The Tampa Bay Rays are officially on top of the baseball world.
It took three months and a hockey season's worth of games, but the media has finally given in to this young and impressive ball club. On last evenings Baseball Tonight, the ESPN crew took phone calls from local Tampa celebrities including Dick Vitale and Barry Melrose.
Entering the season, I had picked the Rays to win the American League East. To me, this had been a long time coming, but I was confident the moves the club made in the offseason, coupled with years of impressive drafts, would be enough for the club to win what is arguably baseball's toughest division.
Currently, the Rays are playing only a marginal amount over their heads, with an expected win-loss of three wins below their current standing. Expected win-loss, for those who are unfamiliar with the formula, X-WL utilizes runs scored and runs allowed in a Pythagorean-like formula to calculate how many wins and loses a team should have, based on run differential.
The formula is far from an exact science, but often times it comes as a strong predictor of things to come. With the Rays, however, the club has had very few overachievers. If one were to look up and down the roster, the data supports, for the most part, the successes the players have had to this point in the season.
Take, for example, the team's leading hitter, and The Outsiders favorite, Dioner Navarro. Navarro currently supports a .313 batting average. While this figure is far from what was expected from Navarro entering the 2008 season, his .337 batting average of balls in play (BABIP) supports this figure.
The hitter with the highest amount of home runs is rookie Evan Longoria. While the home-run-per-flyball rate (HR/FB) is higher than league average, for a hitter of Longoria's ability, it is not an unsustainable figure.
In fact, there are currently 23 hitters who have a higher HR/FB rate than Longoria. Of whom, only six have a higher line-drive rate, which tells me that Longoria is consistently putting good wood on the ball.
Furthermore, the rest of the regulars, on average, are performing up to expected levels. If they are achieving at a slightly higher rate in one area, they are failing in another.
Take Eric Hinske for example. His HR/FB rate is seven points higher than his career average (which is negatively skewed by a handful of seasons where Hinske was admittedly out of shape).
However, his BABIP is lower then his career average (which is also negatively skewed). Thus, while Hinske may be projected for fewer second-half home runs, his hit-safely rate should increase, and Hinske may not see any difference in his final line.
2 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Bryan Thiel about 1 year ago
The other thing with Hinske is that I think he had a small stretch where, not only was he out of shape, but he was still having trouble with the hand that he broke in his sophomore season which will obviously impact most facets of his game.
The Rays have been fun to watch though this season, although I'm not sure whether they can sustain the momentum to carry them to a divisional title, although I can see them taking the Wild Card easily at this rate. If it comes down to them and Boston then it will certainly be an interesting September/October.
The one thing I'm not seeing happening is Heath Bell coming to Tampa. He's been pegged as a future closer in San Diego and (granted I don't have my ear to the ground for rumors out of there), the idea of dealing him frightens me, especially with the way Trevor Hoffman has aged this season. The scary thing, is that a lot of Bell's stats are slightly higher than last season, so as good as he's been for the Pads this season, he could stand to still improve a little bit more this season.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Bryan,
The Heath Bell scenario was purely speculation on my behalf. And you are correct that he has been tabbed as the closer of the future. However, the Padres have a very intelligent front office, probably one of the most intelligent in all of baseball. Given that the Pads are not in much of a shape to win in the next year or two, they may be willing to part with Heath Bell for a package of mid teir prospects. Say Edwin Jackson, Eduardo Morlan (received from the Twins) and some lower level hitters.
While it may not be probable, its something to watch out for.
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