost always lumped in with the group of the five SEC coaches who have won a national title.
Life has certainly been interesting at LSU for Les Miles.
His hiring was widely questioned, and for good reason. His best record at Oklahoma State was 9-4, he came into Baton Rouge off of a 7-5 year, and his reputation was mainly built on two improbable upsets of Oklahoma.
Shortly before his debut, Hurricane Katrina struck and football became the least of anyone’s worries in Louisiana.
Despite the adversity he led his 2005 squad to a 10-1 regular season, losing only in overtime to Tennessee in a game postponed by Hurricane Rita. After losing the SEC title game to Georgia, his Tigers hammered the Miami Hurricanes 40-3 in the Peach Bowl in a delicious bit of ironic symbolism.
Even after winning the 2007 national championship, some doubters still remain. Many of the stars of that 2007 team—guys like Glenn Dorsey, Matt Flynn, Jacob Hester, and Early Doucet—were Nick Saban recruits.
That 2007 team also lost two games, leading some to point out that, “You can’t spell Les Miles without two Ls.” On top of that, the architect of his fearsome Tiger defenses, Bo Pelini, has left to take over at Nebraska.
Whatever you think of his time before joining or his future at LSU, you can’t help but be impressed by the records he has posted there so far. His 2005 game against Appalachian State has been omitted in keeping with the policy of only analyzing I-A competition.
Here it is broken down by site:
| Site | Wins | Losses | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 18 | 2 | 20 |
| Away | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| Neutral | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Bowls | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Totals | 33 | 6 | 39 |
The neutral site games are SEC title games.
A winning percentage of .850 over three years is impressive no matter how you slice it. The three bowl wins are more impressive when you consider they were by 37, 27, and 14 points. Both of the home losses came in overtime games, and the two road losses in 2006 were to Florida and Auburn teams that combined to go 24-3 on the year.
Here is Miles’ record broken down by tier. As always, first tier opponents are teams that had a winning percentage of .750 or better, second tier were .500 to .749, third tier opponents were .250 to .499, and fourth tier opponents were .249 and below.
| Tier | Wins | Losses | Pct. | Avg. Scored | Avg. Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | 7 | 3 | .700 | 25 | 16 |
| Second | 12 | 2 | .857 | 37 | 21 |
| Third | 13 | 1 | .929 | 37 | 12 |
| Fourth | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 56 | 3 |
Miles has had a first tier team each year, so the three losses within that tier are understandable. They were to basically equal or better teams.
The other three losses were 5-6 to Tennessee in 2005, 8-5 to Kentucky in 2007, and 8-5 to Arkansas in 2007. The common thread that binds these games together, besides being losses to lesser teams, is that they all were overtime losses.
That means Miles is a few well-placed field goals away from being an eye-popping 36-3 over his first three years with perhaps a third BCS appearance in ’05. Given his struggles in overtime so far, it’s no surprise that Miles coined the “undefeated in regulation” doctrine last year.
It's likely that the Miles/Meyer comparison will go on for quite some time since both appear to be at their current schools for the long haul and both have had so much early success.
Miles has had a slight upper hand so far, mainly because while Ron Zook left the cupboards full at Florida, Saban left an embarrassment of riches for his successor when he bolted for the NFL.
Periodically, the argument will arise about the pecking order of coaches in the SEC. Before you instinctively put Urban Meyer over Les Miles, just think about his record so far, because it's really, really good.
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3 months ago
As far as schemes and overall coaching effectiveness goes, I think Urban Meyer is a far superior coach. His innovative spread system has become emulated by programs across the land. Once regarded as a high school system by some, everyone is copying Coach Meyer - even in the recruiting process where smaller, faster recruits are heavily sought after.
But as far as recruiting athletes goes, few can argue against Les Miles and the talent that he brings yearly into Baton Rouge. Plus, as you pointed out, Miles has a great record and a national championship on his resume.
from 3 months ago
I would tend to agree, but the bottom line is always winning. Miles has done an excellent job of that so far.
3 months ago
great read, david!!
3 months ago
Agree with Justin, good read. Liked the format. Really opens your eyes to some important facts.
3 months ago
I'm from Oklahoma and an OSU cowboy, you are right bottome line is winning and what he did for are program was win. But he did it with someone elses recruits to, and when his recruits came around they went back down to around .500. So it is going to be interesting to see what he can do with his established recruits, not that any he has brought in to his power house are bad at all.
3 months ago
Also, Miles has a winning record head to head against Urban Meyer (2-1).
3 months ago
But that will likely go to 2-2 this year. Just sayin.
3 months ago
Good stuff! I'm not a Les Miles fan because he does get lucky a lot. But I would rather be lucky than good any day of the week...and besides, Les is a helluva coach. He's rough around the edges, but who cares? he's got game!
3 months ago
Excellent read David. Very nice breakdown of quality wins!
3 months ago
Another great article on an elite coach, David.
It may be blasphemy, but I really like Les Miles. As long as he's not playing my Gators. His record speaks volumes, but his press conference before the SEC championship game, while lampooned by some, was spectacular in my book.
He's got the win-loss record and he's got a national championship. He seems very supportive of his players off the field and confident in their abilities on the field. Whether or not your agree with his play calls, everyone has to agree he's an exciting in-game coach.
