With a 5-4 victory last night over the Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Sox in the AL East standings. Although they have played well against top competition, I still don't believe they will win the division. Here are five reasons why:
1. Boston Red Sox
I know they lost to the Rays last night, but they are still 6-4 against them on the season. The Red Sox obviously have so much more experience and I think a three-game set this September in Boston will show that. The Red Sox organization just needs to make sure Manny Ramirez gets as many tickets as he wants for the playoffs.
2. C.C. Sabathia
He is not only on fire lately, he's also on the trading block. The Rays have the prospects to get him (David Price), but they won't pull the trigger. Another contender will make the deal and head to the playoffs. Another reason the Rays won't make the deal is because of the money he will command as a free agent.
3. James Shields
I am a big fan of Shields, but I don't think he's ready to lead this team to the playoffs. He is still very young, plus he's only 6-5 on the season. Shields has also showed some signs of immaturity when he decided to fight CoCo Crisp last month, he fanned with the right hook but held up better than the Red Sox traveling secretary.
4. New York Yankees
The Yankees find themselves 6.5 games back in the AL East and I don't think they will win the division. However, they will definitely have a major role on the outcome because they play two series against the Rays in September. The Rays need to hope that Jason Giambi gets rid of his mustache.
5. Experience
If they don't trade Price away at the deadline, the Rays could look to their top prospect to contribute down the stretch and I don't think he will be able to deliver. The Rays don't really have much experience playing in contention down the stretch, plus they rely on so many young players already (Longoria, Upton, Navarro).
Whatever ends up happening in the AL East, it will be an interesting race down the stretch between the Rays and whoever else decides to join the party.
23 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Ryan Boston about 1 year ago
It's nice to finally see someone being realistic with the Rays nowadays. I just can't agree with the Shields comment.
Being 26 years old shouldn't be an argument, inexperienced in the playoffs, should be. He is actually 6-5 on the season, but win-loss records for pitchers are the most useless stat in all of baseball, maybe all of professional sports. Look at ERA and WHIP, though also not the be-all-and-end-all, they give a better look into the pitchers skill level. If you are really going to get into how nasty a pitcher is, check out his peripherals.... 1.0 HR/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.4 K/BB.... certified ace in my book.
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Chet Lemon about 1 year ago
It was Coco Crisp, not Manny that Shields fought. Who's "him" in the fifth point you make? Your points in total are extremely weak.
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Anon about 1 year ago
Uh...he said it was Coco, no where does it say he fought with Manny. And "him" (a word that is not actually printed anywhere in point 5 - perhaps you mean "he") refers to David Price which is plainly stated in the first 4 words of the paragraph.
So...way to attack an article with a completely irrelevant post that did nothing but prove you didn't read it in the first place. Kudos! (sarcasm, by the way, you nincompoop)
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Patrick Murray about 1 year ago
I have to disagree on the Shields comment as well. Like Ryan stated he's a potential ace. Also he doesn't have to lead them to the playoffs on his own, they have another excellent pitcher who is an ace- Scott Kazmir.
But I do agree with you otherwise. Especially points 2 and 5. It will be interesting to see if they will go get anyone in a trade. I think they need to if theyre serious about contending. Also, your right, they have very little experience. The only real veterans they have are Cliff Floyd and Troy Percival. They need to go get a vet in a trade.
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Johnny Green about 1 year ago
I have a feeling the ownership will stick it out. This team isn't built for a quick burst at the playoffs, and trading away David Price would be mortgaging the future. The time is now for the Rays, but now means this season and the next two. Floyd and Percival might be able to lead, and they have bats and starters... we'll see.
Read my article if you wanna see why I think so.
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Kevin Luchansky about 1 year ago
Reason no. 1 is definitely the best - nice write
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Brett Lissenden about 1 year ago
Even if they fold this year they have still successfully made a name for themselves. They have finally become a real Major League team.
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Michael Inglis about 1 year ago
I don't like reasons 2 and 3. C.C. wont have a major impact on the AL race, he might not even be playing for and AL team. Rumor has it the Brewers are in the lead to get him right now.
James Shield, is only 6-5 but his ERA is in the 3s. And just because he had a fight with coco crisp doesn't make him immature. Even, the older players in the league get into fights.
The Rays are a power team with 90 HR (4th in AL) and they have 88 steals (1st in MLB). They also have a good bullpen and play solid defense.
They may or may not win the AL East but i doubt they are going to just go away.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
"Even, the older players in the league get into fights."
The best part of this is, the author knocks a Rays player for getting in a fight, but decides that it was nothing for the Red Sox player to charge the mound. Wouldn't you refer that as backwards logic? Or a terrible bias?
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Bill San Antonio about 1 year ago
james shields, after dan haren, may be the best No. 2 in the game.
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Bill San Antonio about 1 year ago
throw tim lincecum in there also
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Ryan Boston about 1 year ago
Lincecum is probably in the top 5 pitchers overall, nevermind a #2.
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Michael Inglis about 1 year ago
Agreed Ryan, he may win the Cy Young. That guy is nasty.
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Bill San Antonio about 1 year ago
agreed once again. i was still assuming cain was the #1 in san fran.
