So I was just working on my blog (cheap plug ahem, ahem) and decided that I'd also post my picks here. Agree? Disagree? Argue away
Now onto my UFC 109 predictions.
Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
I'm gonna go with Serra in this one because of the logic of mma math (which never works). What I mean by that is that Hughes tapped Trigg twice, and Serra has better submissions than Hughes, therefore Serra should be able to tap Trigg. Whether or not we'll see that happen im not sure.
Will Serra be able to get the fight to the ground, and if not, who is better on the feet? Logic tells us that by knocking GSP out that Serra is better, but Trigg is no slouch either. This fight may be decided on the feet, but I don't think so. I think Serra will find a way to get it down and submit Trigg.
Matt Serra via third round submission
Dan Miller vs. Damian Maia
The saying "you're only as good as you're last fight" has never rung more true than in the case of Damian Maia. Before the infamous 21 second knockout by Nate Marquardt, people were crowning Maia as the man to beat Anderson. You can deny it now, but it's true. Now, hes seen as just another fighter in the middleweight division.
My pick for the fight is Damian Maia and again I am gonna go out on a limb and use the mma math. Damian Maia submitted Chael Sonnen is about three minutes and Sonnen's wrestling is better than Millers AND Sonnen beat Miller rather soundly last year. Now we have to of course take into account that Millers standup is better than Maia's. Miller is a warrior and I think he will fight to keep the fight going, but he won't have an answer for Maia.
Damian Maia via. 1st round submission
Paulo Thiago vs. Mike Swick
There may not be a more evenly matched fight on the card and I really have been going back and forth on who to pick. On one hand, Paulo Thiago is 1-1 against AKA members and to be honest has been getting thrown right into the deep end against the welterweights best talent. On the other hand, he knocked out Kos and looked impressive against Volkhann in the fall.
Swick was on the verge of finally getting his title shot before Dan Hardy beat him soundly at UFC 105 and now has to re-build. This might sound crazy, but I like Thiago in the fight. I think he feels like hes got something to prove and seems to be a real battler. I think the hidden factor in this fight might be Swick's ever improving wrestling. Can he keep the fight off the mat? We'll see.
Paulo Thiago via. Decision
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
Interesting fight that has potential to be dreadfully boring. Sonnen's style isn't overly appealing to fans. He grinds out decisions using short strikes and advanced position. Marquardt is a better fighter, just ask Sonnen he'll tell you. His wrestling style might work against most, but it won't work against Marquardt, one of the most well rounded fighters in the game.
I suspect that Sonnen will be able to make the fight competitive, but the amount of options that Marquardt has to win this fight just makes me unable to pick against him.
Nate Marquardt via. Decision
Mark Coleman vs. Randy Couture
Ugh, this whole time I wasn't looking forward to this fight, but as it came closer I just can't help myself. I love a fight, plain and simple. So now the oldest fight in history will finally take place. Coleman says he want's is bad, and I believe him. He knows this is his last hurrah and if he doesn't make the most of it, its all downhill from here. It's certainly not a "win or your gone" scenario, but a dismal performance here will guarantee he never headlines a ppv again.
Couture may also be riding into his last sunset as a fighter. He put together a decent performance against Brandon Vera (which many still think Vera won) and now could be potentially just a single fight away from a title shot yet again. As much as i'd like to think this fight will be competitive, I just don't see it. Where is Coleman better than Couture? No where. Couture has continued to improve and I don't see the same evolution from Coleman.
Couture wins this fight. My guess is that it will be a decision not because Coleman will make it competitive, rather just because ' how every Couture fight goes down.
Randy Couture via. Decision