People talk about him winning with Saban's recruits, but by 2007 those players had been coached by Miles for three years. You're fooling yourself if you say that they weren't "his team." Besides that, he's held his own as a recruiter, so other than Pelini's departure I don't see any reason to think they'll tail off too much over time.
3 months ago
james, great post.
the thing about miles is, people don't want to believe he's a good coach.
he won a nc three years removed from saban but when tressel, stoops, and meyer win a nc two years removed, those guys are great coaches.
when les gambles he gets lucky, but when tubby does it, he's a river boat gambler.
when les calls a trick play he's crazy, when spurrier does it, he's an offensive genius.
with les, it's all about perception and i stick by my guns when i say, his record will come back down to earth when he stops being underestimated, but that's not gonna happen any time soon.
if if the tigers lose three or four games this year(and they probably will), miles will be called a fraud or a bad coach and people will forget that when saban was here he had three 3 loss seasons and one 4 loss season (in addition to his 1 loss NC season).
but saban is a god, and miles is a little kid in daddy's clothing, right?
3 months ago
Florida had a top three recruiting class this year and the number one class two years in a row. Florida had talent last year. More than enough. Percy Harvin? Tebow? And they lost to Michigan (who lost to whom? yeah...). Ol Urban won his championship in his second year. He did not recruit any of the starters. Zook recruited Leak, and that stout defense. Les Miles won his championship many years after his third year. I would argue he recruited more of the team.
from 3 months ago
It was the defense that cost Florida the game against Michigan, not Harvin and Tebow and the offense. The defense was decimated by graduation and players leaving early, and the whole team overall was young. There were only 12 seniors, and about half were either walk-ons or never played.
I already covered this issue in the piece above: "While Ron Zook left the cupboards full at Florida, Saban left an embarrassment of riches for his successor when he bolted for the NFL." Miles walked into depth at LSU the likes of which Meyer just simply did not have.
3 months ago
People keep making comments like "Les is just lucky", "Les wins win Nick's players", and "Les takes chances and is reckless". I have three responses.
1. “I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” -- Thomas Jefferson
2. Les went 11-2 in 2005 with the team that Nick went 9-3 with, despite having 3 games moved because of the hurricanes. Only 17 players on the 85-man roster were Nick's recruits on last years national championship team--only 7 redshirt seniors remain, none of whom ever played a down for Saban. Nick's recruits averaged 3.6 stars in his last 3 years at LSU--Les' recruits averaged 3.8 stars . . . there ain't going to be a drop-off in talent when Nick's last players are gone this season.
3. Les went for it on 4th down a lot last season and has been called foolish and reckless by some. But consider that LSU was 81.3% on 4th-down conversions last year, #1 in the country. Any coach with an offense like that who DIDN'T go for it would be a foolish coach.
"Fortune favors the bold" -- Virgil
3 months ago
Bottom line, Miles has been a good coach with great talent. Of course, he's had better records than Saban did. Saban lost 3 games a year.
You have to give Miles is credit, but let's see what his next 3 years look like before we decide if he's on of the best coaches in the nation.
3 months ago
Great article. Les Miles is a great coach and made some of the gutsiest calls of any coach in America in 07. He never blinked on 4th and 1 all season. He just sent in the play and believed his team would get the first down.
The LSU close wins against Florida, Auburn and Alabama were exciting. The losses in 3 OTs to Kentucky and Arkansas were equally thrilling.
There is something about having great players that gives a coach a lot of confidence.
JH
www.SECsportsReport.com
3 months ago
Great article.
I can't stand when people say his record is inflated because he won with someone else's players. What was he supposed to do? Not win? Frank Solich didn't win a national title with Tom Osborne's players, Butch Davis didn't win a national title with Dennis Erikson's players and Ron Zook didn't win with Steve Spurrier's.
3 months ago
Les Miles is just winning. He's done a good job in some tough circumstances with the Hurricane situation. He could be judged by how he does against Saban. Lot of bitterness there, I don't think the LSU fans can let it go, they'll demand victory more than 50% of the time. If Saban gets the Tide up and running that could be tough to do.
There's a "dripping rumor" that just won't go away and that is Andy Reed steps down in Philly this December, Jon Gruden takes over the Eagles, Urban Meyer goes to Tampa Bay, and Mike Leach comes to Gainesville. Just passing along " a grassy knoll shooter" rumor I've heard in the past month. Probably nothing to it.
from 3 months ago
There's way too many dominoes in that scenario for me to believe at first glance. I don't think Gruden is that unhappy in Tampa to flee to the Eagles since he has Bruce Allen running personnel and six QBs to play with. Also, Leach has no ties to the east coast at all, so as fun as it would be to have him in Gainesville he's never coming. Plus, Urban Meyer will never coach in the NFL; he loves the college game too much.
3 months ago
Can you imagine Leach with the athletes of Florida? He could get 100 on someone depending on the opponent.
I agree about too many scenarios have to fall in to place, probably "somebody said something to somebody" and it got repeated, then took off.
from 3 months ago
I would love to see Leach in a big college football program, if only because the number of widely-circulated quotes we'd get from him would increase exponentially.
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