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Max Iascone about 1 year ago
Shields does sport solid stats not pertaining to W-L record but an even closer look reveals that his ERA at home is below 2 (1.99 before last night) and his ERA on the road is 6.09, win-loss record is a very overrated stat but his actually illustrates shields's inconsistency rather well. He doesn't do well on the road and h,/ along with his entire team, is/are inexperienced, they will get a wild card berth and a first round out but next year they will take the division barring a drastic improvement from an already solid Boston team.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Unlike Kevin, the #1 reason is probably the most pathetic.
At the time of press, the Rays were 4 and 6 against the BoSox. All 4 of their victories came at home, while all 6 of their loses came on the road. While the BoSox have more experience, the Rays clearly have more talent. A team proves this by having a higher winning percentage not only for the season, but also against teams with a .500+ record.
I also have to scoff at the idea that the Rays will not pull off a solid trade. While Price is untouchable (and he should be) there are a lot of other pieces within this organization. This is an organization that rates as the deepest in minor league talent. It had 6 players on BP's top 40. In other words, they have chips upon chips upon chips to play with. While the team may have no ability (although I would put it more in a lack of interest) to sign Sabathia, trading two highly regarded prospects in return for two first round draft picks and an ace pitcher is DEFINITELY not out of the realm of possibility. Anyone who thinks it is, does not understand baseball economics.
I have to agree with a previous commenter that W-L is meaningless. Additionally, he doesn't even have to be the Rays BEST pitcher. Even without a trade he isn't the teams ace. As for being 'immature', I suppose the guy who was 'defending' himself is referred to as immature, right? How about the player who charged the mound?
If you didn't notice, the Rays are 5 and 5 against the Yanks. How come you are so certain that a team owning a split against an opponent would fall flat on their face the next time around?
Experience?
How many games under the Indians belt did they have last year? How about the Tigers the year before that? The White Sox before that? The Marlins before that? Experience is only as good as the talent that utilizes it. I would take an inexperienced BJ Upton over the 'uber' experienced Covelli Crisp any day of the week. I would wager that anyone in baseball would as well.
The fact is, the Rays are an immensely talented ballclub. They have an outstanding minor league system and are here to stay. The club will not back down to anyone, as displayed by the two scraps they have gotten into this season. They are on a roll right now and STILL have not gotten exceptional performances out of anyone besides a couple members of the bullpen. Get Upton, Pena, Longoria, Iwamura, Crawford, Bartlett, Navarro, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine all hot at the same time (which appears to FINALLY be happening) and we will see this team pull away.
After tomorrow, the club will be 3.5 games ahead with an easy 4 game series at the Trop against the pitiful Royals. In the meantime, the BoSox will be fighting it out against the Yanks at the Stadium. It won't come as a surprise to anyone to see the Rays 5.5 or even 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox come Monday evening.
Furthermore, the Rays are said to have one of the easiest schedules down the stretch. Please drop a Boston bias and look through a more open, baseball lens.
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Michael Pope about 1 year ago
Well said Brandon. The Rays are for real and might not make the playoffs, but it won't be because they suddenly realize they're playing over their heads. It would be because injuries, not talent, because this is a well balanced team that wins games with pitching and defense, the customary way to be a winner.
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dsfdsf dsfds about 1 year ago
wow they should definatly not trade away their prospect for c.c. sabathia and they will do great this season and make the playoff and win the AL east. james sheild wasn't imature for throw a punch at coco crisp when he charged. Wow u suck REALLY suck at sports colum righting cause had like 3 bad reasons. and why would James shields lead the team anyways the best pitcher is oviously Kazmir
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Why do you believe they shouldn't trade away, say Wade Davis and Reid Brignac and some other lower level pieces for Sabathia? Without a doubt Sabathia would improve this team and stabilize an already strong rotation. While an argument can be made about losing the prospects, the Rays have an outstanding scouting department and would seemingly only delay having top prospects come aboard by 3 or 4 years as the compensation picks develop.
Although, I would say that Sabathia specifically might be a 'protection' move. Jump in before the Yanks or Sox do.
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Dan Verhaeghe about 1 year ago
the blue jays should also be mentioned into the mix.
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Ben Weixlmann about 1 year ago
To be honest, I don't think they will win the East either, but they should be a lock for the WC.
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Michael Inglis about 1 year ago
Michael, how can you say the Rays are for real and then say they might not make the playoffs?
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Jamie Taylor about 1 year ago
I couldn't disagree with this column more. Kazmir has been an ace for years. Shields was outstanding for all of 2007 as well as 2008, so he is unlikely to fade. Garza was very good in 2007 also, and therefore is unlikely to fade. You have three reliable, top-of-the rotation starters with ERAs under 3.70 (and Kazmir is under 2.70) who are not new to success. Throw in Jackson and Sonnanstine, both with ERAs barely above 4.00, and this is the best starting rotation in the division. Add the best bullpen in the division, and you can see how this team is unlikely to go into any prolongued slump.
Crawford, Upton, and Pena are all having below-average seasons so far, and are much more likely to spark an even better offense in the second half. These guys also play with chemistry, hustle, and enthusiasm every day (imagine if the Yankees ever did that...), making them even better than the sum of their individual parts.
Final win totals: Rays 98, Red Sox 96, Yankees 90.
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